Donald Trump’s executive orders: The start of major trade wars?


COGwriter

US President Donald Trump’s executive orders are causing concern:

March 31, 2017

President Trump, who vowed that “from now on, those who break the rules will face consequences,” …

As a recap, the President signed two executive orders on trade today.  One directive orders a review of all U.S. trade deficits with other countries and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has said the country-by-country, 90-day assessment would be used to guide trade policy. Meanwhile, the other order aims to strengthen enforcement of existing countervailing duties and anti-dumping penalties against foreign products. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-31/watch-live-trump-signs-executive-orders-reign-foreign-trade-abuses

31 March 2017

US President Donald Trump is launching a campaign to pinpoint nations and goods responsible for his country’s huge trade deficit. It’s a protectionist warning shot directed at trade partners like China and Germany.

Top administration officials said Donald Trump would issue a pair of executive orders on Friday “aimed at rooting out the causes and culprits” behind the US’ over $500-billion (470-billion-euro) annual trade deficit. Pundits see this as a first move to convert recent tough trade rhetoric into action.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said one of the forthcoming orders would result in analysts going “country by country and product by product” to report back to Trump within 90 days.

He said they would look for evidence of cheating, inappropriate behavior and trade deals “that have not lived up to their promises.” Also under scrutiny would be “currency misalignment and troublesome WTO constraints.”

Getting serious on duties

“Needless to say, the No. 1 source of the deficit is China,” Ross argued, before listing more than a dozen other countries that would potentially be involved, including Germany, Japan and Mexico. …

In a second executive order, Trump is to tell the administration to look at ways the US can better recover trade duties on products that are subsidized by foreign governments or dumped on the US market.

Listing various problem areas, Peter Navarro, a top Trump trade adviser said “this is a big deal – it’s steel, chemicals, agricultural products, machinery – the whole gambit.”

On Thursday, the US Department of Commerce announced that seven foreign producers dumped certain carbon and alloy steel products in the US.

“The determination of dumping, or selling a product below its fair price, applies to imports from Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan,” it said in a statement.

Concerning Germany, irregularities were found with regard to Dillinger Hüttenwerke and the Salzgitter Group, which were accused of dumping prices.

In response to the move, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel on Friday urged Brussels to file a complaint at the World Trade Organizaion against the US over planned duties on steel plate imports from five EU member countries.

Gabriel said the US seemed prepared to give US companies “unfair competitive advantage” over European producers, even though this violated international trade legislation. http://www.dw.com/en/trump-to-attack-foreign-trade-cheats/a-38223624

China and Europe are concerned about the USA, which will likely drive them closer together. Donald Trump’s earlier executive order (see After Trump’s executive order, TPP-related nations start to look to China) against the TPP agreement has already seemed to have helped both China and Europe in Asia and elsewhere.

Notice also the following:

March 31, 2017

The United States will no longer bow to the rest of the world on trade because President Donald Trump plans to act, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told CNBC on Friday.

“We are in a trade war. We have been for decades. The only difference is that our troops are finally coming to the rampart. We didn’t end up with a trade deficit accidentally,” he said, warning about the consequences of doing nothing. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/commerces-wilbur-ross-us-is-already-in-a-trade-war.html

Well, things are getting tenser now.

This talk of trade wars is something I have warned about on this page for years. Notice something I posted back in 2008:

Negotiations will continue and some type of loose agreements will happen. In the spirit of accommodation and personal interest, many of the “standards” of the European Union will be adopted by the USA, Canada and Mexico, as well as by nearly all of the countries of the world. The Arab nations will most likely agree with many of the standards as they seem to be destined to form a brief end-time alliance with the Europeans (The Arab World In the Bible, History, and Prophecy).

However, over time, it will become increasingly clear that the British will be in more agreement with the Canadians and Americans and that the European Union in more agreement with the Mexicans than the EU will have with the English-speaking nations.

Trade wars and/or serious trade disputes will most likely arise.

The Brits will ultimately decide that they are more supportive of the Americans and Canadians. They will be so much more supportive that they will end up in a trading agreement with them (with the Australians and New Zealanders probably also becoming part of that agreement).

The EU will decide that Mexico and the rest of Latin America are in more agreement with it and thus make some type of serious trading agreement with most (or all) of Latin America. The Vatican will also have influence here as Latin America is highly Roman Catholic.

The Europeans and Americans, however, will continue to have military agreements, though many will be tense about them. (Thiel B. A Combined EU & North American Trade Block Coming? COGwriter.com, March 3, 2008)

The fact of Brexit and the EU’s response today must be pushing the Brits to conclude that they need to move closer to the USA on trade.

