Will debt derail China and its ‘One Belt, One Road’ plan?
One Belt, One Road Corridors ()
Despite being a major creditor, China is having its own debt issues:
June 6, 2017
China must rein in rapid build-up in local government debt and should implement reforms at the local level to raise transparency and let market forces play a bigger role, an influential government economist said on Tuesday.
“We can’t take a laissez-faire attitude toward local governments’ excessive growth in debt,” Li Yang, Chairman of the National Institution for Finance and Development, told a forum on regional development where researchers and media were in attendance. “We must reform.”
Global investors are increasingly worried about mounting debt in China, with continued efforts by authorities to stimulate the economy threatening to amplify the problem. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/06/06/business/06reuters-china-economy-debt.html
Some believe that its Silk Road project, more officially known as One Belt One Road, is a debt trap. Jim Rickards posted the following about that:
One Belt, One Road, and One Debt Hangover
China is not only one of the world’s largest debtors, it is one of the world’s largest creditors.
China uses debt not in the customary financial manner, but as a political tool to generate employment and maintain social stability. Likewise China uses loans and investment as a tool to advance its strategic interests. This may be good geopolitics in the short run, but it will be a disaster economically in the long run.
Just as Chinese state owned enterprises (SOEs) can’t repay debts to Chinese banks, China’s foreign partners will not be able to repay debts to China itself. These twin disasters-in-the-making may converge in such a way that China’s assets disappear or become illiquid at exactly the time they are most needed to bail-out its own banking system. …
While these assets may outperform Treasury notes over time, they are also illiquid, and would tend to decline in value during a financial panic. This means that about 20%, of China’s reserves are unavailable for critical tasks such as bailing out the banking system or defending the currency.
The second and third initiatives are the New Development Bank, NDB, created by the BRICS in 2014, and the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, AIIB, created by China in 2016. These have participation from 35 countries in the Asia/Australia region, and 18 other countries from outside that region, mostly in Europe. The United States refused to join. …
By far, the most ambitious outbound investment effort by China is the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The “belt” refers to overland routes from central China to Europe. The “road” refers to maritime routes from eastern China to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe.
It is a recreation of the original Silk Road caravan route of the thirteenth century, and China’s glory days as a naval power led by Admiral Zheng He in the Ming Dynasty in the early fifteenth century.
The scope of the One Belt, One Road initiative is immense. …
The problem with One Belt, One Road is that many of the potential recipients of development loans are not highly creditworthy or have a track record of defaulting on debts or requiring substantial debt restructuring in order to stay current.
As with Chinese bank loans to SOEs, the NDB, AIIB, and One Belt, One Road efforts are not primarily economic but political. China is seeking to use its economic clout to create jobs and control critical infrastructure.
In the end, China is attempting to create a geopolitical sphere of influence of even greater scope than the Japanese Empire prior to World War II, called by Japan “The Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.”
As with its other policies, China will turn liquid assets into illiquid assets in order to pursue its ambitions. This could make sense if nothing goes wrong. But, things will go wrong.
China will face a monumental liquidity crisis sooner than later and find that its liquid assets have been turned into bridges to nowhere. 06/05/17 https://dailyreckoning.com/china-belt-road-debt-hangover/
China’s ambitions are immense. It intends to build roads to the Middle East and elsewhere. The ‘Silk Road’ project of China expects to increase China’s influence in Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and even Africa.
The picture at the beginning of this post shows several proposed corridors for the One Belt, One Road (yes, there are more than one)–where, in a sense, all roads lead to China (China is shown in red). The countries shown in orange are all members of China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The corridors shown in black are primarily land routes, while the blue is over the seas.
While I do not know if the One Belt One Road project will bankrupt China, I do believe that at least part of the roads will be built and are likely to be involved in helping military forces one day gather in Armageddon as the following prophecy will come to pass:
12 Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, so that the way of the kings from the east might be prepared. 13 And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs coming out of the mouth of the dragon, out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet. 14 For they are spirits of demons, performing signs, which go out to the kings of the earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty.
