Contradictory actions and headlines in banking mean what?
European Central Bank, Frankfurt (Eric Chan)
First we heard that large depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank would not be bailed out–but they are being bailed out anyway–apparently to allow those depositors to make payrolls as well as to try to prevent additional runs on USA banks.
Then there is the problem with Credit Suisse:
“This Just Makes No Sense”: European Regulators Rush To Calm AT1 Investors After Credit Suisse Wipeout Shock
March 20, 2023
On Sunday, something … happened with Credit Suisse when, much to the shock of Europe’s $275 billion Additional Tier 1 market, some $17BN in Credit Suisse AT1, aka Contingent Convertible, bonds were wiped out even as equity holders received over $3 billion in consideration from UBS courtesy of Swiss taxpayers who ended up footing billions in contingent liabilities.
Not surprisingly, this morning the entire universe of riskiest bonds of European lenders – those in the AT1 tier – plunged after UBS agreed to buy the bank in a historic, government-enforced deal aimed at containing a crisis of confidence that had started to spread across global financial markets. It was the biggest loss yet for Europe’s AT1 market, which was created after the financial crisis to ensure losses would be borne by investors not taxpayers. …
“This just makes no sense,” said Patrik Kauffmann, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Aquila Asset Management, who holds Credit Suisse CoCos. “Shareholders should get zero” because “it’s crystal clear that AT1s are senior to stocks.” …
Realizing that the chaos and fury among AT1 investors could spark the next leg of market contagion, on Monday morning European regulators rushed to reassure investors that shareholders should face losses before bondholders after the takeover of Credit Suisse Group AG wiped the bank’s Additional Tier 1 debt while preserving over $3 billion in equity value.
Junior creditors should bear losses only after equity holders have been fully wiped out, according to a joint statement from the Single Resolution Board, the European Banking Authority and the ECB Banking Supervision, who apparently were not consulted on Sunday during the whirlwind decisions that preserved some equity value at CS while wiping out its entire AT1 tranche…
All kinds of risky bank debt tumbled on Monday and analysts predicted far-reaching consequences to Europe’s funding market. The market for new AT1 bonds will likely go into deep freeze, traders said. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-makes-no-sense-european-regulators-rush-calm-at1-investors-after-credit-suisse-coco
At least two major banks in Europe are examining scenarios of contagion in the region’s banking sector and are looking to the Federal Reserve and the ECB for stronger signals of support, two senior executives close to the discussions told Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/two-major-banks-europe-worry-about-contagion-look-regulators-reassurance-sources-2023-03-19/
The ECB is the European Central Bank.
Now, see the following, from CNN: and :
Unlike the US, Europe kept its banks on a tight rein post-2008. That was smart
Europe’s lenders are in a stronger position than many of their US peers to weather rising interest rates and the storm unleashed by the demise of SVB and another regional player, Signature Bank, analysts tell CNN.
The rout in bank stocks has been much less severe in Europe than in the United States since the wheels started to come off SVB … https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/15/economy/european-bank-rules-svb/index.html
European banks ‘extremely solid’: French central bank chief
European banks are in “extremely solid” shape and their situation is not similar to that of some US lenders, the French central bank chief said Friday amid fears of a crisis in the sector.
“European banks are not in the same situation as certain American banks for a very simple reason which is that they are not subjected to the same rules,” Francois Villeroy de Galhau, who is also a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council, told BFM Business television. 03/17/23 https://www.zawya.com/en/world/uk-and-europe/european-banks-extremely-solid-french-central-bank-chief-jwt6ed1k
So, those reports make it sound like the European banks are in quite good shape.
However, the Financial Times had a different take:
There are several reasons to worry about the health of Europe’s banks
Credit Suisse was the region’s problem child but other institutions are not immune to the turmoil
Banking is a massive, complicated and delicate confidence trick. Normally it works fine. But as soon as people worry that it could fall apart, it often does, sometimes spectacularly.
However, while Europe’s banks are undoubtedly in a stronger position than in the previous crisis, when several had to be bailed out by their governments, this does not mean they will be immune to the latest turmoil. There are several reasons to worry. First, Credit Suisse also had healthy capital and liquidity ratios — both only slightly below eurozone averages last year — but that did not save it once confidence evaporated. Second, eurozone banks are still not earning enough profit to cover their cost of capital, which is around 9 per cent for many of them, meaning they are effectively destroying shareholder value.
A further concern is the flipside of rising interest rates, which the ECB have increased at an unprecedented pace to tackle soaring inflation. This will hit the value of the banks’ vast holdings of government bonds, mortgages and other debt. https://www.ft.com/content/6af69772-4b8d-4a7c-960c-f233e6ced960
Notice also:
Credit Suisse Rescue Fails to Quell Contagion Fears as Banking Stocks Plummet
March 20, 2023 …
Investor focus has now shifted to the massive blow some Credit Suisse bondholders will take under the UBS acquisition, which has added to anxiety about other key risks including contagion and the fragile state of U.S. regional banks. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2023/03/20/712971.htm
The reality is because of debt, odd instruments like derivatives, government involvement in banks, and political concerns, the inter-connectiveness, and the risk of contagion, the banking system in the West is not one truly solid ground.
Contradictory actions and headlines mean that there are problems and some do not want the public to know the extent of them as that could make the situation much worse.
