Bold Financial Predictions Not To Ignore?
(Photo from Pixabay)
ZeroHedge posted the following by Marco Butler:
2025 Crystal Ball: 10 Bold Predictions Not To Ignore
It is that time of the year when all investors look back at the past 12 months and try to anticipate what is in store for the next 12. …
Even though forecasting is a difficult task, and portfolio management is not solely about forecasting but also about risk management and adapting to the environment to deliver the appropriate risk adjusted return. In this context, there are ten bold predictions investors should not ignore as they look ahead to the next 12 months.
- The FED will resume rate hikes before December 31, 2025.
In 2024, the FOMC delivered irrelevant rate cuts that culminated in a predictably hawkish tone at its final meeting of the year, as the FED began to factor in the impact of tariffs on the U.S. business cycle. Investors should remember that this is not the first time the FED has embarked on an interest rate cut cycle while the U.S. economy was in an inflationary boom. …
- The US energy sector will outperform the Magnificent 7.
Savvy investors also know that when the US economy is in an inflationary boom, as it has been since October 2023, energy-consuming sectors—proxied by the IT sector and more narrowly by the “Magnificent 7″—outperform energy-producing sectors, which can be proxied by the energy sector. However, as tariffs are implemented and the so-called ‘Trump rally’ morphs into ‘Trump Stagflation,’ and as the US economy transitions from an inflationary boom to an inflationary bust, energy-producing sectors will outperform energy-consuming sectors. …
- The US 30-Year Yield rise above 6.0%.
With the US government facing more than $10.0 trillion in debt to refinance in 2025 alone, and with tariffs and tighter immigration policies set to be implemented once the 47th US president is eventually inaugurated on January 20th, the FED may be tempted, or even forced, at some point to implement yield curve control to preserve the health of the US banking system and maintain a semblance of importance and credibility.
- Physical gold will outperform Bitcoin.
Investors who have studied the business cycle throughout history understand that there is only one asset class that has preserved wealth during inflationary times, particularly during inflationary busts, and that provides a hedge against government actions and the rising risks of wars: PHYSICAL GOLD. While Wall Street and even politicians, who will do whatever it takes to be elected, have sold the idea to uneducated YOLO investors that Bitcoin is an antifragile asset, the reality is that Bitcoin, like other cryptocurrencies, is the biggest scam ever created by authoritarian governments. …
- The Eurozone will implement capital controls.
Outside of Japan, which is expected to experience the first significant crisis among the wrongly called developed markets, Europe will not only be the region most impacted by the implementation of tariffs by the 47th U.S. president but will also have to deal with rising political instability. Recent events in France and Germany have shown that lame-duck governments are impotent in implementing the necessary reforms to avoid an inevitable sovereign debt crisis. In this context, investors should not only avoid the European banking sector but also be aware of the rising risk in the Eurozone of implementing capital controls to prevent a complete meltdown of its financial sector. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2025-01-04/2025-crystal-ball-10-bold-predictions-not-ignore
While Marco Butler listed 10, I only plan to comment on the five shown here (his entire article with all ten is at the link above).
1. The US Federal Reserve reduced interest rates in 2024 in what looks to have been an effort to assist the economy of the Biden-Harris Administration. But many felt that was not justified because of inflationary issues. Raising rates would also have international consequences, including impacting Europe.
3. If Donald Trump can get several of his energy policies in place, yes, the US energy sector will do well financially.
4. At some point in time, US Treasuries will have to pay a much higher rate than they currently do. We will see if the 30 year rate will exceed 6% by the end of 2025. But it could.
7. In many ways, Bitcoin is a scam. But, so too now, is the US dollar. Gold, which has other issues, is in a different category. But there is no assurance that gold will outperform Bitcoin in 2025–if we see the peace deal of Daniel 9:27, or certain other developments, gold may drop in 2025.
