China and USA will BOTH be hurt by trade war — will there be a winner?
(Pixabay photo)
There are costs to tariffs. There are debates about who will win this. Some say the USA and some China:
Who Holds The Cards In The Trade War: U.S. Or China?
April 15, 2025
He who produces or he who consumes. Who holds the power? If China cut off the United States, shelves could go empty in weeks. If the U.S. closes its doors to China, the country’s income would collapse ushering in a severe depression.
So should American’s count their blessings as they are showered with inexpensive goods or is “the customer always right”? https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/who-holds-cards-trade-war-us-or-china
Trump is ‘shredding’ credibility with allies while China benefits, former national security advisor John Bolton says
April 15, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump’s moves to take China to task on trade are likely to backfire as his sweeping global tariffs hit allies as well as rivals, according to former national security advisor John Bolton.
“This is certainly not the way you treat your friends. You don’t slap them in the face publicly and say, I’m going to tariff you unless you do better on trade negotiations,” Bolton told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday.
“And in fact, the one country that really deserves a trade war — China — we’ve put them in a much better position strategically by going to war on tariffs with our best friends, whereas if we had all joined together, maybe we would have had an impact on China’s behavior. So, this is a not just an economic blunder, which I think it clearly is. It’s a strategic blunder that’s going to cost the United States dearly if this tariff policy isn’t reversed.” …
“If you want to deal with that problem, certainly it would make sense to get together with Japan, Korea, Singapore, other Asian countries, the European countries, others around the world who have been victimized by China in the same way the U.S. has,” Bolton said.
“Instead, we’re having a war with our friends and really crippling our ability to deal effectively with China.”
Xi on a charm offensive
International leaders have criticized Trump’s actions. On Tuesday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou said that “the president of the United States has started a hurricane” that shattered trust around the world, according to a Reuters translation.
On Monday, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping embarked on what some observers are dubbing a charm offensive through Southeast Asia, first visiting Vietnam followed by scheduled trips to Malaysia and Cambodia. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/trump-shredding-credibility-with-allies-as-china-benefits-john-bolton.html
China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands
April 15, 2025
China has ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing Co. jets as part of the tit-for-tat trade war that’s seen US President Donald Trump levy tariffs of as high as 145% on Chinese goods, according to people familiar with the matter.
Beijing has also requested that Chinese carriers halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing matters that are private. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/china-tells-airlines-stop-taking-boeing-jets-as-trump-tariffs-expand-trade-war
US exports will be affected and this will impact many jobs–as well as US jobs involved with importing. Consumers in the US will be impacted: The standard of living in the USA has long been subsidized by nations such as China. Prices of many items will rise in the USA.
China, however, will also be affected.
Victor Davis Hansen wrote the following:
China Would Lose A ‘Trade War’ With The US… “Gradually, Then Suddenly”
China’s trade war bluff may backfire as the U.S. pushes allies to choose between a rogue economic actor and a flawed but fairer partner with unmatched global power.
No one wants a “trade war” with China, or for that matter with any nation. Nonetheless, China has been waging one for years and is now locked in a tariff recalibration with the Trump administration.
In this American effort to find trade parity and equity, China can do some short-term damage to the U.S., especially in terms of ceasing exports of some pharmaceuticals, phones, and computers. But ultimately, it cannot win—and will eventually lose catastrophically. It will likely accept that reality sooner rather than later.
We are only in the first week of the escalating rhetoric and tariffs. But already China is appealing to its Asian rivals, Australia, and the EU to join in fighting the supposed American bully. …
China is running a nearly $1-trillion trade surplus with the world. Its mercantilism is the result of market manipulations, product dumping, asymmetrical tariffs, patent, copyright and technology theft, a corrupt Chinese judicial system, and Western laxity—or what might be mildly called “bullying.” The U.S. accounts for about a third of China’s trade surplus, with most of the EU and Asian nations accounting for the other two-thirds.
In the past, third-party nations did not appreciate the ends to which China has gone to warp the international trading system. …
If China really does reduce most of its exports to the U.S., America will have to scramble for a year or so to establish new supply chains and some alternate importers of U.S. products. But after a year of gradual dislocation, China will begin to hemorrhage, and then quite suddenly, given the U.S. has almost all the advantages—if it chooses to use them.
One, if it ever comes to a real trade war, remember that nations with the higher tariffs and larger trade surpluses usually lose, given that their economies are far more dependent on mercantile exports and trade imbalances. Psychologically, it is far harder to convince the world of victimhood when tariffs and surpluses illustrate contrived trade aggression. https://amgreatness.com/2025/04/14/china-would-lose-a-trade-war-with-the-us-gradually-then-suddenly/
Yes, China has a lot to lose.
