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2023: Stagflation After Failed Stimulus?


COGwriter

ZeroHedge posted the following:

2023. Stagflation After Failed Stimulus.

January 1, 2023

After more than $20 trillion in stimulus plans since 2020, the economy is going into stagnation with elevated inflation. Global governments announced more than $12 trillion in stimulus measures in 2020 alone, and central banks bloated their balance sheet by $8 trillion. …

If Keynesian multipliers existed, most developed economies would be growing strongly even discounting the Ukraine invasion impact, considering the unprecedented amount of stimulus plans approved.

Now we face a 2023 with even more disappointing estimates. According to Bloomberg Economics, global growth will decline from a poor 3.2% in 2022 to a worrying 2.4% in 2023, significantly below the pre-covid-19 trend but with higher global debt. Total global debt rose by $3.3 trillion in Q1 2022 to a new record of over $305 trillion-mostly due to China and the U.S., according to the IIF.

However, consensus estimates show an even worse outlook. Global growth should stall at +1.8%, with the euro area at zero growth and the United States at just 0.3%, with inflation reaching 6% globally, 6.1% in the euro area, and 4.1% in the United States.

Only a handful of countries are expected to reduce debt in 2023, with most nations continuing to finance bloated government spending with elevated deficits and tax hikes. A world where governments are constantly eroding the purchasing power of currencies and slashing disposable income of taxpayers with rising taxes is likely to show weaker growth trends and worsening imbalances.

The narrative all over the world is to try and convince us that past-peak but elevated inflation is “falling prices” and that everything is good when debt increases, growth stalls and the purchasing power of salaries and savings is wiped out slowly.

There is no success in stagflation. It is a process of impoverishment that hurts the middle classes immensely while the excessive government spending is never curbed.

2023 is expected to be the year of stagflation. Of course, most strategists are betting on inflation falling rapidly in the second part of the year, but that seems inconsistent with their estimates of deficit spending and growth. …

The uncomfortable reality is that nations have created a long-lasting decline by pushing the limits on demand-side policies and government intervention. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2023-you-wanted-endless-stimulus-you-got-stagflation

The World Economic Forum (WEF) posted the following:

The risk of stagflation

“The central banks are still being very clear about their mandate, they are absolutely fixated on bringing inflation back towards their targets, and that is taking priority over the growth dynamics … It is acting as a backstop, and it’s also why having these independent central banks is so important.”

— Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist and Head of Macroeconomics, Zurich Insurance

Adrian Mock: Thanks, Santi. Got some questions here from some journalists. Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson from the Financial Times has a couple of questions to put to the panel. Firstly, where do you see the most pronounced risks for stagflation? And secondly, is it the panel’s view that we’re entering a new economic regime in which inflation remains more elevated than in the past, and where we’re subject to more volatile supply chain issues on a sustained basis? So a couple of very big questions there from Andrew at the FT. Guy, do you want to jump in first on stagflation?

Stagflation

Guy Miller: Well, I guess in terms of the region most vulnerable — I would say it is the Eurozone. It is a region that has typically lower trend growth. And as a result of that, it’s always inevitable that that growth dynamic is going to be at risk. And what we’re seeing here is a combination of that slower trend growth, combined of course with this exogenous shock in terms of the energy component.

So I think it’s fairly clear that certainly for probably the coming year that this region is going to fit that definition of stagflation. …

I think the goods sector is going to be running a little bit higher than we’ve seen in the past for various structural reasons around geopolitics and trade. But I think it is going to be more marginal. It’s still going to be around these targets, even if they are slightly more on the higher side rather than the lower side. So, yes, but to a lesser extent, I think to answer the question.

Adrian Monck: And Rima, do you share that view from Guy there on some of those risks?

Rima Bhatia: Yes. I think well, if we talk about inflation first. I think ultimately the central banks are going to have to tolerate a higher level of inflation. I mean, how far can they raise rates before bringing inflation down to that 2%? I mean, I think that’s no longer realistic in today’s world.  09/30/22 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/chief-economists-outlook-inflation-recession-sept-2022/

So, the WEF is expecting stagflation as well as higher than 2% inflation rates. Many in the USA share that view.

Now notice the following:

What is Stagflation?

Stagflation is an economic event in which the inflation rate is high, economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. Such an unfavorable combination is feared and can be a dilemma for governments since most actions designed to lower inflation may raise unemployment levels, and policies designed to decrease unemployment may worsen inflation. accessed 03/02/22 https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/stagflation/

Stagflation is inflation without growth.

But that is not the only problem.

To deal with inflation, the US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates. This is leading to increased debt for the USA. One day this will cause a destructive vicious circle that the US economy will not get out of.

I warned last year about the prospects of stagflation (see Supply chain, inflation, stagflation?).

We now look set for at least some of that to happen.

As far as inflation itself goes, it the USA inflation rate hit a four-decade high in 2022. And the inflation rate was even higher in some other Western nations than the USA.

Rising inflation is consistent with something in my book Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction:

The U.S.A. dollar will ultimately crash and be worthless. That “pride” of American power will be broken (cf. Leviticus 26:19). …

Inflation will eventually hit the U.S.A. extremely hard.

And, one day inflation will be much worse it is than now.