15 “Behold, I am coming as a thief. Blessed is he who watches, and keeps his garments, lest he walk naked and they see his shame.”
16 And they gathered them together to the place called in Hebrew, Armageddon. (Revelation 16:12-16)
A related video is available: Is China paving roads to Armageddon?
But what about debt and creditors and China? Will China be the power that leads the world?
While on the surface China looks poised to lead the world economically because of its vast population and economic success in the past several decades, the Bible shows that it will be a power in Europe that will lead the final Babylonian economic power that will dominate the world just prior to the return of Jesus:
1 Then I stood on the sand of the sea. And I saw a beast rising up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and on his horns ten crowns, and on his heads a blasphemous name. 2 Now the beast which I saw was like a leopard, his feet were like the feet of a bear, and his mouth like the mouth of a lion. The dragon gave him his power, his throne, and great authority. 3 And I saw one of his heads as if it had been mortally wounded, and his deadly wound was healed. And all the world marveled and followed the beast. 4 So they worshiped the dragon who gave authority to the beast; and they worshiped the beast, saying, “Who is like the beast? Who is able to make war with him?”
5 And he was given a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies, and he was given authority to continue for forty-two months. 6 Then he opened his mouth in blasphemy against God, to blaspheme His name, His tabernacle, and those who dwell in heaven. 7 It was granted to him to make war with the saints and to overcome them. And authority was given him over every tribe, tongue, and nation. 8 All who dwell on the earth will worship him, whose names have not been written in the Book of Life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world. (Revelation 13:1-8)
1 Then one of the seven angels who had the seven bowls came and talked with me, saying to me, “Come, I will show you the judgment of the great harlot who sits on many waters, 2 with whom the kings of the earth committed fornication, and the inhabitants of the earth were made drunk with the wine of her fornication.”
3 So he carried me away in the Spirit into the wilderness. And I saw a woman sitting on a scarlet beast which was full of names of blasphemy, having seven heads and ten horns. 4 The woman was arrayed in purple and scarlet, and adorned with gold and precious stones and pearls, having in her hand a golden cup full of abominations and the filthiness of her fornication. 5 And on her forehead a name was written:
MYSTERY, BABYLON THE GREAT, THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS AND OF THE ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH.
6 I saw the woman, drunk with the blood of the saints and with the blood of the martyrs of Jesus. And when I saw her, I marveled with great amazement.
7 But the angel said to me, “Why did you marvel? I will tell you the mystery of the woman and of the beast that carries her, which has the seven heads and the ten horns. 8 The beast that you saw was, and is not, and will ascend out of the bottomless pit and go to perdition. And those who dwell on the earth will marvel, whose names are not written in the Book of Life from the foundation of the world, when they see the beast that was, and is not, and yet is.
9 “Here is the mind which has wisdom: The seven heads are seven mountains on which the woman sits. (Revelation 17:1-10)
18 And the woman whom you saw is that great city which reigns over the kings of the earth.” (Revelation 17:18)
Since the Beast arises from the Mediterranean Sea (cf. Daniel 7:28; Numbers 34:6-7; Joshua 1:4; 9:1; 23:4; Ezekiel 47:13-16) and the “great city which reigns over the kings of the earth” is the seven-hilled (Revelation 17:10) Rome, the final Babylonian power is clearly European, and not Chinese (watch also Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European? and Is China THE Threat to the United States of America?).
Now as far as debt goes, China is a major creditor to the world, yet if countries that owe it money default, this will cause China problems. This includes the debt owed to it by the USA. “The U.S. debt to China is $1.059 trillion, as of February 2017” (https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355). Unless it divests its holdings of USA debt, it will be affected when the USA essentially will be considered in default by its creditors (cf. Habakkuk 2:6-8). This would be expected to affect China (and likely greatly affect Australia in other ways–watch Are Chinese threats against Australia for real?).