Bitcoin, itself, is backed by nothing and can also be destroyed. Some suspect that massively fast computer chips, like Google’s Willow, may be a threat to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin according to this report from Forbes:
Small Step Or Giant Leap? Assessing Google’s Quantum Threat To BTC
December 19, 2024
Any major developments regarding quantum computing tend to cause a collective intake of breath among the crypto community. Google’s latest announcement launching its quantum processor, dubbed Willow, is no different. Not only does Willow feature double the number of qubits (or quantum bits, the quantum equivalent of processing capacity in traditional computers), but Google has also managed to reduce the instability usually caused by adding more qubits.
Therefore, Willow offers increased computational capacity relative to the number of additional qubits compared to other quantum machines. To put this into context, Willow takes around five minutes to execute a task that would take a standard supercomputer a trillion trillion years to process.
This significant leap forward in processing power leads to questions about Bitcoin’s legendary security, unbroken for 15 years since the genesis block. Bitcoin relies on cryptography, including the SHA-256 algorithm, which is secure enough to withstand any brute-force attack by traditional computers. But, if we put the same task in front of increasingly powerful quantum machines, a successful attack will begin to approach the point of feasibility. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nimrodlehavi/2024/12/19/small-step-or-giant-leap-assessing-googles-quantum-threat-to-btc/
I have long warned that Bitcoin had risks, and this looks to be another one.
A couple of years back, ZeroHedge posted the following:
The Bitcoin is ‘as-good-as-gold’ myth is over
November 17, 2022
When you invest in gold or buy silver coins … you are choosing to invest in an asset that has no counterparty risk.
Sadly those who have been holding their bitcoin on the crypto exchange FTX, have not experienced the same level of reassurance and service from the exchange’s management.
This time last year, cryptocurrency enthusiasts were still touting “Crypto as the new gold”– crypto touted as having the same ‘safe’ attributes as gold.
The main attribute is that it is a currency that government doesn’t control. Also, it is without counterparty risk. The latest debacle has once more proved this is not always the case for cryptocurrencies.
The news that the crypto exchange FTX was filing for bankruptcy on November 5 sent Bitcoin plunging down a further 25%.
This is on top of the more than 60% Bitcoin has already declined since its November 2021 peak. …
The FTX collapse has brought to light that the CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, had authorized billions of dollars worth of customer assets to be lent to its affiliated trading firm Alameda Research to fund risky bets.
According to news reports Alameda Research owes FTX upwards of US$10 billion. This is more than half of its US$16 billion in customer assets!
The bankruptcy case is likely to take years to unravel. There could be more than one million creditors, and more than 100 other related corporate entities involved.
Everyone who thought they owned Bitcoin held by FTX became an unsecured bankruptcy creditor. These are the ones who must now rely upon some Court to confirm just how much, or any Bitcoin they will receive. …
Only time will tell if the timing of the test (on the heels of the FTX collapse) is simply ‘bad timing’ or an omen of a system building in even more risk. Investing in physical gold and silver are still the tried-and-true alternative! https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-11-17/bitcoin-good-gold-myth-over
Yes, gold and silver have been safer than being with FTX.
Cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, have never been backed by anything other than the desire of many to use it to trade or speculate with. (Note: that although currencies like the USA dollar were once backed by gold, currently it, and nearly all currencies of the world, are backed by nothing either–so in that respect are not much different than cryptocurrencies.)
As long time reader of this COGwriter Church of God News page are aware, I never bought into the myth that Bitcoin was “as good as gold” and have long warned about it–here is a link to something posted here back in 2014: Bitcoin seller ‘goes dark’–Bitcoins are not the answer.
Notice also the following:
Crypto has made its own place in the world by making an amazing leap forward as a medium of exchange, with thus far unrivaled capabilities. But crypto is not gold, and can never be gold. I suggest that BTC and Crypto are better as a medium of exchange, while gold is a better medium for storing value.
This is not because of some dogma I have for the metal. Some will trot out “you are just talking your book” when I mention this.
