CBS: Why the Great Recession may be with us for years

Two economists at the US Federal Reserve have conducted research that concludes that the USA economy may not bounce back from what CBS is calling the “Great Recession” for years:

Why the Great Recession may be with us for years

November 18, 2014

Economic shocks are supposed to be temporary, most economists would say. The ensuing recovery might be slow, but eventually consumers and businesses start spending again, the financial markets’ “animal spirits” awaken and growth returns to normal. …

The fallout from the Great Recession and grindingly slow recovery has many people wondering just how long it will be before things return to normal. Recent research, including a study out this month by economists Robert F. Martin, Teyanna Munyan and Beth Anne Wilson of the Federal Reserve, also calls this long-held belief into question.Their work, which examines the experience of 23 countries since 1970, makes two major, and related, points. First, economic output doesn’t return to normal following a recession, especially a major one. Second, that requires forecasters who were expecting growth to return to trend to instead repeatedly ratchet down their measures of how quickly things are bouncing back. …The economy doesn’t return to trend so much as the trend is revised downward to reflect weaker economic output.

“Interestingly, much of the downward revision to estimates of trend output happens well into the recovery,” the authors note. “In particular, as economies recover and the lower level of actual output persists, potential output is gradually revised down toward actual GDP.”

One chart in the report nicely illustrates how this plays out. The black line indicates actual U.S. GDP, while the other lines represent different growth estimates (or “vintages,” as the jargon has it) produced in different years. Notice how as time passes, these estimates have moved closer and closer to actual GDP:

The conclusion is that demand shocks may have a permanent impact on a country’s GDP. … What does that mean in practice? In the job market, it could mean that the long-term unemployed never find work.

If the Fed researchers are correct, that has enormous implications for what might be necessary to help the U.S. economy get back on track. Government policies to maintain employment — by modernizing the country’s aging roads, bridges and other infrastructure, for example — may avoid some of the permanent effects of the cataclysm that followed the 2008 financial crisis. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-permanent-effects-of-the-great-recession/

In plain English, what the above is saying is:

Because of recessions, people end up deciding to buy less than they did before.
Less buying means more people will remain unemployed.
Economists are wrong to think people will buy at pre-recession levels.
The implied ‘solution’ is for governments to increase spending to get the economy to the desired level.

Let me state that the proposed solution is to hope that the government can keep spending what it does not have.

The US Federal Reserve has done this through its ‘quantitative easing’ programs that essentially are a modern way to debase currency. The Bible warns against cheapening the money supply:

4 Take away the dross from silver (Proverbs 25:4a).

25 I will turn My hand against you, And thoroughly purge away your dross, And take away all your alloy. (Isaiah 1:25)

22 Your silver has become dross, Your wine mixed with water. (Isaiah 1:22)

Dross is a cheaper metal that is normally placed inside a covering of a precious metal like silver. Governments began to do this thousands of years ago when they had financial problems. Putting dross into silver cheapens currency, just like putting water into wine dilutes the wine’s value. In modern times, government spending in excess of revenues and the 21st century quantitative easing programs (in the USA with names such as QE1, QE2, and QE3, from the Federal Reserve) are a way to dilute the value of currencies. This is not the biblical solution to US economic problems.

The other biblical reality is that when governments spend money that they do not have they often tend to borrow. This keeps happening and happening in the USA. So much so, that the USA is in more debt than any country in the history of the world. The Bible shows that this will not end well:

3 For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry…5 Indeed, because he transgresses by wine, He is a proud man… 6 “Will not all these take up a proverb against him, And a taunting riddle against him, and say, ‘Woe to him who increases What is not his–how long? And to him who loads himself with many pledges’? 7 Will not your creditors rise up suddenly? Will they not awaken who oppress you? And you will become their booty. 8 Because you have plundered many nations, All the remnant of the people shall plunder you. Because of men’s blood And the violence of the land and the city, And of all who dwell in it. (Habakkuk 2:3,5,6-8).

The above prophecy DOES apply to the USA in the 21st century–it is specifically for the appointed time of the end. The USA will be taken over as Habakkuk 2, Daniel 11:39, and other prophecies teach, and its debt will be one of the reasons. The USA shifted from being the world’s largest creditor nation to debtor nation once it began to ‘legalize’ abortion. Other sins that it advocates are the real cause of its economic woes, but most government officials will not recognize that.

Jim Rickards has claimed that the USA is in for a 25 year depression (see ‘Project Prophecy’ 25 Year Depression). While the USA economy will have some ups and not all downs before it collapses, some see problems predominating.

Do you see the winds of change in the USA? If so, what do you plan to do about it? Is your hope, like some at the Federal Reserve, that the US government will continue to spend money it does not have on infrastructure projects?

