CT: What’s Next for China?
Beijing After Rain Beijing on a Normal Sunny Day
Christianity Today has an article titled Whither China? Terrance Halliday that includes the following:
In the aftermath of the catastrophic Sichuan earthquake, there will be considerable international sympathy for China, perhaps defusing some of the criticism that built in the months leading up to the games, as the Olympic torchbearers ran gauntlets of foreign protesters. But which China will follow the Beijing Olympics? The hot China of spectacular economic growth or virulent anti-Japanese demonstrations? The warm China of pandas and cultural exchanges? The cool China of military build-up and hard-headed Communist Party rule? Or the cold China of Tiananmen Square and support for the genocidal Sudanese government?…
Certain facts about China are unassailable. Over thirty years China has sustained annual economic growth of around 8-10 percent, lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, become the world’s industrial factory, enacted hundreds of new laws, moved from a command economy to a predominantly private market, graduated from amongst the poorest countries in the world to a mid-level developing country, risen from a country of bicycles to only the third nation in history to put a man in space…
On political rights—freedom of speech, freedom of thought, freedom of assembly—the government takes a harder line. Here social stability is its touchstone. The Communist Party will brook no rivals. That includes religion, because of a “long history of religious movements toppling dynasties in the past.” The Propaganda Department and State Security Ministry control tightly discussion of politically sensitive topics…
If all goes well China will be a South Korean success story—a rich, stable, democratic, open society—in a few decades. It might even become, as the book’s subtitle provocatively suggests, “a model for the rest.”
This is not the China that Susan Shirk observes. A distinguished China scholar and former Deputy Assistant Secretary with responsibility for China in the Clinton Administration, Shirk has been closely following Chinese politics for three decades…
The social security of the “iron rice bowl has gone,” and with it guaranteed health care, permanent employment, and assured retirement pensions. Tens of millions of workers have lost their jobs, especially in China’s northeast rustbelt. China’s west and hundreds of millions of its rural population are being left behind in a widening inequality that could trigger “massive unrest.” Opportunistic speculators, often in complicity with local officials, seize land without adequate compensation. Corruption is rampant among officials. Environmental problems make domestic headlines daily.
Add these together—rising mass protests, ethnic unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang, labor unrest, rural unrest, student unrest over international incidents, social unrest—mix them with flammable nationalism, and the paranoia of China’s authoritarian leaders intensifies. From this vantage point, a white-hot economy merely buys time for China’s vulnerable leaders who can barely stay in the saddle of their writhing dragon.
China’s Communist leaders, Shirk believes, have made a Faustian bargain. Above all, they strive to stay in power. Yet they are “haunted by the fear that their days in power are numbered.” They struggle to maintain political control, fear their own citizens and exude “a deep sense of domestic insecurity.” They look back to Tiananmen Square, where they came within a hairsbreadth of losing the country…
Not least, says Shirk, ultimately the Party relies on the People’s Liberation Army to keep it in power, as Tiananmen bloodily revealed. Leaders who lack the gravitas of Mao or Deng Xiaoping have bought loyalty by spending heavily on military modernization. The military is projecting its naval power farther and farther from China’s coasts; its rockets can destroy satellites in space; its missiles become ever more accurate and farther reaching. A stronger military tolerates slights less willingly…
For James Mann, former Beijing Bureau Chief for the Los Angeles Times, neither Peerenboom’s relentless optimism nor Shirk’s sober realism hits the right note…
To rock the boat would be to tell the truth, Mann says, and the truth is ugly. China is a repressive state run by the Party (7-8 percent of the population) for its narrow interests. He concurs with Shirk that the Party will do anything to stay in power—mow down weaponless protesters with tanks, spirit away tens of thousands of political prisoners to remote camps, use torture and executions to silence dissidents. One way or another, political dissent is ruthlessly silenced…
In Mann’s view, purveyors of the “Soothing Scenario” subscribe to the “Starbucks Fallacy”: more middle-class consumers will eventually lead to more political choice. In fact, China’s population, it is said, is pretty happy. “People in China don’t care about politics,” they just care about “making money.”
In response, Mann doesn’t fall back on a fragility analysis, à la Shirk. He acknowledges that there is an “Upheaval Scenario” in which disaster looms through economic downturns and political disintegration in response to inequality, corruption, rural protests, land seizures, and ethnic struggles…
Shirk skillfully points to contingencies for China’s future, to pressure points and faultlines in Chinese society and politics from which seismic shocks might abruptly alter the course of China’s economy and position in the world. An international political incident could escalate out of control, shattering the fragile porcelain that is China’s present creation. Or an economic shock—contamination of Chinese food, an international backlash against Chinese competition, an over-reaction to Chinese product safety—could precipitate a crash “that throws millions of workers out of their jobs or sends millions of depositors to withdraw their savings from the shaky banking system.” The threat of such an event, Shirk warns, is the “greatest political risk” facing China’s leaders.
Not only is history fraught with contingency, unexpected turns, and sudden jolts, but social and economic theories of democracy and markets cannot naively assume that one necessarily or inevitably accompanies the other. Mann does us the service of calling into question the widely held assumption that democracy in China is just over the horizon if we only wait long enough and don’t interfere. As he rightly observes, another model altogether is possible—an economically developed country that is also politically repressive…
Curiously, none of these authors has much to say about religion in either China or the United States, now or in the future…Shirk by contrast attributes none of China’s fragility to religious restiveness, although she hints that rights-champions in the United States, some of whom are religious activists, might be among those whom China’s leaders and publics find confrontational. http://www.christianitytoday.com/bc/2008/004/8.30.html
Economically China will grow, but it will have problems. LCG’s Dr. Meredith commented on the pollution and the potential for social unrest on his visit there (for details please see China Olympics and Air Pollution). As China has a 5th of the world’s population and is growing in economic might, what happens to it will increasingly have more impact on the rest of the world.
But China while appearing strong, does have significant instability issues that eventually money itself will not satisfy.
And according to the Bible (Revelation 13:11-12), religion will play a huge role in China’s future–even though the religion that does will be centered in Europe–a power that the Chinese will eventually turn against (Daniel 11:44).
Some articles of possibly related interest may include:
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 1: Genesis and Chinese Characters This article provides information showing that the Chinese peoples must have known about various accounts in the Book of Genesis up until their dispersion after the Tower of Babel.
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 2: The Sabbath and Some of God’s Witness in China When did Christianity first come to China? And is there early evidence that they observed the seventh day sabbath?
Asia in Prophecy What is Ahead for China? Is it a “King of the East”? What will happen to nearly all the Chinese, Russians, and others of Asia? China in prophecy, where?
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”?
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