‘December has arrived and it’s time to forecast 2022 … two Black Swans – Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping’
Black Swan (Calvin Teo)
Microsoft News posted the following:
December has arrived and it’s time to forecast 2022. I’ll start the ball rolling by framing the most gloomy scenario: 2022 could mark the end of the world, via global war and nuclear exchanges.
Most Americans will find that forecast surprising and offensive. We tend to be optimistic Bayesians: If the sun rose today, certainly it will rise the same way tomorrow. But unfortunately, there are “Black Swan” events – unexpected shocks to the system that totally change the future.
And today we confront two Black Swans – Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Both are brilliant, experienced leaders. Putin has written extensively on his vision for Russia – for example, his Millennium Papers and his “PhD” dissertation on energy economics. Xi is similar. Both have consolidated power within brutal systems. Both are committed nationalists who see themselves as major historical figures. Both are men of action, willing to take large, calculated risks. And both likely understand that 2022 is the year they must act.
Putin is dedicated to the defense and rise of Russia. He seeks strategic territorial expansion, the destruction of NATO, and eventual political hegemony over Europe. The coming year could be the key stepping stone for his dreams. A first step would be invading Ukraine, giving Russia an economic boost and consolidating Black Sea strategic access. Russian troops are already massing on the border.
Xi envisions political hegemony over East Asia (and beyond). The next step would be the invasion and conquest of Taiwan, where he is upping military pressure. At the same time, Iran and its leaders dream of destroying Israel and gaining Middle East hegemony.
All of them recently have engaged in joint war games and all may be coming to believe that 2022 is their once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The reason: President Biden. …
America is at its weakest politically in decades. Our enemies have seen all they need to see. 12/06/21 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-cassandra-forecast-biden-s-2022-global-war/ar-AARwJqd
Yes, Americans (as well as many others) feel that things will remain like they have.
The Apostle Peter was inspired to warn against that:
1 Beloved, I now write to you this second epistle (in both of which I stir up your pure minds by way of reminder), 2 that you may be mindful of the words which were spoken before by the holy prophets, and of the commandment of us, the apostles of the Lord and Savior, 3 knowing this first: that scoffers will come in the last days, walking according to their own lusts, 4 and saying, “Where is the promise of His coming? For since the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they were from the beginning of creation.” 5 For this they willfully forget: that by the word of God the heavens were of old, and the earth standing out of water and in the water, 6 by which the world that then existed perished, being flooded with water. 7 But the heavens and the earth which are now preserved by the same word, are reserved for fire until the day of judgment and perdition of ungodly men.
8 But, beloved, do not forget this one thing, that with the Lord one day is as a thousand years, and a thousand years as one day. 9 The Lord is not slack concerning His promise, as some count slackness, but is longsuffering toward us, not willing that any should perish but that all should come to repentance. (2 Peter 3:1-9)
Change is coming.
The article at the beginning of this post mentioned ‘black swans.’ What do they have to do with anything? Notice also the following:
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events . . . was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
- The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs (Wikipedia, viewed 12/12/13)
Some events that people feel are not predictable, of course, are predictable.
Notice what God had recorded in His word:
9 Remember the former things of old,
For I am God, and there is no other;
I am God, and there is none like Me,
10 Declaring the end from the beginning,
And from ancient times things that are not yet done,
Saying, ‘My counsel shall stand,
And I will do all My pleasure,’
11 Calling a bird of prey from the east,
The man who executes My counsel, from a far country.
Indeed I have spoken it;
I will also bring it to pass.
I have purposed it;
I will also do it. (Isaiah 46:9-11)
God’s counsel will stand. That includes prophecies from the Bible.
Related to some things to pay attention to in 2022, here is a link to our latest video: 22 items to watch in 2022.
As far as Vladimir Putin goes, the Associated Press reported the following:
December 26, 2021
MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Sunday he would ponder a slew of options if the West fails to meet his push for security guarantees precluding NATO’s expansion to Ukraine.
Earlier this month, Moscow submitted draft security documents demanding that NATO deny membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet countries and roll back its military deployments in Central and Eastern Europe.
Putin has urged the West to move quickly to meet the demands, warning that Moscow will have to take “adequate military-technical measures” if the West continues its “aggressive” course “on the threshold of our home.”
Asked to specify what such Moscow’s response could be, he said in comments aired by Russian state TV Sunday that “it could be diverse,” adding without elaboration that “it will depend on what proposals our military experts submit to me.”
The U.S. and its allies have refused to offer Russia the kind of guarantee on Ukraine that Putin wants, citing NATO’s principle that membership is open to any qualifying country. They agreed. however, to launch security talks with Russia next month to discuss its concerns. https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-moscow-1f80249ac893d533fb6fcfdecb3d1ad3
Something that should be considered here is that Vladimir Putin believes that the USA and Europe promised Russia that NATO would not to expand into the former eastern-block nations, yet NATO has done that–and Russia wants that to stop. On the other hand, the USA and Europe basically promised Ukraine that if it gave up its nuclear weapons that they would essentially guarantee that Russia would not end up with any of its territory–and Russia has already ended up with Crimea.
The West needs to be careful about its promises (and that is part of why there are issues in the Middle East today–promises were made to Israelis and Palestinians which conflicted).
