Economy and the Fate of the US Dollar

The Wall Street Journal reported the following today:

As Budget Deficit Grows, So Do Doubts on Dollar

Wall Street Journal – Aug 26, 2009

LONDON — The U.S. economy may be showing signs of recovering from the financial crisis, but the jury is still out on the future of the U.S. dollar.

While many analysts expect the dollar to strengthen in coming months as the crisis fades and the U.S. economy turns toward growth, a growing chorus of investors is expressing concern about the longer-term outlook for the greenback.

In a new twist to an old refrain among economists, who have long worried about the effects of growing U.S. debt, they say that the huge liabilities the U.S. is taking on to dig its way out of crisis could ultimately undermine faith in the dollar.

“There has been a lot of disappointment with the way the U.S. credit crisis was handled,” says Claire Dissaux, managing director of global economics and strategy for Millennium Global Investments Ltd., a London investment firm specializing in currencies. “The dollar’s loss of influence is a steady and long-term trend.”

On Tuesday, the Obama administration added fuel to concerns about the dollar, saying the U.S. will run a cumulative budget deficit of $9 trillion over the next 10 years, $2 trillion more than it had previously projected.

“That’s going to be negative for the dollar,” says Adam Boyton, a currency analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. President Barack Obama also reappointed Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, whose efforts to rescue the economy have won praise, but have also entailed pumping large amounts of freshly created dollars into the financial system.

Investors and economists have long harbored concerns about the dollar’s decline, especially in the beginning of this decade as the federal government and consumers ran up their debtloads to finance everything from foreign wars to flat-screen TVs. Last fall’s financial crash suggested that such fears may be overblown: As markets plunged in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., investors scrambled to stash their cash in U.S. Treasury bills, perceiving them to be the safest investments. That boosted the value of the U.S. dollar against many of its major counterparts.

Now, though, major investors like Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett and bond investment firm Pimco fear the government’s fiscal and monetary stimulus programs could end up fueling inflation in coming years and hammering the dollar. Higher inflation eats up the returns of bond investments that provide a fixed interest income, making them less attractive to investors. Less demand for U.S. bonds could mean a weaker dollar.

Mr. Buffett, for example, worries that U.S. policy makers will fail to move decisively to curtail the nation’s ballooning net debt, expected by some to rise to more than 75% of annual economic output by 2013. Instead, policy makers might tolerate higher inflation, which makes existing debts more manageable but would hurt the U.S.’s creditors, including China and Japan. In this scenario, investors would demand much higher interest when lending to the U.S. government, raising its borrowing costs and making further budget deficits harder to finance at a time when an aging population will sharply boost the costs of social security and government-sponsored health care.

Investors are also growing more comfortable with the idea of emerging economies like China, Russia and Brazil playing a bigger role in shaping international finance. Some analysts, including Pimco portfolio manager Curtis Mewbourne, say emerging economies have a unique opportunity to use the crisis to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar., which tends to account for the lion’s share of their foreign-exchange reserves.

“Investors should consider whether it makes sense to take advantage of any periods of U.S. dollar strength to diversify their currency exposure,” Mr. Mewbourne wrote in a recent note.

Earlier this year, China’s central-bank governor called for moving toward a “super-sovereign” reserve currency, one not belonging to any particular country. Analysts generally see such an option as unrealistic, since the U.S. wouldn’t want to give up its status as the main currency in which the world’s central banks hold their reserves, and any new reserve currency would require a deep and developed market where it could be traded. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125122938682957967.html

The economic policies of the current and former administrations in Washington, D.C. essentially have guaranteed that, short of some massive development (like a new energy source or manufacturing technology, etc.), the long-term outlook for the dollar is simply not good.

Europe, the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, China, and India), and even smaller players seem to have been affected enough by potentially-inflationary dollar policies that they seem intent to not support the idea that the US dollar should remain as THE international currency. This will basically guarantee a reduction of the standard of living in the USA.

Those who follow Bible prophecy may wish to ponder the idea that the Bible predicts that those in massive debt (like the USA and UK) now are in will suddenly lose it all. Notice that the Bible mentions that this destruction will happen to those that increased their debt at the end times:

3 For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry…
6 “Will not all these take up a proverb against him, And a taunting riddle against him, and say, ‘Woe to him who increases
What is not his–how long? And to him who loads himself with many pledges’? 7 Will not your creditors rise up suddenly? Will they not awaken who oppress you? And you will become their booty. 8 Because you have plundered many nations, All the remnant of the people shall plunder you (Habakkuk 2:3,6-8).

The above prophecy will be fulfilled at the time of the end (it makes little sense that it would be directed towards the modern nation of Israel as it does not have enemy creditors). It must be a nation or group of nations with some prominence.

Yet it is the the United States and its Anglo-allies that have loaded pledges of debt in these end times that they really do not expect to pay back. The USA has the greatest amount of debt that any nation has ever had, while the UK is close to having the highest per capita debt of any other nation.

Even secular sources are starting to recognize the problem. The fate of the US dollar is not looking good.

Some articles of possibly related interest may include:

Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, British, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States?
Prophecies of Barack Obama? Eight reasons why Barack Obama is apocalyptic and eight reasons why Barack Obama is not the Antichrist. This article includes many biblical and non-biblical prophecies, from around the world, that seem to discuss Barack Obama. Did Nostradamus predict Barack Obama dealing with the Antichrist? Might Barack Obama set the stage for the kings of the North and South as at least one Shiite prophecy suggests? This is the longest and most complete article on this page on Barack Obama prophecies. Read it and decide for yourself if President Obama seems to be fulfilling various prophecies.