UCG: Can the Dollar Fall?

The lead article in the June 2009 issue of UCG’s World News & Prophecy contained the following:

Could the Dollar Fall?

…by Darris McNeely

Ending the dollar’s role in the world economy is not an easy matter. The Wall Street Journal wrote, “… Central banks around the world hold more U.S. dollars and dollar securities than they do assets denominated in any other individual foreign currency. Such reserves can be used to stabilize the value of the central banks’ domestic currencies” (“China Takes Aim at Dollar,” March 24, 2009).

Before the dollar, the British pound sterling formed the underpinning of the global economy. It took two world wars and several decades to change from the pound to the dollar as the world standard. Since the end of World War II, the dollar has been king.

Although the current financial problems ignited in America have led to a global meltdown, it will take more than what we have already experienced to topple America from its current role. That is not to say it could not or will not happen. At the current pace of events, it seems it will not happen in the near term.

Creating another world currency requires several factors to be in place. Research analysts at Stratfor Global Intelligence outlined what those factors would be:

“As to a world beyond the dollar, the issue is that a reserve currency is not decided upon; it creates itself. Two things are needed to create a reserve currency. First, there must be sufficient liquidity to support a global system. That requires a central bank with an enormous amount of autonomy from a state government, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is unparalleled on this count. Not even the European Central Bank can compete. Second, the economy upon which the currency is based must be large enough to withstand fluctuations caused by other economies buying and selling its assets in massive amounts. Again, the United States is the only economy that potentially could qualify…”…

What would it mean for you?

What would it mean for the American consumer if the dollar were no longer the world’s reserve currency?

Since the end of World War II, the dollar has been the dominant world currency. For most living Americans this is the world into which they were born. This is all they have known. Americans enjoy one of the world’s highest living standards due to the stability and wealth created by America’s dominant economic role.

Yet the United States is now the world’s largest debtor nation ($10.6 trillion)…

Here is what would happen in the United States if we woke up one morning to find the dollar was no longer the number one world currency.

1. Everything Americans import would cost more—everything.. .

2. The credit market would collapse. Investors would flee toxic assets, further locking up the economy.

3. The U.S. Federal Reserve would print more money to combat the credit squeeze and the likely result would be hyperinflation, meaning higher prices for available goods. Remember the stories of Weimar Germany where it took a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread? Not pretty.

4. American power and influence in the world would seriously decline…

5. Big losers from the fall of the dollar would include Japan and Latin America. Because they hold much of America’s debt, China and the Persian Gulf states would see huge losses. Israel and Egypt would also suffer because of massive amounts of American aid they would lose. What this would mean to the Middle East calculus is unknown, but Egypt could be destabilized as a result.

6. World politics would be altered. The vacuum of power created would be contested. The EU, which would stand to gain from the fall of the dollar, would be among the chief contenders. China would no doubt make a play as well, but a number of factors would hinder its bid. Stability would rise out of the potential period of chaos when another power would became the global economy’s main engine. America’s time in the sun would be over.

7. American lifestyles would change radically…What this would mean to the social fabric of the nation is unknown. But our way of life would dramatically change…

America losing the pride of her power?

Those pushing to create a different world are no doubt working hard to bring about the demise of the dollar and thus America’s role in the world. In this publication we often speak of America losing “the pride of [its] power” (Leviticus 26:19). Military might is what we think of first in this regard; however, nothing would so radically change America’s leading role in the world as the dollar losing its reserve status.

For one, America’s crippling foreign debt would get worse with decreased ability to finance the burden. In time the country would be at the mercy of those holding its obligations, with little room to maneuver. Economic slavery would be on the horizon.

However, it’s unlikely this is going to happen in the near term. China and several Arab states hold too many dollar-denominated instruments to see this change. They would lose too much. Right now the United States is too big, too rich and too powerful to fail. There is too much at stake on the global scene.

That does not mean things couldn’t change—and change quickly—but the proper circumstances have to be in place.

It will not happen until the God of heaven wants it to happen. God has blessed America with its wealth, power and resulting prestige. He will move to change that when it fits His timing for His great plan for all the nations.