Despite preparing for a trade war for some time, China is vulnerable.
Internally, China has lots of rules in place that also make it subject to major civil unrest.
While China has grown tremendously, economically, one of the things that most Westerners do not realize is that China has a system that prevents its citizens from agrarian areas from having the same rights as those in urban areas. It is called the hukou. Here is more information about that:
The hukou
Through a rigorous and rigid household registration system designed to control the movement of China’s 1.3 billion people, the central government classifies all its citizens as either city dwellers or rural peasants. The registration, also known in Chinese as hukou, determines not only a citizen’s residence but also what kind of social services individuals are eligible for…In Beijing, which has an estimated 5 million migrant workers, none of these people are allowed to obtain state-sponsored health care or schooling if their hukou is registered in their hometowns—which most likely it is. As a result, their children—many of whom are born in the Chinese capital—can only attend privately-run and unapproved schools. (Mong A, Gu B. In Beijing, 40,000 students stranded. MSNBC, August 19, 2011. http://behindthewall.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/19/7413538-in-beijing-40000-students-stranded?lite)What is hukou …
A hukou determines where your kids can go to school, where you can own a home, city or regions where you can access healthcare, find permanent jobs and receive loans. …
Historically, the hukou system and the danwei have formed the basis of social order allowing Beijing to control any labour strikes or protests by workers. …
The hukou system has allowed the Beijing government to control labour mobility in the vast network of industrial production hubs across major cities.
As foreign travel and work opportunities have become difficult since the pandemic started, there is growing frustration among the youth. …
The change in the hukou system is responding to the lack of jobs and growing frustration with Beijing’s zero-Covid policy. Even the foreign talent China has relied on to fill the skills gap continues to exit the megacities. Beijing isn’t depending on the return of foreign workers anymore, and instead, the strategy appears to be to boost growth at home through policy realignment.
The jobs crisis and flailing economic growth has Beijing worried. The Chinese cities now seem confident with the idea of permitting a demographic change within their territories.
The growing moment to change the hukou system has the potential to transform the social order in Chinese society, which will leave an impact on politics. 07/06/22 https://theprint.in/opinion/eye-on-china/growing-frustration-in-youth-has-the-chinese-govt-worried-it-sees-solution-in-hukou/1026134/
The hukou looks to be a factor in economic problems and social unrest in China.
Neither China nor the USA will ultimately “win” this trade war.
There will be costs to both sides, despite various pundits who claim that one or the other is winning (which could appear true for a time).
As far as biblical prophecies pointing to a winner, that is covered in our latest sermonette video:
Trade Wars – and the Winner will be …
US President Trump imposed tariffs on a global scale. Those tariffs were imposed on friend and foe alike. It seems as if President Trump is no respecter of nations. But how will this work out for the United States? Will these tariffs result in other nations drawing closer together that have had rather cold, and even not so cold, relations in the past? Will global tariffs result in trade wars? Were the events which are happening predicted by any in the Continuing Church of God? Is Europe drawing closer to China? Is Europe drawing closer to Latin and South America? With the exception of a few of America’s allies, is the net result of these tariffs a worldwide scramble to create new alliances and new trading partners to the exclusion of the United States? What will be the future result of these new alliances? Many of the nations that are now seeking new alliances were just recently America’s allies. They were her friends. Dr. Thiel brings to light the fate of America and her allies at the hands of her former friends, as revealed in the book of Lamentations. As we rapidly approach the end times listen in as Dr. Thiel brings to light world events. Then listen as he shines the light of Bible prophecy directly on the questions raised from these world events.
Here is a link to our video: Trade Wars – and the Winner will be …
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Trade Wars – and the Winner will be … US President Trump imposed tariffs on a global scale. Those tariffs were imposed on friend and foe alike. It seems as if President Trump is no respecter of nations. But how will this work out for the United States? Will these tariffs result in other nations drawing closer together that have had rather cold, and even not so cold, relations in the past? Will global tariffs result in trade wars? Were the events which are happening predicted by any in the Continuing Church of God? Is Europe drawing closer to China? Is Europe drawing closer to Latin and South America? With the exception of a few of America’s allies, is the net result of these tariffs a worldwide scramble to create new alliances and new trading partners to the exclusion of the United States? What will be the future result of these new alliances? Many of the nations that are now seeking new alliances were just recently America’s allies. They were her friends. Dr. Thiel brings to light the fate of America and her allies at the hands of her former friends, as revealed in the book of Lamentations. As we rapidly approach the end times listen in to this video as Dr. Thiel brings to light world events. Also listen as he shines the light of Bible prophecy directly on the questions raised from these world events.
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