The simple fact is, out of the near 185,000 tons of estimated above ground gold, someone owns, all of it. Every fine gram of gold above ground belongs to someone already, whether that be in the form of bars, coins, jewelry, the thin layer on astronauts helmets that protect them from solar radiation, or the gold plated contacts in the mining rigs used to mine crypto. New gold mined from the ground is usually spoken for before it ever hits a refinery. My job as a physical gold fund manager is not to convince people to buy gold, that job has already been done.
The reason crypto can never replace gold lies in physics: Gold cannot be destroyed
Everything else can. Computers. Exchanges. Mining Pools. Wallets. Powergrids. Internets. Nations. You name it. If you blew up the planet earth, the gold atoms would still be there.
Unlike anything else you can invest or store money in, gold doesn’t rely on any external force for this to continue to be true over time. It is sort of like a battery with no expiration date.
Gold exists as atomic number 79 on the periodic table. It is chemically inert and does not interact with oxygen. It is the only element with properties that make it completely immune to the forces of entropy. The only way to destroy it would be to fire it into the sun, or somehow put it in the middle of an equivalent fusion reaction that took the atoms apart at a subatomic level. (Stanczyk A. A Gold Guys View of Crypto, Bitcoin, and Blockchain. Medium.com, December 10, 2017 https://medium.com/@alex.stanczyk/a-gold-guys-view-of-crypto-bitcoin-and-blockchain-26e42eeab6b7)
That said, Bitcoin is still around.
But it remains my view that once governments get involved enough with their own digital currencies, that steps to eliminate Bitcoin will take place.
The European Union has already taken steps, some of which are in the following video:
EU to be ‘Sheriff’ of BitCoin & Digital Currencies
Will Bitcoin remain unregulated? The European Union does not think it should be and it released a paper titled “Proposal for EU Regulation on Markets in Crypto-Assets.” Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, earlier endorsed EU regulation of crypto and digital currencies. A Belgian declared that the EU was the “new Sheriff in town” to deal with the “wild west” of Bitcoin, blockchain, and other cryptocurrencies. The European Union now also has the European Public Prosecutor’s Office in operation, mainly to deal with financial matters? Will the Europeans end up controlling buying and selling associated with 666 in Revelation 13:16-18? Is Europe taking preliminary steps to do so now? Dr. Thiel address these issues.
Here is a link to our video: EU to be ‘Sheriff’ of BitCoin & Digital Currencies.
The Bible teaches that the coming Beast power will control buying and selling (Revelation 13:16-18)–hence the Bible makes no provision for something like Bitcoin being able to operate like it has.
Gold will outlast the US dollar and the European Beast power will have it.
Related to Bitcoin and gold, we have the following video:
Bitcoin … as good as gold?
“Bringing you news and analysis of world events in light of Bible prophecy.” This is the mandate of the Continuing Church of God. The world events Dr. Thiel will focus on today will be the recent record rise in the value of Bitcoin to over $100,000.00 The are several questions that will be addressed. Among them are: Will Bitcoin replace gold? Is Bitcoin as valuable as gold? Will nations just accumulate Bitcoin, will they just accumulate gold, or will they accumulate both? Will governments embrace bitcoin? What about the US dollar? Will it be replaced by Bitcoin? Is it possible that the US Dollar will still be the world’s reserve currency well into the Great Tribulation? How about Bitcoin? Is something similar to Bitcoin prophesied in the Bible? Dr. Thiel addresses these world news item in light of Bible prophecy. He uses scriptures that address the status of the US Dollar’s value during the Great Tribulation as well as the use of a Bitcoin like crypto currency by the Beast of Revelation 13. Is it possible that both gold and Bitcoin will be useless as a hope for salvation? Dr. Thiel gives the prophetic answer to that question at the end of this video.
Here is a link to our video: Bitcoin … as good as gold?
8. European financial and banking issues may well worsen. Europe is facing trade issues with the US, combined with a desire to deal with migrants, while trying to support a vastly stronger military.
