Black Swans, China, and the USA

Black Swan (Calvin Teo)

Scoop, a New Zealand based organization, had the following:

Dec 12, 2013

One of the more interesting recent economic metaphors is that of the ‘black swan’. It is used to mean an unknowable event; or at least an event deemed too unlikely to be predictable by any academic model. Like rain from a blue sky…

Nevertheless this seems an unfortunate metaphor given that the black swan is by no means an unknowable bird…It is supposed by many economists (for example Tony Cleaver in Understanding the World Economy 2013 edition) that the 2008 Global Financial Crisis was a “black swan event”. Economists’ defence in not predicting that crisis is that it was not predictable. That’s bollocks!…

The red elephant is inequality and debt. The green elephant is the wanton and unsustainable exploitation of the natural environment…The financial world is not particularly perturbed by debts that are never likely to be repaid. A debt to one party (debtor) is an asset to another party (creditor).

Creditors only worry when their assets are devalued, and that happens when a sufficient number of people know that the default risk surpasses a threshold…

What other black swans are lurking on our societal lagoons?…

Maybe political and economic tension between Japan and China may escalate into something very big…

And what about repeats of the global financial crisis? A brief study of financial history prior to the 1940s suggests that crises like that of 2008 will recur, probably with increased intensity, about every 10 years. Indeed, so long as miserliness and inequality – the root causes of these debt crises – continue unabated, repeated financial crises are sure bets to any competent gambler. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1312/S00111/black-swans-and-the-global-financial-crisis.htm

The above reporter is correct that some so-called ‘black-swan’ events are knowable. But many act otherwise. Notice also the following:

The Next Black Swan: A Dollar Crisis

Does anyone seriously think that we can print trillions of dollars out of thin air for five years and not eventually have something bad happen? The next the black swan is already staring us in the face. It’s going to be a collapse in the purchasing power of the US dollar. http://etfdailynews.com/2013/12/03/the-next-black-swan-a-dollar-crisis/

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology

The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)

The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs

Unlike the earlier philosophical “black swan problem,” the “black swan theory” refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. (Wikipedia, viewed 12/12/13)

While some believe that various economic catastrophes are essentially random events, some others are watching what is happening and have a different view.

The reality is that a major ‘black swan’ event will be when foreign creditors rise up against the USA. Yet, not only is that knowable based upon the accumulation of USA debt, it is biblically-prophesied:

3 For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry…5 Indeed, because he transgresses by wine, He is a proud man… 6 “Will not all these take up a proverb against him, And a taunting riddle against him, and say, ‘Woe to him who increases What is not his–how long? And to him who loads himself with many pledges’? 7 Will not your creditors rise up suddenly? Will they not awaken who oppress you? And you will become their booty. 8 Because you have plundered many nations, All the remnant of the people shall plunder you. Because of men’s blood And the violence of the land and the city, And of all who dwell in it. (Habakkuk 2:3,5,6-8).

13 “Behold, therefore, I beat My fists at the dishonest profit which you have made, and at the bloodshed which has been in your midst. 14 Can your heart endure, or can your hands remain strong, in the days when I shall deal with you? I, the Lord, have spoken, and will do it. 15 I will scatter you among the nations, disperse you throughout the countries, and remove your filthiness completely from you. (Ezekiel 22:13-15)

Borrowing money that will not be paid back is a “dishonest profit” which the American and British peoples have been living on for the past several years (as is the “quantitative easing” programs for the US Federal Reserve; see also Doubling QE3 is not good and the YouTube video The Debt Crisis Will Be Worse Than Most Imagine). The Anglo-power will be scattered for this and their filthiness (see also Will the Anglo-Nations be Divided?). Some will consider these ‘black swan’ events, but they were predicted thousands of years ago.

Currently, there are several indications that China is getting concerned about the USA and its debt. And it is now taking steps so that when events such as the devaluing of the US dollar occur, it will not be hurt as much as it otherwise would. Plus it wants to take advantage of that.

