Supply chain, inflation, stagflation?
(Pixabay)
Supply chain issues remain in the news:
January 14, 2022
Jeff Crouthamel … “Everything is worse,” he says with the calm of a captain fully prepared to go down with his ship. “From coordinating stores and delivering to ships to actually getting product.” …
Some say the global supply chain that moves goods from raw materials to factories to consumers’ homes has been permanently altered.
“It’s bigger than a supply-chain issue. It’s an employment issue. It’s a trucking issue,” Crouthamel said. “Our operating expenses have gone up dramatically just to maintain what we’re doing.”
“You’ve been comfortable with choices and availability and accessibility to everything” before the pandemic, said Thayer, chief executive of Fillogic, a New York company that operates mall-based micro-distribution hubs for retailers. “Now [you’re] being forced to choose, not to the point that you’re not going to get your food, for example, it’s just not going to be the food that you want.” https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-01-14/this-walmarts-of-the-seas-is-challenged-by-covid-supply-chain-crisis
Policies of governments around the world related to COVID, printing money, sanctions, and trade set this situation up.
Inflation has risen (see AP: US consumer prices soared 7% in past year, most since 1982).
And yes, we are in dangerous times and people should take appropriate action.
What about stagflation?
Here is some information about that:
In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. …
he term stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, was first coined during a period of inflation and unemployment in the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom experienced an outbreak of inflation in the 1960s and 1970s. Inflation rose in the 1960s and 1970s, UK policy makers failed to recognise the primary role of monetary policy in controlling inflation. Instead, they attempted to use non-monetary policies and devices to respond to the economic crisis. Policy makers also made “inaccurate estimates of the degree of excess demand in the economy, [which] contributed significantly to the outbreak of inflation in the United Kingdom in the 1960s and 1970s.[3]
Stagflation was not limited to the United Kingdom, however. Economists have shown that stagflation was prevalent among seven major market economies from 1973 to 1982.[6] After inflation rates began to fall in 1982, economists’ focus shifted from the causes of stagflation to the “determinants of productivity growth and the effects of real wages on the demand for labor” … the government can cause stagflation if it creates policies that harm industry while growing the money supply too quickly. (Stagflation. Wikipedia, accessed 01/14/22)
I remember when stagflation was a concerning factor in the early 1980s.
What about now?
Notice the following by Brandon Smith:
January 12, 2022
I don’t think I can overstate the danger that the U.S. economy is in right now as we enter 2022. While most people are caught up in the ongoing drama of Covid-19, a real threat looms over the nation in the form of a stagflationary tidal wave. The mainstream media is attempting to place the blame on “supply chain disruptions,” but this is a misrepresentation of the issue.
The two factors are indeed intertwined, but the reality is that inflation is the cause of supply chain disruptions, not the result of supply chain disruptions. If we look at the underlying stats for price rises in essential products, we can get a clearer picture.
Before I get into my argument, I really want to stress that this is a truly dangerous time and I suggest that people prepare accordingly. …
U.S. food prices have spiked to levels not seen since 2008 at the onset of the credit and derivatives collapse that brought about tens of trillions of dollars in Federal Reserve bailouts.
If we look beyond the 2008 crisis, food prices do not see a similar jump until the 1980s. Rising food prices are often obscured by creative accounting and “shrinkflation” (shrinking packages and rising prices), but if we look at global food prices the average seems to be a 30% jump in the past year.
Rental and home prices have also gone into the stratosphere. Rental costs went up around 18% in 2021, and this is an extension of a trend that has been prevalent for the past decade. Prices have been rising for a while, it’s just that now the avalanche has accelerated. …
When inflation becomes stagflation
Understand that prices are not just rising because of increased demand (demand is starting to fall in many sectors), prices are rising because of increased money supply and dollar devaluation which is not yet being reflected in the Dollar Index. …
Official GDP has flattened despite the fact that U.S. money supply and inflation have rocketed higher. What does this mean? I believe it is a sign of stagflation and a reckoning in 2022. If we examine inflation adjusted GDP numbers from Shadowstats we see that GDP has declined rather aggressively in the past couple of years.
We can also see odd tendencies in oil and gasoline prices. While it’s true that gas prices have been higher in the past, this does not address the full context of the situation. U.S. travel spending has declined 12% since 2019 and airline travel has dropped at least 21% in the past year. Average gasoline usage dropped after 2019 and still has not recovered. Yet, gas prices continue to rise? In other words, travel demand is stagnant but prices are increasing – this is another signal of inflationary pressures and dollar devaluation. Oil is priced in dollars globally, and therefore any inflation in the dollar will be readily visible in oil. This would help explain why pandemic paranoia and reduced travel have not caused gas prices to drop recently.