Despite its success, China faces several challenges internally as well. Notice the following from 2010:
China will do anything to grow its economy, as the alternatives will lead to political unrest. A lot of peasants moved to the cities in search of higher-paying jobs during the go-go times. Because China lacks the social safety net of the developed world, unemployed people aren’t just inconvenienced by the loss of their jobs, they starve (this explains the high savings rate in China) and hungry people don’t complain, they riot. Once you look at what’s taking place in the Chinese economy through that lens, the decisions of its leaders start making sense, or at least become understandable. (Vitaliy N. Katsenelson. China: No Shortcut to Greatness. The Daily Reckoning, March 1, 2010)
So, China has to be careful. It is likely to have unrest, even though it is getting wealthier. The 21st century will not be “China’s century” as some have claimed. China has a lot of real problems. Notice also, for example, the following:
According to a series of newspaper reports, online versions of which appear to have vanished into the country’s not-so-thin air, more than 30 environmental and other officials from the Nantong area were implicated in a scandal that involves bribery and turning a blind eye to pollution problems. (Kazer W. Zhang K. China’s Environmental Protection Racket. Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2013 http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/02/01/chinas-environmental-protection-racket/)
The health of the Chinese is being affected by pollution and official corruption (see also Record air pollution in Beijing, water pollution too).
While China has grow tremendously economically, one of the things that most Westerners do not realize is that China has a system that prevents its citizens from agrarian areas from having the same rights as those in urban areas. It is called the hukou. Here is more information about that:
The hukou
Through a rigorous and rigid household registration system designed to control the movement of China’s 1.3 billion people, the central government classifies all its citizens as either city dwellers or rural peasants. The registration, also known in Chinese as hukou, determines not only a citizen’s residence but also what kind of social services individuals are eligible for…In Beijing, which has an estimated 5 million migrant workers, none of these people are allowed to obtain state-sponsored health care or schooling if their hukou is registered in their hometowns—which most likely it is. As a result, their children—many of whom are born in the Chinese capital—can only attend privately-run and unapproved schools. (Mong A, Gu B. In Beijing, 40,000 students stranded. MSNBC, August 19, 2011. http://behindthewall.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/19/7413538-in-beijing-40000-students-stranded?lite)
Even people who move from agrarian regions to the cities, still are registered as agrarian/rural and do not get the same rights or even education for their children. This disparity, combined with severe pollution, corruption, and a host of other problems, will affect China more than most realize–despite its generally rising wealth–a lot of which is invested in places that may default.
Now the Bible does say that all trading nations will have become wealthy trading with Babylon (the restored European Empire–not Asia), and that they really will prosper during the beginning years of the great tribulation:
3 For all the nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth have become rich through the abundance of her luxury (Revelation 18:3).
13 Javan, Tubal, and Meshech were your traders. They bartered human lives and vessels of bronze for your merchandise. 14 Those from the house of Togarmah traded for your wares with horses, steeds, and mules (Ezekiel 27:13-14).
Thus, merchandising Asia (Javan, Tubal, Meshech, and others), as the world’s most populous region, is prophesied to attain wealth from the coming restored European Empire, but it will not then be the economically most powerful block of nations in the world. It may well be because of debt defaults and internal unrest that China will not have the abilities to lead the world this century as it seems to hope.
That being said, I still believe that China will have at least some success with its “Silk Road” initiative, and that some of what it is intending to build will be used by troops that will ultimately gather in Armageddon.
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
Is China paving roads to Armageddon? China is working on something known as the ‘Silk Road’ project or the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. NBC reports that China intends to spend one trillion dollars to build roads, bridges, railroads, and maritime facilities to reach from China to Europe and China to the Middle East. Over 60 nations, including Russia, are involved with this. Could this Silk Road project possibly produce thoroughfares that could be used by troops that will amass at Armageddon? Dr. Thiel discusses this project and some of its potential prophetic ramifications in this video.
Armageddon Who is involved and when will this gathering happen? Here is also a video from Dr. Thiel, from Tel Megiddo in Israel: Armageddon.