Related to inflation, the Continuing Church of God (CCOG) put together the following video:

15:26

Inflation: When Money Fails

Inflation has been higher in 2022 than it has been for decades in the USA, Europe, and many other lands. What are some of the disruptions that inflation can cause? What about hyperinflation affecting places like Venezuela? Did the Book of Haggai predict inflation? Is food price inflation associated with the ride of the third horseman of the Apocalypse? Does sin and government mismanagement cause inflation? Are there physical things one can do about inflation? What about storing food or buying gold? Will gold outlast the USA dollar? Why might some throw their gold in the street as Ezekiel prophesied? What should God’s people do about inflation? What did Jesus teach about food worries? What about seeking the Kingdom of God? Steve Dupuie and Dr. Thiel cover these matters.

Here is a link to our video: Inflation: When Money Fails.

If governments would not have printed up so much debt money for political and other reasons, inflation would not be as much of an issue. But because many have, stagflation looks much more likely.

Slowing down the economy to deal with inflation by raising interest rates causes other problems.

Some are concerned that raising interest rates, which is what US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been doing, may push world economies into stagflation or worse.

This will harm many in the USA and many around the world.

Jesus warned of famines (Matthew 24:4-8) as part of the beginning of sorrows. The Book of Revelation warned about food shortages and food price inflation associated with the ride of the third horseman of the Apocalypse (Revelation 6:5-6).

Looking to increase food and energy production would seem to be better solutions than raising interest rates, but that does not seem to be a high priority for the US Federal Reserve, the Biden-Harris Administration, most of the politicians in Washington, D.C., nor most associated with groups like the World Economic Forum.

Some items of possibly related interest may include the following:

Might the U.S.A. Be Gone by 2028? Could the USA be gone by the end of 2028 or earlier? There is a tradition attributed to the Hebrew prophet Elijah that humanity had 6,000 years to live before being replaced by God’s Kingdom. There are scriptures, writings in the Talmud, early Christian teachings that support this. Also, even certain Hindu writings support it. Here is a link to a related video: Is the USA prophesied to be destroyed by 2028? In Spanish: Seran los Estados Unidos Destruidos en el 2028?
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse What do each of the four horseman of the Apocalypse represent? Have they began their ride? Did Jesus discuss the any of this? Might their rides coincide with the “beginning of sorrows? Do they start their ride prior to the Great Tribulation? Did Nostradamus or any other ‘private prophets’ write predictions that may mislead people so that they may not understand the truth of one or more of the four horseman? There is also a related YouTube video titled Sorrows and the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
The End of US Dollar Dominance Is the USA losing its economic status? What about the petro-gold-yuan? A related video is also available: US Dollar being challenged by Gold-Petro-Yuan.
Who is the King of the West? Why is there no Final End-Time King of the West in Bible Prophecy? Is the United States the King of the West? Here is a version in the Spanish language: ¿Quién es el Rey del Occidente? ¿Por qué no hay un Rey del Occidente en la profecía del tiempo del fin? A related sermon is also available: The Bible, the USA, and the King of the West.
USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses Can you point to scriptures, like Daniel 11:39, that point to the USA in the 21st century? This article does. Two related sermon are available: Identifying the USA and its Destruction in Prophecy and Do these 7 prophesies point to the end of the USA?
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2023, 2024, or 2025? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede la Gran Tribulación comenzar en el 2020 o 2021? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? A related video is: Great Tribulation: 2026 or 2027? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation start in 2022 or 2023? Notice also: Can Jesus return in 2023 or 2024? Here is a video in the Spanish language: Es El 2021 el año  de La Gran Tribulación o el Grande Reseteo Financiero.
Does God Have a 6,000 Year Plan? What Year Does the 6,000 Years End? Was a 6000 year time allowed for humans to rule followed by a literal thousand year reign of Christ on Earth taught by the early Christians? Does God have 7,000 year plan? What year may the six thousand years of human rule end? When will Jesus return? 2031 or 20xx? There is also a video titled 6000 Years: When will God’s Kingdom Come? Here is a link to the article in Spanish: ¿Tiene Dios un plan de 6,000 años?
The Plain Truth About Gold in Prophecy. How Should a Christian View Gold? What do economists and the Bible teach about gold? Gold and silver may drop in value. Inflation/deflation? What do Christians need to know about gold?
Is a Great Reset Coming? Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum has proposed a societal change that has been basically endorsed by the Vatican and many world leaders. Does the Bible prophesy a major reset? Here is a link to a related video: Will there be a “Great Reset”?
The Gospel of the Kingdom of God This free online pdf booklet has answers many questions people have about the Gospel of the Kingdom of God and explains why it is the solution to the issues the world is facing. Here are links to four related sermons: The Fantastic Gospel of the Kingdom of God!, The World’s False Gospel, The Gospel of the Kingdom: From the New and Old Testaments, and The Kingdom of God is the Solution.
Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction Can the USA survive two full presidential terms? In what ways are Joe Biden and Kamala Harris apocalyptic? This book has hundreds of prophecies and scriptures to provide details. A Kindle version is also available and you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to your free Kindle reader app (or if you already have one or a Kindle), you can go to: Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction (Kindle) to get the book in seconds.

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 1st, 2023 at 4:00 pm and is filed under Prophecy.



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