The articles makes several good points, but repeatedly very one dangerous one.

UCG is correct that God will decide when the USA dollar will fall. But the dangerous tone of the article is that it only MAY happen, it will LIKELY NOT happen for a long time, and most likely it will be GRADUAL.

Let me explain several factors that UCG overlooked.

To start with, while some changes will be gradual, ultimately a quick fall will occur.

It should also be pointed out that the economy of the European Union is larger than that of the USA, hence there is in existence currently a potential replacement that will meet all the necessary criteria. Stratfor Global Intelligence’s claim that only the USA economy could potentially qualify is not true (though the EU needs a little more time to be fully ready–but it certainly is potentially ready).

While acknowledging that the USA is the most indebted nation in the world, UCG’s article apparently ignored the following scriptures:

3 For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry…6 “Will not all these take up a proverb against him, And a taunting riddle against him, and say, ‘Woe to him who increases What is not his–how long? And to him who loads himself with many pledges’? 7 Will not your creditors rise up suddenly? Will they not awaken who oppress you? And you will become their booty. 8 Because you have plundered many nations, All the remnant of the people shall plunder you (Habakkuk 2:3,6-8).

While UCG”s article makes it sound like things will get worse if the dollar falls, it seems to imply that it would not be an absolute disaster that will quickly result in the takeover of the USA (as well as its Anglo-descended allies).

Additionally, the EU’s euro is even now getting in place to be the replacement reserve currency for the world. And while most of the world still uses the USA dollar as the reserve currency, the euro has made great strides, which have been very quick by historical standards. And when various other disasters hit the USA–which WILL COME TO PASS–that did not hit the old British Empire–the change will happen much more quickly.

Another brief point that I wish to mention is that when the USA dollar truly falls, it will be for practical purposes worthless. This will shake the confidence of people all around the world about ALL paper currencies. This will cause problems for most of the remaining currencies in the world. This will cause problems.

But notice the Bible shows that the coming European Beast power, known as the King of the North, will accumulate a lot of gold and silver:

43 He shall have power over the treasures of gold and silver (Daniel 11:43)

This rapid accumulation of precious metals, combined with the Beast power’s military conquests (Daniel 11:39-42; Revelation 13:4), will quickly establish the European currency (which may or may not, but likely will be, the euro) as the premier currency.

UCG’s approach to prophecy still is not “hot”, though its members do not seem to believe that it is “cold” (cf. Revelation 3:15-16). It remains my contention that many within UCG, even if they are interested in prophecy, will simply not be ready when certain prophetic matters line up if they stay there.

But you, whether you are in any church or not, can be.

Some articles of possibly related interest may include:

Are You Saved? Do You Love Jesus? What is a True Christian? What is the Gospel? Evangelist Richard Ames answers those important questions.
What is the Meaning of Life? Who does God say is happy? What is your ultimate destiny? Do you really know? Does God actually have a plan for YOU personally?
Attending the Church of Choice This article discusses whose choice is important to worship God; should you attend the church of your choice or the church of God’s choice?
Unity: Which COG for You? Why so many groups? Why is there lack of unity in the Churches of God? Has it always been this way? What can/should be done about it?
Differences between the Living Church of God and United Church of God This article provides quotes information from the two largest groups which had their origins in WCG as well as commentary.
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, British, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States?
Prophecies of Barack Obama? Eight reasons why Barack Obama is apocalyptic and eight reasons why Barack Obama is not the Antichrist. This article includes many biblical and non-biblical prophecies, from around the world, that seem to discuss Barack Obama. Did Nostradamus predict Barack Obama dealing with the Antichrist? Might Barack Obama set the stage for the kings of the North and South as at least one Shiite prophecy suggests? This is the longest and most complete article on this page on Barack Obama prophecies. Read it and decide for yourself if President Obama seems to be fulfilling various prophecies.
There are Many COGs: Why Support the Living Church of God? This is an article for those who wish to more easily sort out the different COGs. It really should be a MUST READ for current and former WCG/GCI members or any interested in supporting the faithful church. It also explains a lot of what the COGs are all about.