2017 concerns about ‘Black Swans’
Many have concerns about events that may transpire in 2017:
Where Are The ‘Black Swans’ Hiding?
December 21, 2016
“Forget the boring old investment bank research for 2017; find out what the greatest minds of City Index think are the best trading opportunities for the year ahead!” They certainly don’t hold back: Stocks get “slammed” as the end of the bond bull run “starts to bite” and pushes 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to 4 percent; …
Four Black Swans
Economists at Societe Generale illustrate a graphic with four “black swans” that could darken the market landscape next year. The tail risks they see as most likely to alter next year’s outlook stem from political uncertainty (30 percent risk factor), the steep increases in bond yields (25 percent), a hard landing in China (25 percent), and trade wars (15 percent). …
Few dispute that a higher dollar and U.S. yields next year will hurt emerging markets. …
$1 trillion U.S. earnings bonanza
How much offshore earnings can U.S. companies bring back if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his pledge to cut corporate tax?
About $1 trillion, according to estimates by Deutsche Bank. This could give U.S. stocks, already at record highs, another shot in the arm. Citi reckons global equities will rise 10 percent next year, led by developed markets. A 10 percent rise in the dollar and cut in U.S. corporation tax to 20 percent could add 6 percent to global earnings per share. …
China shop bull returns
Chinese stocks will bounce back into a roaring bull market, predicts Morgan Stanley. It reckons the Shanghai Composite index will end next year up 36 percent at 4,400 points, with EPS growth at 6 pct.
This is predicated on there being no significant U.S.-China trade protectionism conflict, although the threat of one and the relatively early stage of the Chinese recovery will keep domestic monetary conditions loose in the first half of 2017. Tougher property sector rules are also starting to divert wealthy individuals’ capital towards stocks, MS says. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/where-are-black-swans-hiding
November 28, 2016
Black Swans that appear out of dark clouds … swoop down unexpectedly … and land in unexpected places …Like the Black Swan that attacked the very heart of our nation on 9/11, with great loss in life and treasure, setting off a chain of events that have continued to ricochet through time …
Black Swans of the First Kind:
In the Financial RealmI’m talking about a big bubble. Not a housing bubble or stock market bubble per se. But another kind of bubble — the money bubble, the big money printing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and, by other major central banks around the world.
Of course they don’t use money printing presses like they used to in the old days. They do it electronically. But it’s still the same process. The Fed and other central banks around the world create money out of thin air. …
Black Swans of the Second Kind:
In the Social Realm …Today, the concentration of wealth is no longer just about the plight of the poor. Nor is it an issue limited to the nation’s middle class. It is also hindering higher-net-worth investors from growing their portfolios — by taking money away from dividends and from interest income. …
The year 2008 is when inequality in America is close to what history tells us is a potential breaking point, and that’s precisely when the Great Recession begins.
But there’s a big difference between the Great Recession of our era and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Back then, the Great Depression reduced the wealth share of the super-rich. This time, it doesn’t. Instead, thanks primarily to the Fed’s money printing, the concentration of wealth surges to new, all-time highs, never before seen in this country.
The end result is the great social and cultural divide of America today. …
Black Swans of the Third Kind:
Political Division and Dysfunction …Most people called that Washington gridlock. But that was just up until 2008, when the political division and dysfunction in this country reached the same level as it did in 1929. Now it’s even more extreme, as you can see in this chart:
What comes out of this polarized environment?
You guessed it: Black Swan politicians (like Trump), surging out of the blue, gathering momentum, changing history and shifting America’s destiny.
So there you have it. The three extreme megatrends of our time, the three set-ups for Black Swans in the United States:
Black Swans of the first kind — in the financial realm.
Black Swans of the second kind — in the social realm.
Black Swans of the third kind — in the political realm.