After the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates a couple of years ago, the Europeans blamed the USA for putting them in a position to have to raise interest rates. Basically, because the USA kept raising its interest rates, the Europeans felt that they must do so also or face too much capital outflow. So, presuming the US Federal Reserve does this in 2025, this will impact Europe.
As far as Europe facing a banking crisis, notice something the late Pastor General of the old Worldwide Church of God, Herbert W. Armstrong, said in a sermon on July 7, 1984:
And I can see now, the event that is going to trigger the formation of the reunification in Europe; the resurrection of the medieval Holy Roman Empire that we’ve been looking forward to that is prophesied to come…
But I believe that some event is going to happen suddenly just like out a blue sky that is going to shock the whole world and is going to cause the nations in Europe to realize they must unite! … Well now I think I can see what may be the very event that is going to trigger…that is the economic situation in the world…
The whole banking structure in the United States is a network all jointed together. But not only that, one nation has to deal with other nations and imports and exports. And so they have to have a means of transforming money from one nation to another. And so the banking structure is international and interwoven…
Now when the financial structure breaks down, all civilization is going to break down…
So, an economic or banking crisis is what Herbert W. Armstrong concluded would drive Europe to unite.
And, I agree that it will take some type of crisis for Europe to reorganize.
The Bible shows that a major reorganization is prophesied to happen and push Europe under totalitarian control:
12 “The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have received no kingdom as yet, but they receive authority for one hour as kings with the beast. 13 These are of one mind, and they will give their power and authority to the beast. (Revelation 17:12-13)
Economic issues will be one of the factors that will get Europe to decide to reorganize and support a dictator that the Bible calls the Beast.
Biblical prophecies will come to pass.
Do NOT place your confidence in Bitcoin, the US dollar, the Euro, silver, or gold, but “seek first the Kingdom of God” (Matthew 6:33).
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
The Plain Truth About Gold in Prophecy. How Should a Christian View Gold? What About Silver? What do economists and the Bible teach about gold? Gold and silver may drop in value. Inflation/deflation? What do Christians need to know about gold and silver? Two videos of related interest may be: Germany, Gold, and the US Dollar and Silver, Science, and Scripture.
The End of US Dollar Dominance Is the USA losing its economic status? What about the petro-gold-yuan? A related video is also available: US Dollar being challenged by Gold-Petro-Yuan.
Is God Calling You? This booklet discusses topics including calling, election, and selection. If God is calling you, how will you respond? Here is are links to related sermons: Christian Election: Is God Calling YOU? and Predestination and Your Selection. A short animation is also available: Is God Calling You?
Christian Repentance Do you know what repentance is? Is it really necessary for salvation? A related sermon is also available titled: Real Christian Repentance.
The Gospel of the Kingdom of God This free online pdf booklet has answers many questions people have about the Gospel of the Kingdom of God and explains why it is the solution to the issues the world is facing. It is available in over 1,500 languages at ccog.org. Here are links to four kingdom-related sermons: The Fantastic Gospel of the Kingdom of God!, The World’s False Gospel, The Gospel of the Kingdom: From the New and Old Testaments, and The Kingdom of God is the Solution.
Lost Tribes and Prophecies: What will happen to Australia, the British Isles, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the United States of America? Where did those people come from? Can you totally rely on DNA? Do you really know what will happen to Europe and the English-speaking peoples? What about the peoples of Africa, Asia, South America, and the islands? This free online book provides scriptural, scientific, historical references, and commentary to address those matters. Here are links to related sermons: Lost tribes, the Bible, and DNA; Lost tribes, prophecies, and identifications; 11 Tribes, 144,000, and Multitudes; Israel, Jeremiah, Tea Tephi, and British Royalty; Gentile European Beast; Royal Succession, Samaria, and Prophecies; Asia, Islands, Latin America, Africa, and Armageddon; When Will the End of the Age Come?; Rise of the Prophesied King of the North; Christian Persecution from the Beast; WWIII and the Coming New World Order; and Woes, WWIV, and the Good News of the Kingdom of God.
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