‘China Seen Readying for Trade War During Trump Presidency’

Chinese COSCO Freighter (Fletcher6)

Voice of America reports that China is preparing for a trade war:

China Seen Readying for Trade War During Trump Presidency

December 21, 2016

China is expected to take a series of defensive and retaliatory measures to counter any U.S. moves to restrict the role of Chinese goods and currency movements in the American economy, as Trump has promised to do.”In the event of a trade war with the United States, China’s response would go well beyond tariff increases,” said Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist for Capital Economics. “U.S. companies would find their products and operations in China subject to tighter regulation that hampered their capacity to do business there.”

“U.S. exports of cars and aircraft would be in the firing line,” he said. China might also subject U.S. companies to tighter regulation that hampers their capacity to do business. Beijing may also encourage its exporters by offering tax rebates to overcome any reduction in export demand in the U.S., Williams said.

In informal discussions, Chinese officials say there is a lot of uncertainty about how the new U.S. president will handle relations with China, and preparations are being made to deal with varied scenarios. …

Penalty corners

Who suffers most in the case of a trade war? China would be the first to be hit, and more severely because the United States is a major market for Chinese goods. America buys three times more than what it sells to China.

But Beijing can take solace in the fact that Trump would end up hurting the American consumer if he imposed a 45 percent duty on Chinese goods, as he has promised to do.The most important items in the Chinese export basket are mobile phones, tablets/laptops and network equipment. A higher tax on these goods would ultimately be paid by U.S. consumers, Williams of Capital Economics said.

Williams does not see the incoming President slapping the 45 percent tax on Chinese goods as he had promised, but hostilities can break out anytime, he warns. http://www.voanews.com/a/china-trade-trump/3643830.html

The imposition of high tariffs will make things cost more and contribute to inflation and likely shortages.

Notice also the following:

What Is the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?

The U.S. trade deficit with China was $365.7 billion in 2015 This is a new record, up slightly from last year’s record of $343 billion…. China’s leaders are desperately trying to get the economy to grow faster to raise its living standards. 12/20/16 https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277

As far as why the Chinese are concerned, let’s not focus on verbal statements from Donald Trump (as they vary a lot), but instead let’s look at the positions at his website:

DONALD J. TRUMP’S VISION

Negotiate fair trade deals that create American jobs, increase American wages, and reduce America’s trade deficit.

Donald J. Trump’s 7 Point Plan To Rebuild the American Economy by Fighting for Free Trade

1. Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has not yet been ratified.

2. Appoint tough and smart trade negotiators to fight on behalf of American workers.

3. Direct the Secretary of Commerce to identify every violation of trade agreements a foreign country is currently using to harm our workers, and also direct all appropriate agencies to use every tool under American and international law to end these abuses.

4. Tell NAFTA partners that we intend to immediately renegotiate the terms of that agreement to get a better deal for our workers. If they don’t agree to a renegotiation, we will submit notice that the U.S. intends to withdraw from the deal. Eliminate Mexico’s one-side backdoor tariff through the VAT and end sweatshops in Mexico that undercut U.S. workers.

5. Instruct the Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator.

6. Instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to bring trade cases against China, both in this country and at the WTO. China’s unfair subsidy behavior is prohibited by the terms of its entrance to the WTO.

7. Use every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes if China does not stop its illegal activities, including its theft of American trade secrets – including the application of tariffs consistent with Section 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/trade/ accessed 12/21/16

The trade deficit that the US has with China is its largest. Three of Donald Trump’s 7 point plan mention China by name, whereas the third item is at least partially directed towards China.

Trade wars have been listed as part of the Twelve ‘grey swan’ events to watch for in 2017?

Trade policies of the USA were a major reason that the Japanese decided to attack Pearl Harbor. That is what then triggered the USA to become officially involved in World War II.

Trade disputes are likely to be a factor that will lead to World War III.

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

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