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 1: Genesis and Chinese Characters Where did the Chinese people come from? This article provides information showing that the Chinese peoples must have known about various accounts in the Book of Genesis up until their dispersion after the Tower of Babel. Here is a link to a version of this article in Spanish: ¿Prueban los caracteres chinos la exactitud de la Biblia?
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 2: The Sabbath and Some of God’s Witness in China When did Christianity first come to China? And is there early evidence that they observed the seventh day sabbath?
Asia in Prophecy What is Ahead for Asia? Who are the “Kings of the East”? What will happen to nearly all the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and others of Asia? China in prophecy, where? Who has the 200,000,000 man army related to Armageddon? A YouTube video of interest may be Is China THE Threat to the United States of America?
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe? Here is a link to a video titled: Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European?
European Technology and the Beast of Revelation Will the coming European Beast power would use and develop technology that will result in the taking over of the USA and its Anglo-Saxon allies? Is this possible? What does the Bible teach? Here is a related YouTube video: Military Technology and the Beast of Revelation.
The Large Hadron Collider has Military Potential Some say this European project is only peaceful. So why is it working on capturing antimatter? Here is a link to a related video: Could the Large Hadron Collider lead to destruction?
Must the Ten Kings of Revelation 17:12 Rule over Ten Currently Existing Nations? Some claim that these passages refer to a gathering of 10 currently existing nations together, while one group teaches that this is referring to 11 nations getting together. Is that what Revelation 17:12-13 refers to? The ramifications of misunderstanding this are enormous. A related sermon is titled Ten Kings of Revelation and the Great Tribulation.
Two Horned Beast of Revelation and 666 Who is 666? This article explains how the COG views this, and compares this to Ellen White. Here is a link to a prophetic video Six Financial Steps Leading to 666?
The Mark of Antichrist What is the mark of Antichrist? What have various ones claimed? Here is a link to a related sermon What is the ‘Mark of Antichrist’?
Mark of the Beast What is the mark of the Beast? Who is the Beast? What have various ones claimed the mark is? What is the ‘Mark of the Beast’?
The Eurasian Union, the Kings of the East, and Bible Prophecy Is there a Eurasian union that will be formed? Is one being formed right now? Are any leaders working on that in the 21st century? Does the Bible teach that there will be a Eurasian union? If some type of Eurasian union is formed, who might it benefit and who will it destroy? A related video would be Is The Eurasian Union Rising?
Russia and Ukraine: Their Origins and Prophesied Future Russia in prophecy. Where do the Russians come from? What about those in the Ukraine? What is prophesied for Russia and its allies? What will they do to the Europeans that supported the Beast in the end? There is also a video sermon available: Russia in the Bible and in Prophecy and a video sermonette available: Ukraine in Prophecy?
Is Russia the King of the North? Some claim it is. But what does the Bible teach? Here is a link to a video, also titled Is Russia the King of the North?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? In the Spanish language check out ¿Quién es el Rey del Norte? Here is a link to a video titled: The Future King of the North.
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. Information is also in the YouTube sermons titled Where are the Ten Lost Tribes? Why does it matter? and British are the Covenant People. A short YouTube of prophetic interest may be: Are Chinese threats against Australia for real?
Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
Does God Have a 6,000 Year Plan? What Year Does the 6,000 Years End? Was a 6000 year time allowed for humans to rule followed by a literal thousand year reign of Christ on Earth taught by the early Christians? Does God have 7,000 year plan? What year may the six thousand years of human rule end? When will Jesus return? 2026 or 20xx? There is also a video titled The 6000 Year Plan: Is the end of humanity’s reign almost up?
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2017, 2018, or 2019? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede comenzar la Gran Tribulación en 2016 o 2017? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? You can also see the English language sermon videos: The Great Tribulation from the Mount of Olives and Can the Great Tribulation begin before 2020? A shorter video is: Will the Great Tribulation Start in 2017?
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