Each of these is one side of the same single pyramid. Each is replicated, in far greater extremes in other giant economies of the world. https://www.moneyandmarkets.com/real-meaning-trump-83215
2-3 of the 4 ‘black swans’ that economists at Societe Generale listed have some connection to the election of Donald Trump. And the change in bond yields, which is related to decisions by the US Federal Reserve (see The US Federal Reserve meets and raises interest rates), will affect the Donald Trump presidency.
Donald Trump also wants to increase US debt–even as interest rates are rising. 4% interest on U.S. Treasury bonds will put a lot of pressure on the budget of the USA–and higher rates would add more pressure.
The view is correct that artificial money creation is a major bubble that will one day burst. And when it truly does, it will be much worse than most believe.
The social and political divisions in the USA are setting it up for major social unrest.
Donald Trump will have difficulties.
Why the mention of ‘black swans’?
What do black swans have to do with anything? Notice also the following:
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events . . . was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
- The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs (Wikipedia, viewed 12/12/13)
While there are various economic catastrophes including war, famine, and pestilences (Matthew 24:4-8), debt will cause a massive catastrophe in the future.
Donald Trump has indicated that he will increase the debt of the USA and may sometime in the future partially default (he called it ‘renegotiating’). Even if there is the appearance of prosperity for a time, do not expect that to end well.
The reality is that a major ‘black swan’ event will be when foreign creditors rise up against the USA. This is biblically-prophesied:
3 For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry…5 Indeed, because he transgresses by wine, He is a proud man… 6 “Will not all these take up a proverb against him, And a taunting riddle against him, and say, ‘Woe to him who increases What is not his–how long? And to him who loads himself with many pledges’? 7 Will not your creditors rise up suddenly? Will they not awaken who oppress you? And you will become their booty. 8 Because you have plundered many nations, All the remnant of the people shall plunder you. Because of men’s blood And the violence of the land and the city, And of all who dwell in it. (Habakkuk 2:3,5,6-8).
13 “Behold, therefore, I beat My fists at the dishonest profit which you have made, and at the bloodshed which has been in your midst. 14 Can your heart endure, or can your hands remain strong, in the days when I shall deal with you? I, the Lord, have spoken, and will do it. 15 I will scatter you among the nations, disperse you throughout the countries, and remove your filthiness completely from you. (Ezekiel 22:13-15)
Borrowing money that will not be paid back is a “dishonest profit” which the American and British peoples have been living on for the past several years (as is the “quantitative easing” programs for the US Federal Reserve; see also the YouTube video The Debt Crisis Will Be Worse Than Most Imagine). The Anglo-power will be scattered for this and their filthiness (see also Will the Anglo-Nations be Divided?). Some will consider these ‘black swan’ events, but they were predicted thousands of years ago.
While the election of Donald Trump is expected to have several economic positives for the USA, the world will react.
Prophesied events are lining up.
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
Twelve ‘grey swan’ events to watch for in 2017? The Japanese financial firm Nomura put out a list of ‘ten grey swans’ events to look out for in 2017. Indirectly based upon ‘black swan’ theory, these are events that Nomura believes could greatly impact financial markets in 2017–some of which are related to the election of Donald Trump. Dr. Thiel expounds on each of these ten and adds two additional ones. What is a ‘grey swan’ and how may events in 2017 impact the future? What were two events in 2016 that look to have significant impact in 2017? Dr. Thiel brings out biblical prophecies that Nomura did not refer to so that you can better understand what will happen, as well as when certain events will not happen. This is a video.
Physical Preparation Scriptures for Christians. We all know the Bible prophecies famines. Should we do something? Here is a version in the Spanish language Escrituras sobre Preparación física para los Cristianos.
The Plain Truth About Gold in Prophecy. How Should a Christian View Gold? What do economists and the Bible teach about gold? Gold and silver may drop in value. Inflation/deflation? What do Christians need to know about gold?
The Seven Laws of Success Herbert W. Armstrong had seven laws that he felt could help people become successful.