That being said, will the end of the world happen in 2022?
No.
Related to that, we put out the following video:
Much is happening around the world today. Is the Great Tribulation about to begin? Various ones have pointed to it starting in 2022 or 2023–and stated that they got 2022 from the Holy Spirit. What about centuries old predictions supposedly pointing to 2022 by Nostradamus and Paracelsus? Some Muslims have pointed to Jesus returning in 2022 or 2023. Is that possible? Should you rely on Jonathan Cahn’s views of the ‘Shemitah year’ to understand prophecy? What about the ‘Super Shemitah’ (also known as the Jubliee year)? Are there still signs that Jesus and Daniel pointed to that we need to see first? If so, what do they include? What is the earliest year that the Great Tribulation can begin according to scripture? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues and more.
Here is a link to the video: Can the Great Tribulation start in 2022 or 2023?
We in the Continuing Church of God “have also a more sure word of prophecy; whereunto ye do well that ye take heed, as unto a light that shineth in a dark place, until the day dawn, and the day star arise in your hearts” (2 Peter 1:19, KJV).
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
22 items to prophetically watch in 2022 Much is happening. Dr. Thiel points to 22 items to watch (cf. Mark 13:37) in this article. Here is a link a related video: 22 items to watch in 2022.
Does God Have a 6,000 Year Plan? What Year Does the 6,000 Years End? Was a 6000 year time allowed for humans to rule followed by a literal thousand year reign of Christ on Earth taught by the early Christians? Does God have 7,000 year plan? What year may the six thousand years of human rule end? When will Jesus return? 2029 or or 2031 or 20xx? There is also a video titled 6000 Years: When will God’s Kingdom Come? Here is a link to the article in Spanish: ¿Tiene Dios un plan de 6,000 años?
Might the U.S.A. Be Gone by 2028? Could the USA be gone by the end of 2028 or earlier? There is a tradition attributed to the Hebrew prophet Elijah that humanity had 6,000 years to live before being replaced by God’s Kingdom. There are scriptures, writings in the Talmud, early Christian teachings that support this. Also, even certain Hindu writings support it. Here is a link to a related video: Is the USA prophesied to be destroyed by 2028? In Spanish: Seran los Estados Unidos Destruidos en el 2028?
The Great Tribulation: What Happens First? What events have happened? What are some events that are now happening? And what events need to happen for the Great Tribulation to start? Here is a link to a related sermon video: Counting Down to the Great Tribulation. Here is a video in the Spanish language: Contando los eventos y el inicio de la Gran Tribulación.
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2022, 2023, or 2024? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede la Gran Tribulación comenzar en el 2020 o 2021? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? A related video is: Great Tribulation: 2026 or 2027? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation start in 2022 or 2023? Here is a video in the Spanish language: Es El 2021 el año de La Gran Tribulación o el Grande Reseteo Financiero.
Russia and Ukraine: Their Origins and Prophesied Future Russia in prophecy. Where do the Russians come from? What about those in the Ukraine? What is prophesied for Russia and its allies? What will they do to the Europeans that supported the Beast in the end? There is also a video sermon available: Russia in the Bible and in Prophecy and a video sermonette available: Ukraine in Prophecy?
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 1: Genesis and Chinese Characters Where did the Chinese people come from? Japeth, Javan, Magog? Is there evidence that the Chinese peoples must have known about various accounts in the Book of Genesis up until their dispersion after the Tower of Babel? What do Chinese writings and characters help show? What about the Garden of Eden, Noah’s Flood, and the Tower of Babel? Here is a link to a version of this article in Spanish: ¿Prueban los caracteres chinos la exactitud de la Biblia? A related sermon is also available: China’s biblical past and prophetic actions.
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 2: The Sabbath and Some of God’s Witness in China When did Christianity first come to China? What about the Apostle Thomas? Did Confucius say anything to get the Chinese to possibly consider Christianity? Is there early evidence that they observed the seventh day sabbath? What about the Ten Commandments? What type of Church of God witness has there been to China? What has been happening with China that ties it together with prophecies in Revelation? What about the 200 million man army and Armageddon? What about the Belt and Road Initiative and end time Babylon the Great? A related sermon is also available: China’s biblical past and prophetic actions. Watch also China’s Silk Road and Babylon the Great.
Asia in Prophecy What is Ahead for Asia? Who are the “Kings of the East”? What will happen to nearly all the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and others of Asia? China in prophecy, where? Who has the 200,000,000 man army related to Armageddon? Here is a link to a related sermon: Asia in Prophecy. Two YouTube video are Is China THE Threat to the United States of America? and China: A King of the East.
The Eurasian Union, the Kings of the East, and Bible Prophecy Is there a Eurasian union that will be formed? Are any leaders working on that in the 21st century? Does the Bible teach that there will be a Eurasian union? What about the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)? A related video would be Is The Eurasian Union Rising?
Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction Can the USA survive two full presidential terms? In what ways are Joe Biden and Kamala Harris apocalyptic? This book has hundreds of prophecies and scriptures to provide details. A Kindle version is also available and you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to your free Kindle reader app (or if you already have one or a Kindle), you can go to: Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction (Kindle) to get the book in seconds.
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