Notice the following news reports:

China Announces That It Is Going To Stop Stockpiling U.S. Dollars

The central bank of China has decided that it is “no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves”. During the third quarter of 2013, China’s foreign-exchange reserves were valued at approximately $3.66 trillion. And of course the biggest chunk of that was made up of U.S. dollars China has been accumulating dollars and working hard to keep the value of the dollar up and the value of the yuan down.

One of the goals has been to make Chinese products less expensive in the international marketplace. But now China has announced that the time has come for it to stop stockpiling U.S. dollars. And if that does indeed turn out to be the case, than many U.S. analysts are suggesting that China could also soon stop buying any more U.S. debt. Needless to say, all of this would be very bad for the United States.

For years, China has been systematically propping up the value of the U.S. dollar and keeping the value of the yuan artificially low. This has resulted in a massive flood of super cheap products from across the Pacific that U.S. consumers have been eagerly gobbling up. http://wallstreetsectorselector.com/2013/11/china-announces-going-stop-stockpiling-u-s-dollars/

US-China Air Standoff Could Roil US Treasury Market

Forbes

“As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world,” wrote Liu Chang in Xinhua, China’s official news outlet.

While the prospect of a financial stand-off between the two countries is very unlikely — for all sorts of reasons— one cannot help but ask what would happen to the US economy should China and other major buyers of US securities (e.g., Japan) stop suddenly doing so? Which sectors would be hit the hardest? http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2013/12/01/us-china-air-standoff-could-roil-us-treasury-market/

China could match U.S. gold reserves inside 10 years – or earlier

Bloomberg notes the recent call in an editorial on state-run Chinese news agency, Xinhua, calling for a ‘de-Americanized world’. Amidst some scathing comment on what the writer referred to as a hypocritical nation, the following paragraph is perhaps considered as particularly pertinent in relation to China’s believed interest in building its gold holdings: “What may also be included as a key part of an effective reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States.”

Why should this be pertinent to China’s gold holdings? It is felt by the Chinese, and many others, that a strong national gold holding, perhaps even matching or exceeding that of the U.S.’s official 8,133.5 tonnes, would put the yuan in a particularly strong position to be at least a part of any new global reserve currency which may be set up, even if not replacing the dollar altogether. Indeed the Bloomberg research suggests that at the current accumulation rate it would take China only ten years to bring its gold holdings up to the U.S. level – indeed some observers think this could be done even more rapidly and that it may be over half way there already. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=217962&sn=Detail

So while most in the USA do not realize that the USA is heading for a ‘black swan’ event, the Chinese seem to understand that and are preparing for it.

Another potential ‘black swan’ event will be crop losses from its high dependance on genetically-engineered grains. China is also objecting to the contamination of corn imports from the USA due to this problem:

BEIJING — China has blocked the entry of another U.S. corn cargo, and three more may be turned away, after tests found a strain of unapproved genetically-modified [GMO] corn…

Since the middle of November, quarantine authorities in China, the world’s second largest corn consumer, already have turned away about 180,000 tons of the grain.

“It is really causing big trouble and it seems to be related to bilateral trade conflicts,” said a corn trader with a domestic trading house…

Traders said another three cargoes already had tested positive for MIR 162, a GMO strain developed for insect resistance, and were expected to be turned away from ports in Guangdong and Fujian. http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-china-rejects-more-us-corn-amid-rising-trade-conflict/1808273.html

China is concerned about many things involving the USA and wants to curb the influence of the USA, reduce its risks for ‘black swan’ events that will affect the USA, and position itself to take advantage of obvious USA weaknesses.

Yet, while China does have a certain amount of economic and military power, it will not be the primary power that will surpass and takeover the USA (see Is China THE Threat to the United States of America?). The Bible is clear that the nation with the ‘strongest fortresses’ will be taken over by a European military (Daniel 11:39) and economic power (cf. Revelation 13,18), biblically referred to as the King of the North (Daniel 11:40). And that is not China.

USA allies such as Canada and the United Kingdom will end up in a similar situation to the USA as well.

Yet, some of the USA’s Anglo-Saxon allies like Australia and New Zealand may end up being dominated by China, Japan, and/or other Asians.

