Brexit and the EU: The UK threatens an alternative

Philip Hammond, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer

The United Kingdom is signalling that it may not cave into European demands for trade related to its Brexit vote to leave the EU:

Brexit: UK ‘could change economic model’ if single market access denied

15 January 2017

The UK may be forced to change its “economic model” if it is locked out of the single market after Brexit, Chancellor Philip Hammond has said.

Mr Hammond said the government would not “lie down” and would “do whatever we have to do” to remain competitive.

He had been asked by a German newspaper if the UK could become a “tax haven” by further lowering corporation tax.

Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn said his comments sounded like “a recipe for some kind of trade war with Europe”. …

In an interview with German Welt am Sonntag newspaper, Mr Hammond said he was “optimistic” a reciprocal deal on market access could be struck, and that he hoped the UK would “remain in the mainstream of European economic and social thinking”.

“But if we are forced to be something different, then we will have to become something different,” he said.

“If we have no access to the European market, if we are closed off, if Britain were to leave the European Union without an agreement on market access, then we could suffer from economic damage at least in the short-term.

“In this case, we could be forced to change our economic model and we will have to change our model to regain competitiveness. And you can be sure we will do whatever we have to do.

“The British people are not going to lie down and say, too bad, we’ve been wounded. We will change our model, and we will come back, and we will be competitively engaged.”

Asked about Mr Hammond’s comments during an interview on The Andrew Marr Show Mr Corbyn said “He appears to be making a sort of threat to EU community saying ‘well, if you don’t give us exactly what we want, we are going to become this sort of strange entity on shore of Europe where there’ll be very low levels of corporate taxation, and designed to undermine the effectiveness or otherwise of industry across Europe.’

“It seems to me a recipe for some kind of trade war with Europe in the future. That really isn’t a very sensible way forward.”

Mr Corbyn also said Mrs May “appears to be heading us in the direction of a sort of bargain basement economy”, adding: “It seems to me an extremely risky strategy.” http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38628428

15 January 2017

Theresa May will announce that Britain is seeking a clean and hard Brexit in a speech this week that will promise to create a “strong new partnership” with the European Union.

The prime minister will finally lay her cards on the table, making clear that the UK is set to pull out of the single market and the European customs union in order to regain control of immigration and end the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

Downing Street staff expect her words to cause a “market correction” that could lead to a fresh fall in the pound.

But in an effort to reassure voters who backed “remain”, Ms May will say “global Britain” can prosper on its own and indicate that she is prepared to strike a transitional deal to ensure that British business avoids a cliff-edge departure from the EU.

In an attempt to avoid a tariff war, she will tell fellow EU leaders that the UK wants them to succeed.

Writing in The Sunday Times today, the Brexit secretary, David Davis, makes clear that Britain is seeking a new deal with the EU which will differ from the current one.

“We don’t want the EU to fail, we want it to prosper politically and economically, and we need to persuade our allies that a strong new partnership with the UK will help the EU to do that,” he writes.

Signalling that a transitional deal is on the cards, Davis adds: “If it proves necessary, we have said we will consider time for implementation of new arrangements.”

It is understood that Brexit ministers such as Boris Johnson and Liam Fox are winning the argument that the UK must leave the customs union in order to maximise the potential of deals with non-EU countries. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/theresa-may-calls-for-clean-and-hard-brexit/news-story/dda9681f06ab7760333ac4d2eed65eeb

So, the UK apparently has a plan B.

It would seem that the UK’s plan A is the optimistic view that it can leave the EU, maintain free trade with the EU, and not have to pay the EU much or anything, and not have to accept EU immigration.

Plan B seems to be to tell the EU that it will pull out completely, impose tariffis on the EU if the EU does that to the UK, and to essentially tell the EU that it really does not need it.

And the reality is likely to be some combination of plans A & B, and other items, after negotiations begin.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has said that she is planning on triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty in March 2017, which starts a two-year clock for the official departure of the UK from the European Union. That is actually not a lot of time considering the complicated nature of the EU and trade agreements. Presuming all happens according to schedule, we would see the UK will be out of the EU by the Spring of 2019.

At that time, it will be free to have its own deals with other nations, like the USA. Donald Trump called for direct deals with the UK within hours of when the Brexit results were known last June. Donald Trump was one of the only major leaders outside of the UK to publicly support the Brexit-leave vote before that vote.

Last month, the UK’s Boris Johnson laid out some of his position on European tariff threats because of the Brexit vote:

4 December 2016

The UK should not have to pay “large” sums to the EU to trade with it after Brexit, Boris Johnson has said.

The idea of the UK paying for tariff-free access to the EU’s internal market has been mooted in recent days.

The foreign secretary told the BBC’s Andrew Marr that the question of whether the UK would pay anything at all was “pure speculation”, but if it did, any payments had to be “sensible”.

Critics say leaving the single market would be an “act of self-harm”. …

Pressed on suggestions by his cabinet colleague, the Brexit secretary David Davis, that the UK could pay for tariff-free access to the single market, Mr Johnson – who was a prominent Leave campaigner – said he was not “going to get into the minutiae” before negotiations began.

“That is something that obviously David Davis is considering. It doesn’t mean that a decision has been taken,” he said. …

But he hinted that this would not extend to actually paying to have to access to the common rules of the single market, without any penalties or extra levies.

“I have given you an indication of the kind of payments that I think might be sensible,” he told Andrew Marr.

“My own view is that I see no reason why those payments should be large. And I do see a big opportunity for us to spend the money we are getting back on other priorities.” …

The EU is under pressure in many quarters to drive a hard bargain with the UK but Mr Johnson dismissed suggestions the UK would be punished for voting out.