As I have posted numerous times, the late Pastor General of the old Worldwide Church of God, Herbert W. Armstrong, had a view about banking matters and European unity. Here is something he said in a sermon on July 7, 1984:
And I can see now, the event that is going to trigger the formation of the reunification in Europe; the resurrection of the medieval Holy Roman Empire that we’ve been looking forward to that is prophesied to come…
But I believe that some event is going to happen suddenly just like out a blue sky that is going to shock the whole world and is going to cause the nations in Europe to realize they must unite! … Well now I think I can see what may be the very event that is going to trigger…that is the economic situation in the world…
The whole banking structure in the United States is a network all jointed together. But not only that, one nation has to deal with other nations and imports and exports. And so they have to have a means of transforming money from one nation to another. And so the banking structure is international and interwoven…
Now when the financial structure breaks down, all civilization is going to break down…
So, an economic or banking crisis is what Herbert W. Armstrong concluded would drive Europe to unite.
And, I agree that it will take some type of crisis for Europe to reorganize. Yet, a major reorganization is prophesied to happen and push Europe under totalitarian control:
12 “The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have received no kingdom as yet, but they receive authority for one hour as kings with the beast. 13 These are of one mind, and they will give their power and authority to the beast. (Revelation 17:12-13)
Problems with the ECB, derivatives, the US dollar, and/or Brexit may all be factors that will get Europe to decide to reorganize and support a dictator that the Bible calls the Beast.
That said, while I do not believe we are yet in the banking crisis that Herbert W. Armstrong was speaking of, we can expect a lot of contradictory headlines and actions when a more severe banking crisis will surface.
Some will claim all is fine, like we have heard from some USA and European officials, when the reality is that all is not even fine now, nor will it be when a more severe economic crisis comes–likely within the next four-five years.
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe? Here is a link to a video titled: Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European?
European Technology and the Beast of Revelation Will the coming European Beast power would use and develop technology that will result in the taking over of the USA and its Anglo-Saxon allies? Is this possible? What does the Bible teach? Here is a related YouTube video: Military Technology and the Beast of Revelation.
Germany’s Assyrian Roots Throughout History Are the Germanic peoples descended from Asshur of the Bible? Have there been real Christians in Germanic history? What about the “Holy Roman Empire”? There is also a You-Tube video sermon on this titled Germany’s Biblical Origins.
Germany in Biblical and Greco-Roman Catholic Prophecy Does Assyria in the Bible equate to an end time power inhabiting the area of the old Roman Empire? What does prophecy say Germany will do and what does it say will happen to most of the German people?
Greco-Roman Catholic Prophecies: Do They Mirror, Highlight, or Contradict Biblical Prophecies? People of all faiths may be surprised to see what various Roman and Orthodox Catholic prophets have been predicting as many of their predictions will be looked to in the 21st century.
Might German Baron Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg become the King of the North? Is the former German Defense Minister (who is also the former German Minister for Economics and Technology) one to watch? What do Catholic, Byzantine, and biblical prophecies suggest?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? Here is a link to a video titled: The Future King of the North.
Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European? The Book of Revelation tells of a beast power that will rise up. Some think that this must be Russia or could be Islamic, while others say that this power is European. The Book of Daniel tells of the rise of an end time King of the North that some think must be referring to a Russian leader, while others say that this power is European. How can you be sure? This YouTube video has all the scriptural proofs that you should need to prove that this power must be a European one.
Might the U.S.A. Be Gone by 2028? Could the USA be gone by the end of 2028 or earlier? There is a tradition attributed to the Hebrew prophet Elijah that humanity had 6,000 years to live before being replaced by God’s Kingdom. There are scriptures, writings in the Talmud, early Christian teachings that support this. Also, even certain Hindu writings support it. Here is a link to a related video: Is the USA prophesied to be destroyed by 2028? In Spanish: Seran los Estados Unidos Destruidos en el 2028?
The Great Tribulation: What Happens First? What events have happened? What are some events that are now happening? And what events need to happen for the Great Tribulation to start? Here is a link to a related sermon video: Counting Down to the Great Tribulation. Here is a video in the Spanish language: Contando los eventos y el inicio de la Gran Tribulación.
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2023, 2024, or 2025? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede la Gran Tribulación comenzar en el 2020 o 2021? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? A related video is: Great Tribulation: 2026 or 2027? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation start in 2022 or 2023? Notice also: Can Jesus return in 2023 or 2024? Here is a video in the Spanish language: Es El 2021 el año de La Gran Tribulación o el Grande Reseteo Financiero.
Lost Tribes and Prophecies: What will happen to Australia, the British Isles, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the United States of America? Where did those people come from? Can you totally rely on DNA? What about other peoples? Do you really know what will happen to Europe and the English-speaking peoples? What about Africa, Asia, South America, and the Islands? This free online book provides scriptural, scientific, historical references, and commentary to address those matters. Here are links to related sermons: Lost tribes, the Bible, and DNA; Lost tribes, prophecies, and identifications; 11 Tribes, 144,000, and Multitudes; Israel, Jeremiah, Tea Tephi, and British Royalty; Gentile European Beast; Royal Succession, Samaria, and Prophecies; Asia, Islands, Latin America, Africa, and Armageddon; When Will the End of the Age Come?; Rise of the Prophesied King of the North; Christian Persecution from the Beast; WWIII and the Coming New World Order; and Woes, WWIV, and the Good News of the Kingdom of God.
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