China sees that the USA is in decline. Various so-called ‘black swan’ events are coming. And even a report from New Zealand recognizes that these events should be obvious to those who are watching what is happening on the world scene.

Remember that Jesus and the Apostle Paul taught:

37 And what I say to you, I say to all: Watch!” (Mark 13:37)

3 For when they say, “Peace and safety!” then sudden destruction comes upon them, as labor pains upon a pregnant woman. And they shall not escape. 4 But you, brethren, are not in darkness, so that this Day should overtake you as a thief. 5 You are all sons of light and sons of the day. We are not of the night nor of darkness. 6 Therefore let us not sleep, as others do, but let us watch and be sober. (1 Thessalonians 5:3-6)

Those that heed the admonitions of Jesus and the Apostle Paul and properly understand end-time prophecy will not be surprised by the ‘black swan’ events that will affect the USA and Anglo-Saxon nations or the rest of the world.

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 1: Genesis and Chinese Characters This article provides information showing that the Chinese peoples must have known about various accounts in the Book of Genesis up until their dispersion after the Tower of Babel.
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 2: The Sabbath and Some of God’s Witness in China When did Christianity first come to China? And is there early evidence that they observed the seventh day sabbath?
Asia in Prophecy What is Ahead for Asia? Who are the “Kings of the East”? What will happen to nearly all the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and others of Asia? China in prophecy, where? Who has the 200,000,000 man army related to Armageddon? A YouTube video of interest may be Is China THE Threat to the United States of America?
Physical Preparation Scriptures for Christians. We all know the Bible prophecies famines. Should we do something? Here is a version in the Spanish language Escrituras sobre Preparación física para los Cristianos.
The Plain Truth About Gold in Prophecy. How Should a Christian View Gold? What do economists and the Bible teach about gold? Gold and silver may drop in value. Inflation/deflation? What do Christians need to know about gold?
The Seven Laws of Success Herbert W. Armstrong had seven laws that he felt could help people become successful.
Christian Success Does the Bible teach that Christians are to be successful? Are there at least seven laws of success that Christians should follow? How does the Bible teach we are to become successfully spiritually? Does the Bible really teach that Christians should be successful physically? This video answers these questions and more from the Bible. An outline of some of the scriptures used is here: Christian Success Outline.
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? Here is a link to a video titled: The Future King of the North.
Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
WTO/TTIP and the Babylonian Beast Will international trade agreements like WTO/TTIP/CETA lead to the fulfillment of end time prophecies concerning the Babylonian Beast power that the Book of Revelation warns against? What does the Bible teach?
Can those in the USA/UK see the Handwriting on the Wall? Is everything fine in the USA/UK or is it like the days of Noah? Can we learn from the handwriting that appeared on a wall thousands of years ago? Here is a link to a related YouTube video Can you see the ‘Handwriting on the Wall’?
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? A video of possible interest may be Will Will USA Spying Help the Beast Power?
GMOs and Bible Prophecy What are GMOs? Since they were not in the food supply until 1994, how could they possibly relate to Bible prophecy? Do GMOs put the USA and others at risk? Here is a related YouTube video GMO Risks and the Bible.
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2014, 2015, or 2016? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede comenzar la Gran Tribulación en 2013 o 2014? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? You can also see the English language video The Great Tribulation Will Not Begin Before 2017.
Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Edition for Second Obama Term This is a 160 page book for people truly interested in prophecies related to Barack Obama and the United States, including learning about many that have already been fulfilled (which the book documents in detail) and those that will be fulfilled in the future. It also has a chapter about a Republican choice. This book is available to order at www.barackobamaprophecy.com. The physical book can also be purchased at Amazon from the following link: Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States: Is Barack Obama Fulfilling Biblical, Islamic Catholic, Kenyan, and other America-Related Prophecies? What About Republican Leaders? Second Edition for Second Obama Term.
Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Term-Amazon Kindle edition. This electronic version is available for only US$2.99. And you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to for your free Kindle reader and then go to Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Term-Amazon Kindle edition.