CNBC: There’s a very high probability we’re in the end game for dollar strength, strategist says


COGwriter

CNBC reported the following:

There’s a very high probability we’re in the end game for dollar strength, strategist says

August 24, 2018

While the dollar is set for its biggest weekly decline since March, one strategist said Friday that the dollar strength story is nearing its end.

“I think there’s a very high probability that we’re in the end game of dollar strength against most currencies,” Bob Parker, investment committee member at Quilvest Wealth Management told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday. …

Parker thinks the U.S. economy could certainly slow down in 2019.

“At a time when European growth is holding close to 2.3, 2.4 percent and the long dollar trade is actually a very concentrated trade at the moment, you can easily see a situation where most currencies turn around more positively against the dollar for next year.” …

Dollar not popular anymore?

While the dollar continues to remain a global currency, the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shown that the greenback’s share of currency reserves fell in the first quarter of 2018 to a fresh four-year low, while euro, yuan and sterling’s shares of reserves increased. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/24/high-probability-were-in-the-end-game-for-dollar-strength.html

The dollar still remains the world’s primary reserve currency.

It will remain so for some time.

But, more and more analysts are starting to see significant international shifts away from the USA dollar.

As I have been reporting for some time, US sanctions and tariff threats are a factor. Notice something from earlier this month:

9 August 2018

Teheran (AsiaNews / Agencies) – Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has responded to US President Donald Trump’s threats saying that the United States will not be able to prevent the Islamic Republic from exporting oil. …

In the first row between those who want to preserve business relations with Tehran there is Brussels and the block of European countries, according to which the nuclear agreement works and should not be canceled. In spite of the American sanctions, the Union intends to continue to buy oil from the Islamic Republic and to do so it is willing to “create accounts” in the Iranian Central Bank. “The result of these measures – concludes Zarif – will be US isolation”.

The words of the head of Iranian diplomacy are confirmed by some experts and analysts of international politics who believe the economic and commercial war launched by the US administration against Teheran will eventually isolate the United States. In an editorial published in Strategic Culture the British scholar Finian Cunningham urges Washington to respect multilateralism as other nations do. Otherwise, the risk is “economic isolation” by the rest of the international community. In particular, Trump reinforces the course undertaken by Russia and China that intend to free themselves from the US dollar in international trade. Without the reserve currency privilege, the US economy would collapse. http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Zarif-responds-to-Trump:-US-sanctions-will-not-stop-Iranian-oil-44622.html

Note the statement: “Without the reserve currency privilege, the US economy would collapse.”

The USA is taking risks and one day its dollar will not be the world’s reserve currency.

This could happen with a combination of multi-national cooperation, natural and/or man-made disasters, and increasing USA debt.

The USA ‘benefits’ in many ways by having the world’s predominant reserve currency:

the United States derives certain benefits by virtue of its control over the reserve currency. The first of these is that the value of the currency is higher than it would otherwise be based solely on the country’s fundamentals. The fact that oil-importing nations are essentially forced to purchase U.S. dollars to acquire oil allows the United States to export its inflation, keeping domestic rates low. It also increases foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries above where it would otherwise be as oil-exporting nations seek a home for the sizable quantities of U.S. dollars that they have from the sale of oil. This allows the United States to borrow more money and at lower rates than it otherwise could. As the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the oil trade declines, we can expect both of these benefits to disappear. While both effects would have an adverse impact on the American economy, the declining demand for its debt may be more devastating.  … Over the past few months, we have seen more moves by the nations of China and Russia to reduce the current dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system. As this process plays out, the United States will begin to lose the benefit that the dollar’s privileged status gives it. This will likely lead to rising inflation at home and a gradually weakening economy. 04/23/18 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164925-china-ramps-threats-u-s-dollar-reserve-currency?page=4

I put ‘benefits’ within the quotation marks because while having the world’s main reserve currency reduces interest rates, this has lulled the USA into a false sense of security related to debt that will end with its destruction (cf. Habakkuk 2:6-8).

The loss of reserve currency status will one day have major ramifications:

What happens to the US economy if the Dollar is no longer the reserve currency of the world?

If US T-bills lose their attraction as reserve investments … it would get harder for the Treasury to sell more of them, requiring higher interest rates to be paid and potentially forcing austerity measures on the US government or triggering classic deficit spending inflation (“printing money” to pay for government, this doesn’t happen now because the deficit is financed through sales of those bonds at extremely low interest rates).

If foreign central banks and governments start exchanging their US dollars for some other currency or currencies, then the value of the dollar in international trade drops, it becomes more expensive to buy imported goods in the US and more profitable to sell exported goods from the US. This could have all kinds of political and social effects, especially if the shift was rapid, severe, and unexpected. https://www.quora.com/What-happens-to-the-US-economy-if-the-Dollar-is-no-longer-the-reserve-currency-of-the-world

The above is warning about inflation, higher interest rates, and troubles borrowing. The USA is the most highly indebted nation of all time. The USA has been essentially on a borrowing binge the last four decades and its economy is now dependent upon borrowing. The Bible paints an even worse scenario that in the time of the end (Habakkuk 2:2-3) the highly indebted will be taken over (Habakkuk 2:6-8) and destroyed (Daniel 11:39; USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses).

Notice also a recent video on our Bible News Prophecy YouTube channel:

15:19

US Sanctions and Tariffs leading to New World Order?

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said new US sanctions would be a declaration of economic war. Iran, North Korea, China, Europe, and Turkey are also upset about USA sanctions and tariffs. A Turk asserted “Somebody must find a solution and stop the USA.” The BRICS nations see US sanctions and tariffs as helpful to their objectives to trade without the USA. Are “unintended consequences” of USA policies threatening the current Anglo-American world order and leading to a New World Order? What has ‘Lord’ Jacob Rothschild and Russian President Vladimir Putin stated? Does Bible prophecy say that a confederation of Turks, Arabs, and Europeans pose a real threat to the USA and UK? Is the final time of the Gentiles coming? Will it be worse than people imagine? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues and more.

Here is a link to our video: US Sanctions and Tariffs leading to New World Order?

US sanctions and trade policies are factors that will lead to the loss of the USA dollar as the world’s premier reserve currency.

As I warned prior to Donald Trump’s inauguration, there will be many “unintended consequences” to some of his policies and statements.

The days of the US dollar’s dominance are numbered. US sanctions and tariffs are helping lead to its demise.

There is a cost to USA sanctions.

They are pushing the Gentile nations to come up with something that the USA will not like.

One day the USA dollar will be worth no more than the scrap value of the cotton-paper it is printed on.

It will be worse than CNBC seems to think even though it reported the view that the US dollar is currently losing strength.

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

The End of US Dollar Dominance Is the USA losing its economic status? What about the petro-gold-yuan? A related video is also available: US Dollar being challenged by Gold-Petro-Yuan.
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