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. Information is also in the YouTube sermons titled Where are the Ten Lost Tribes? Why does it matter? and British are the Covenant People. A short YouTube of prophetic interest may be Barack Obama and the State of the Apocalypse.
Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
Should a Christian Vote? This article gives some of the Biblical rationale on this subject. Would Jesus vote for president/prime minister? Is voting in the Bible? This is a subject Christians need to understand. A video of related interest is available titled: Should Christians Vote? Another video is 10 Reasons Not to Vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Christian Repentance Do you know what repentance is? Is it really necessary for salvation? A related sermon is Confess to God and truly repent.
Is the USA now an Evil Empire? Dr. Thiel gives many reasons to consider. A related video is also available: Is the USA an Evil Empire?
USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses Can you point to scriptures, like Daniel 11:39, that point to the USA in the 21st century? This article does. A related sermon is titled: Do these 7 prophesies point to the end of the USA?
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe? Here is a link to a video titled: Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European?
European Technology and the Beast of Revelation Will the coming European Beast power would use and develop technology that will result in the taking over of the USA and its Anglo-Saxon allies? Is this possible? What does the Bible teach? Here is a related YouTube video: Military Technology and the Beast of Revelation.
Must the Ten Kings of Revelation 17:12 Rule over Ten Currently Existing Nations? Some claim that these passages refer to a gathering of 10 currently existing nations together, while one group teaches that this is referring to 11 nations getting together. Is that what Revelation 17:12-13 refers to? The ramifications of misunderstanding this are enormous. A related sermon is titled Ten Kings of Revelation and the Great Tribulation.
Can those in the USA/UK see the Handwriting on the Wall? Is everything fine in the USA/UK or is it like the days of Noah? Can we learn from the handwriting that appeared on a wall thousands of years ago? Here is a link to a related YouTube video Can you see the ‘Handwriting on the Wall’?
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse What do each of the four horseman of the Apocalypse represent? Have they began their ride? Did Jesus discuss the any of this? Might their rides coincide with the “beginning of sorrows? Do they start their ride prior to the Great Tribulation? Did Nostradamus or any other ‘private prophets’ write predictions that may mislead people so that they may not understand the truth of one or more of the four horseman? There is also a related YouTube video titled The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
Who is the King of the West? Why is there no Final End-Time King of the West in Bible Prophecy? Is the United States the King of the West? Here is a version in the Spanish language: ¿Quién es el Rey del Occidente? ¿Por qué no hay un Rey del Occidente en la profecía del tiempo del fin?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? In the Spanish language check out ¿Quién es el Rey del Norte? Here is a link to a video titled: The Future King of the North.
Does God Have a 6,000 Year Plan? What Year Does the 6,000 Years End? Was a 6000 year time allowed for humans to rule followed by a literal thousand year reign of Christ on Earth taught by the early Christians? Does God have 7,000 year plan? What year may the six thousand years of human rule end? When will Jesus return? 2023 or 20xx? There is also a video titled The 6000 Year Plan: Is the end of humanity’s reign almost up? Here is a link to the article in Spanish: ¿Tiene Dios un plan de 6,000 años?
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2017, 2018, or 2019? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede comenzar la Gran Tribulación en 2016 o 2017? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? You can also see the English language sermon videos: The Great Tribulation from the Mount of Olives and Can the Great Tribulation begin before 2020? A shorter video is: Will the Great Tribulation Start in 2017?
World War III: Steps in Progress Are there surprising actions going on now that are leading to WWIII? Might a nuclear attack be expected? Does the Bible promise protection to all or only some Christians? How can you be part of those that will be protected? A related video would be Is World War III About to Begin? Can You Escape?
Donald Trump in Prophecy Prophecy, Donald Trump? Are there prophecies that Donald Trump may fulfill? Are there any prophecies that he has already helped fulfill? Could a Donald Trump presidency be apocalyptic? A related video is titled: 13 Ways President-Elect Trump is Apocalyptic.
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