“It may get pretty hairy at times and there may be some difficult bits, but beneath it all there is a massive fondness for the UK and a desire to do the best possible deal.” http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38200112

While I believe that Boris Johnson has overstated the ‘fondness’ that the EU has for the UK, I will state that influential ones in the EU see a decent deal with the UK in the interest of their nation and/or the EU. We will see how this works out.

Both the USA and UK are talking about tariffs. Tariffs can lead to trade wars, and trade wars can lead to real wars. The Bible teaches that Europe will one day, relatively soon, dominate international trade (cf. Revelation 18).

The situations in the USA and UK will likely drive them closer and end up with some type of trade deal between the two of them. Politically, Donald Trump and the UK may decide this is advantageous.

The EU does not care for various positions of Donald Trump or the UK. A real war between Europe and the USA (with the UK basically on the USA’s side) will come (Daniel 8:25; 11:39). I have written for many years that trade disputes would be a factor.

Back in 1971, the late Herbert W. Armstrong wrote the following:

Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III?

Either we start raising high tariff barriers against other countries, starting a TRADE WAR which in time will trigger the nuclear war that will DESTROY US – or, American workers are going to have to MEET the competition of the workers in other countries , by lowering living standards. Obviously American workers are not going to choose to do the latter. And if they don’t – well, THE HANDWRITING IS ON OUR NATIONAL WALL. (Armstrong HW. Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III? Plain Truth, 1971)

And while his basic impression of timing was off, I believe he was correct that trade issues will be a factor that will trigger WWIII. A war that will be against the USA, Canada, and UK by a power that will reorganize (Revelation 17:12-13) and then rise in Europe. A Europe that is angry at the UK for Breixt and one that is mad at the USA for a host of reasons (including decisions of its current President Obama and statements by its President-elect Donald Trump).

One day Europe will take steps to ‘eliminate the competition’ so to speak.

The departure of the UK from the EU is beginning to move the UK closer to the USA on more trade matters. I also believe that one-day it will come back to haunt the UK. The EU leadership is not pleased that the UK will be leaving the EU. Trade issues that Europe will have with the USA and UK will greatly upset the Europeans. One-day, sadly, the end-time European Beast power will seek and gain revenge (Daniel 8:24-25; 11:39).

While interim years will vary, this will ultimately not turn out well for the UK nor the USA (see also Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves?).

Some items of related interest may include:

Forbes’ Brexit Monster is the Beast of Revelation Various ones have been properly convinced that there is a plan for a European superstate. Forbes’ writer Tom Worstall wrote that the Brexit vote was about the United Kingdom “not joining the monster of the European Union to come.” The Bible tells of a Beast monster that will arise in the end times in Europe. Dr. Thiel cites news reports, as well as the Old and New Testaments, to show that the monster many fear will arise in Europe, despite the vote by the British to exit the European Union. This is a video.
Collapse of the Euro and Dollar? War in 2020? Larry Edelson of Money and Markets described aspects of current economic difficulties and explained why he felt matters would get a lot worse. He said war, like World War III, could break out as early as 2020. What did he call the ‘granddaddy of all cycles”? Will matters go as he said? What does the Bible teach? Dr. Thiel provides biblical insights that secular sources often miss. This is a video.
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2017, 2018, or 2019? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede comenzar la Gran Tribulación en 2016 o 2017? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? You can also see the English language sermon videos: The Great Tribulation from the Mount of Olives and Can the Great Tribulation begin before 2020? A shorter video is: Will the Great Tribulation Start in 2017?
British are the Covenant People What do ‘British’ and ‘Britain’ mean in Hebrew? Are the descendants of the Anglo-Saxons people of the covenant? Does the British royal family connect to the throne of David? What does the Bible teach? What does history show us? Is there any DNA evidence related to British-Israelism? When did Christianity make it to the British Isles? Could Jeremiah have made it to the British Isles? What type of Christians made it to the British Isles? Did the last King of England believe in British Israelism?
Post Brexit Prophecy On June 23, 2016, the voters of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) chose to leave the European Union. Now with this BRitish EXIT (Brexit) vote, what is prophesied to happen to the UK? Will the UK do well or be taken over and made slaves? Dr. Thiel explains from biblical prophecies what is ahead for the UK, Europe, and even the USA, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is a video.
USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses Can you point to scriptures, like Daniel 11:39, that point to the USA in the 21st century? This article does. A related sermon is titled: Do these 7 prophesies point to the end of the USA?
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe? Here is a link to a video titled: Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European?
European Technology and the Beast of Revelation Will the coming European Beast power would use and develop technology that will result in the taking over of the USA and its Anglo-Saxon allies? Is this possible? What does the Bible teach? Here is a related YouTube video: Military Technology and the Beast of Revelation.
Must the Ten Kings of Revelation 17:12 Rule over Ten Currently Existing Nations? Some claim that these passages refer to a gathering of 10 currently existing nations together, while one group teaches that this is referring to 11 nations getting together. Is that what Revelation 17:12-13 refers to? The ramifications of misunderstanding this are enormous. A related sermon is titled Ten Kings of Revelation and the Great Tribulation.
Who is the King of the West? Why is there no Final End-Time King of the West in Bible Prophecy? Is the United States the King of the West? Here is a version in the Spanish language: ¿Quién es el Rey del Occidente? ¿Por qué no hay un Rey del Occidente en la profecía del tiempo del fin?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? In the Spanish language check out ¿Quién es el Rey del Norte? Here is a link to a video titled: The Future King of the North.
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. A video of possible interest may be Will Will USA Spying Help the Beast Power?.
Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
Donald Trump in Prophecy Prophecy, Donald Trump? Are there prophecies that Donald Trump may fulfill? Are there any prophecies that he has already helped fulfill? Could a Donald Trump presidency be apocalyptic? A related video is titled: 13 Ways President-Elect Trump is Apocalyptic.