Trade wars have been listed as part of the Twelve ‘grey swan’ events to watch for in 2017.

We also put together a YouTube video recently titled Trade Wars: Are COG warnings coming to pass?

Trade disputes are likely to be a factor that will lead to World War III.

As regular readers of this page are aware, the idea that we could be looking at a coming trade war is not a new one. Part of the reason for World War II was essentially a trade war, that turned into an actual war between the USA and Japan.

Over thirty years ago, Gene Hogberg of the old Worldwide Church of God wrote the following:

Prepare for Trade War

THE Free World’s 40-year period of unprecedented prosperity may soon come to a crashing halt. Support in the United States — the West’s leading trading nation — for maintaining free trade is crumbling fast.

Instead, there reverberate in the halls of Congress warnings to trade partners to open markets or face the retaliation of heightened tariffs and quotas. …

Mr. Reagan is painfully aware of where unbridled protectionism could lead. In recently rejecting a protectionist plea from one industry, the President evoked memories of the Depression — era Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. “Some of us remember the 1930s, when the most destructive trade bill in history, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, helped plunge this nation and the world into a decade of depression and despair,” he told a radio audience. “From now on, if the ghost of Smoot-Hawley rears its ugly head in Congress, if Congress creates a depression — making bill, I’ll fight it.”

But the ghost is rising, and support for the President’s trade policy is waning, even from those within his own party.

What Smoot-Hawley Did

Just how disastrous was the Smoot-Hawley bill? The devastating role it played in the Great Depression was explained in the September 5 issue of The Wall Street Journal, in an article written by its editor, Robert L. Bartley. “The stock-market crash of 1929 came in the midst of debate in Congress over the tariff,” wrote Mr. Bartley. “It had spent the year adding item after item to the protection list. In mid — 1930 the Smoot-Hawley Bill became law, with the highest tariffs in the nation’s history.” What might have been an ordinary correction, continued Mr. Bartley, “turned into the Great Depression…. As the international accounts closed down, the world economy choked.” …

Dangerous Security Changes

Other experts warn that American political leaders — responding to calls for immediate competitive relief from their constituents — may be ignoring another lesson of the Great Depression: that the severe contraction of world trade gave added impetus to imperialist surges in Asia and Europe, specifically Japan and Germany.

Since 1945 Japan has chosen the mercantile road as its path to power, prestige and national restoration. Germany, specifically the Federal Republic of Germany, is heavily dependent upon world trade, exporting a full third of its manufactured goods.

Access to the U.S. market is central to the economies of Japan and the other nations of the Pacific Basin, writes National Review executive editor John McLaughlin, “and hence perhaps to their stability.” If protectionism takes hold, what would happen to Japan and to Western Europe, whose economic heart is in Germany? Protectionism, leading to a full-blown trade war, would likely break the extensive joint defense relationships between the U.S. and its primary World War II foes, now allies for the past 40 years.

Americans should then prepare to witness the emergence of a nuclear — armed Japan as well as a nuclear — armed united Europe with Germany at its core. It’s doubtful whether the American public and its elected representatives have thought out the likely end results of actions now under way.

Former Senate majority leader Howard H. Baker Jr. sounded this warning: “The disastrous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was rushed through Congress… and it took 14 years and a world war to straighten out the mess.” (Hogberg G. Prepare for Trade War! Plain Truth, January 1986)

Back in 1971, the late Herbert W. Armstrong wrote the following:

Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III?

Either we start raising high tariff barriers against other countries, starting a TRADE WAR which in time will trigger the nuclear war that will DESTROY US – or, American workers are going to have to MEET the competition of the workers in other countries , by lowering living standards. Obviously American workers are not going to choose to do the latter. And if they don’t – well, THE HANDWRITING IS ON OUR NATIONAL WALL. (Armstrong HW. Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III? Plain Truth, 1971)

And while his basic impression of timing was off as was Gene Hogberg’s, it is correct that trade issues will be a factor that will trigger WWIII. A war that will be against the USA, Canada, and UK by a power that will reorganize (Revelation 17:12-13) and then rise in Europe. A Europe that is angry at the UK for Brexit and one that is mad at the USA for a host of reasons (including decisions of its former President Obama and statements by its current President Donald Trump) will one day take steps.

There is a cost to trade wars and tariffs. Those who think otherwise are fooling themselves.

We are seeing more in Europe turn further away from the USA.

Massive shifts in trade are beginning to take place.

A real war between Europe and the USA (with the UK basically on the USA’s side) will come as one day Europe will take steps to ‘eliminate the competition’ so to speak (cf. Daniel 8:25; 11:39; USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses).

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