If the current momentum continues the majority of necessities in the U.S. will not be affordable for most people by next year. We are looking at a fast-moving decline in production along with a swift explosion in prices. In other words, a stagflationary disaster.
This is the Federal Reserve’s fault
I and many other alternative economists have been warning about the inevitable inflation/stagflation crisis for years, but the most important factor to understand is who is responsible this event? Whose mandate is economic stability and minimal inflation?
The mainstream financial media is going to protect the government and the Federal Reserve at all costs during this breakdown. They are going to blame Covid, the lockdowns here and overseas as well as the supply chain bottleneck.
The Fed is the true culprit, though.
While there have been many American Presidents and other politicians that have supported the Fed in its inflationary activities, the central bank itself needs to be held accountable for the downturn that is about to occur. This is a process that started back at the founding of the Fed, but spread like cancer after the crash of 2008 and the introduction of 12+ years of stimulus and bailout measures along with near-zero interest rates.
The inflationary end-game
The pandemic is the perfect cover for the inflationary end game. …
In 2020, the Fed created trillions more but this time the money was injected directly into the U.S. economy through Covid stimulus checks, PPP loans and other measures. In the alternative economic field we call this “helicopter money.” These dollars triggered a massive retail buying spree in 2020, but with more dollars in the economy chasing less goods prices are now spiking much higher.
The big discussion today is whether or not the Fed will taper their asset purchases, reduce their balance sheet and raise interest rates to counter inflation?
The fact is it won’t matter; inflation/stagflation will continue or even accelerate as the Fed tapers. With a taper comes the threat of a flattening yield curve in Treasury bonds as well as the danger of bonds and dollars being dumped by foreign investors and central banks. If the trillions upon trillions of dollars being held overseas come flooding back into the U.S., inflation will continue at its current pace or erupt even higher. …
The pandemic offers a perfect scapegoat for an engineered crash of the U.S. economy which the Fed is trying to facilitate.
Why? Because the more desperate people are financially, the easier they are to buy off with false promises and a loaf of bread. They are easier to control. On top of that, with the U.S. economy reduced to second- or third-world status, it is easier to sell the public on the predetermined solution – total global centralization and far less freedom. https://www.birchgold.com/news/guaranteed-stagflation/
While I do NOT believe that all the blame should be placed on the Federal Reserve, it has embarked on policies and economic chicanery that its members should realize are inflationary.
Considering that one of the two mandates of the Federal Reserve is to keep inflation low, it has taken and supported steps that have the opposite effect in the past decade or so.
This will not end well for the USA or its dollar.
This debasing of the value of currency (called “dross” anciently), which is what the USA has been doing with its official debt and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policies, is condemned in the Bible.
4 Take away the dross from silver (Proverbs 25:4a).
22 Your silver has become dross, Your wine mixed with water. (Isaiah 1:22)
25 I will turn My hand against you, And thoroughly purge away your dross, And take away all your alloy. (Isaiah 1:25)
18 “Son of man, the house of Israel has become dross to Me; they are all bronze, tin, iron, and lead, in the midst of a furnace; they have become dross from silver. 19 Therefore thus says the Lord God: ‘Because you have all become dross, therefore behold, I will gather you into the midst of Jerusalem. 20 As men gather silver, bronze, iron, lead, and tin into the midst of a furnace, to blow fire on it, to melt it; so I will gather you in My anger and in My fury, and I will leave you there and melt you. 21 Yes, I will gather you and blow on you with the fire of My wrath, and you shall be melted in its midst. 22 As silver is melted in the midst of a furnace, so shall you be melted in its midst; then you shall know that I, the Lord, have poured out My fury on you.’” (Ezekiel 22:18-22)
Although the Bible warns against using dross and diluting the money supply, many modern ‘experts’ have a different view. The wrong views on economics will lead to economic problems and ultimately the total crash of the dollar of the USA.
The truth is that the USA is setting itself up for massive inflation, as well as food shortages. Recently, we uploaded the following video:
Food Inflation & the 3rd Horseman of the Apocalypse
The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, UN’s FAO, and others are reporting food price inflation as well as often selected shortages of some food items. Might it get worse? Did Jesus prophesy famines? One analyst stated, “WE haven’t seen anything yet” in regards to rising food prices. Should Christians prepare? What about helping others? Does the ride of the third horseman of the Apocalypse (Revelation 6:5-6) point to a coming time of severe food inflation. Is more food price inflation coming? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues and more in this video.
Here is a link to the video: Food Inflation & the 3rd Horseman of the Apocalypse.
Hyperinflation will hit the USA.
And while we are NOT there yet, its results, including increasing USA debt, will be worse than almost anyone realizes (cf. Habakkuk 2:6-8).
National repentance is needed, but is not expected (Hosea 11:3a, 5b-7)–but you can repent if you respond to God’s calling.
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
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