Surely any who claim to believe the Bible realize that will not work indefinitely.

Ultimately, the US dollar itself will have no monetary value (it may have some minor value as a fuel source, novelty, or something else).

Although some realize that the USA is a superpower in decline, most do not really understand how bad it will get.

Without national repentance the USA is doomed. Since the USA seems to be going more into sin nationally, that type of national repentance seems unlikely. Yet, personal repentance is still possible.

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2015, 2016, or 2017? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede comenzar la Gran Tribulación en 2014 o 2015? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? You can also see the English language sermon video: The Great Tribulation from the Mount of Olives.
Project Prophecy: Economic Collapse Starting in 2015? Jim Rickards once worked for the CIA and also was once part of a a USA government program called called ‘Project Prophecy.’ He has a video were he claims that starting in 2015, the USA may have economic collapse resulting in a 25-Year Great Depression. He mainly cites debt figures and claims advises alternatives to the USA dollar which he says will collapse? What did Rand Paul state? Can the USA dollar collapse?
Just What Do You Mean — Repentance? Do you know what repentance is? Have you truly repented? Repented of what? Herbert W. Armstrong wrote this as a booklet on this important subject.
When You Sin: Do You Really Repent? This is an article by Charles F. Hunting. A related sermon is Confess to God and truly repent.
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. Information is also in the YouTube sermons titled Where are the Ten Lost Tribes? Why does it matter? and British are the Covenant People. A short YouTube of prophetic interest may be Barack Obama and the State of the Apocalypse.
Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
British are the Covenant People What do ‘British’ and ‘Britain’ mean in Hebrew? Are the descendants of the Anglo-Saxons people of the covenant? Does the British royal family connect to the throne of David? What does the Bible teach? What does history show us? Is there any DNA evidence related to British-Israelism? When did Christianity make it to the British Isles? Could Jeremiah have made it to the British Isles? What type of Christians made it to the British Isles? Did the last King of England believe in British Israelism?
WTO/TTIP and the Babylonian Beast Will international trade agreements like WTO/TTIP/CETA lead to the fulfillment of end time prophecies concerning the Babylonian Beast power that the Book of Revelation warns against? What does the Bible teach? A related video would be WTO Trade Deal and the Rise of the European Beast Power.
Can those in the USA/UK see the Handwriting on the Wall? Is everything fine in the USA/UK or is it like the days of Noah? Can we learn from the handwriting that appeared on a wall thousands of years ago? Here is a link to a related YouTube video Can you see the ‘Handwriting on the Wall’?
Abortion, the Bible, and a Woman’s Right to Choose Do you know what the Bible teaches on this? Has the Roman Catholic Church allowed abortions? What about the real Church of God? Some may also, or instead, wish to view the YouTube video Abortion, the Bible, and US Debt.
The Bible Condemns Homosexuality “Same-sex marriage” for “gays” and lesbians is becoming more acceptable to many. What does the Bible teach about homosexuality? Can homosexuals change?
Pornography: A scourge on society Is pornography harmless fun? Does the Bible teach anything about it? What are the views of some involved with it? Here is a link to a YouTube video Pornography: Harmless Fun or a Scourge on Society?
British and American Moral Decay Public nudity is becoming more prevalent in the Anglo-Saxon lands. What are some of the consequences?
Canada in Prophecy: What Does Bible Prophecy, Catholic Prophecy, and other Predictions Suggest About the Future of Canada? There are prophecies that suggest involvement with Canada. And many are not positive about its future.
Protestant and Church of God views of the United States in Bible Prophecy Is the USA mentioned in Bible prophecy? Some Protestants say yes, while others say no. What does the Bible really teach? Learn the truth about this. There is also a video available: Is The United States Mentioned In Bible Prophecy?
Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Edition for Second Obama Term This is a 160 page book for people truly interested in prophecies related to Barack Obama and the United States, including learning about many that have already been fulfilled (which the book documents in detail) and those that will be fulfilled in the future. It also has a chapter about a Republican choice. This book is available to order at www.barackobamaprophecy.com. The physical book can also be purchased at Amazon from the following link: Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States: Is Barack Obama Fulfilling Biblical, Islamic Catholic, Kenyan, and other America-Related Prophecies? What About Republican Leaders? Second Edition for Second Obama Term.
Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Term-Amazon Kindle edition. This electronic version is available for only US$2.99. And you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to for your free Kindle reader and then go to Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Term-Amazon Kindle edition.
Bible News Prophecy channel. Dr. Thiel has produced many YouTube videos for the BibleNewsProphecy channel. And you can find them at that channel.