Politico: Why China is not as powerful as the West might think
China’s hukou policy, designed to limit geographic mobility, significantly affects bargaining power within the household and favors the spouse with the better hukou, from Liqun Zhuge and @lang_econ https://t.co/4Fb9cqgTnW pic.twitter.com/pXHYPYgE8b
— NBER (@nberpubs) May 18, 2023
China continues to take steps to rise and increase its influence. While many see China as the power to replace the USA, others note that China has various issues. Here is something from Politico:
Why China is not as powerful as the West might think
August 3, 2023
President Xi Jinping wants to project China as a powerful trade partner — or dangerous adversary — to virtually any country hoping to be successful in the 21st century.
“The rise of the East, and the decline of the West” is his motto. As Chinese growth rocketed and Western politicians fretted over how to respond, it became a national catchphrase, too.
But among the Chinese people — and increasingly in the chancelleries and boardrooms of Europe — a different story is beginning to be told: Beijing’s march toward global economic domination may not be invincible after all.
China managed only weak GDP growth after belatedly liberating itself from pandemic restrictions. The property market is in crisis and youth unemployment has risen to hazardous levels, with one estimate putting it at 50 percent. Private entrepreneurs increasingly live in fear of what the state will do to their businesses and consumers have stopped spending the way they did in the pre-COVID good times. …
Even the Communist Party leaders aren’t hiding their problem. At their annual pre-summer Politburo meeting, which sets the tone for the economic work for the remainder of the year, party officials judged that the economy “is facing new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in the operation of some enterprises, many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and a grim and complex external environment,” state news agency Xinhua quoted the Politburo as saying.
Getting out
In Europe, as well as the U.S., governments are reassessing their own economic vulnerabilities radically. …
Western leaders from the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen to U.S. President Joe Biden now routinely talk about economic “de-risking” from China. The peril of linking too closely to the Chinese economy has even hit home with Olaf Scholz, traditionally seen as Europe’s leading dove on China policy. …
According to Eskelund, the EU chamber chief, 11 percent of businesses surveyed last year said they were weighing up whether to leave China. This year, the exact same share of companies reported they had already taken the decision to go. https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-jinping-economy-gdp-business-growth-power-west-eu-us/
Yes, there are concerns about China in the West and particularly in Europe.
And Europe is taking steps. Politico reported the following a few weeks ago:
Europe tries to win Latin America back from China
DE-RISKING TAKES EUROPE (BACK) TO LATAM: Latin American leaders such as Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his Argentinian counterpart Alberto Fernández are gathering in Brussels for a two-day EU summit with the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. …
Still, the EU sees a clear strategic need to step up engagement with the region thanks to China. “Latin America, the Caribbean and Europe need each other more than ever before,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during a conference with Latin American businesses in Brussels on Monday. “The world is taking a hard impact for the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and this happens against the backdrop of China’s growing assertiveness abroad.”
The supply of critical raw materials such as lithium is, well, critical. The EU gets 97 percent of its lithium from China, von der Leyen warned last week. It’s a focus shared by Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský. “China’s growing influence in Latin America is a great concern,” Lipavský told China Watcher on the sidelines of the summit. “We must make efforts to prevent China’s monopoly and counterbalance its huge investments in Latin America in mining and processing of critical raw materials. Unlike China, the EU is not interested in making Latin America its vassal.”
For now, LatAm watches with cautious optimism: “Latin America and the Caribbean was not a priority for Europe,” Argentina’s Undersecretary for Latin American & Caribbean Affairs Gustavo Martínez Pandiani told POLITICO on Friday, referring to the years since the last gathering in Brussels in 2015, billed as “a partnership for the next generation.” Pandiani added: “We do appreciate that Europe is coming back to Latin America and the Caribbean. We don’t want to limit that comeback just to the consequences of the war.” https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/china-watcher/europe-tries-to-win-latin-america-back-from-china/
As I have written for years, Latin America will mainly align with Europe (see also Ursula von der Leyen making trade deals in Latin America).
As far as China goes, notice something from earlier this year:
’10 years left’: This famed geopolitical analyst says China is going to collapse in the next decade …
February 19, 2023
Is China heading for a total collapse: political, economic and demographic?
Conventional wisdom says no way. It boasts a massive military and an iron grip on its people, and owns a whopping $870 billion in U.S. debt. …
While that’s no recipe for demise, some people would argue that China will soon be hanging on by a thread. That includes geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan, whose new forecast makes a case few would otherwise consider.
Zeihan raised eyebrows in a January interview with Joe Rogan, in which he predicted the People’s Republic would collapse in 10 years. Rogan, though no stranger to controversy, was taken aback. …
From multiple and significant angles, China’s economy is under heavy strain. In particular, the nation has experienced rare civil unrest due to its strict zero-COVID-19 policy, which locked down vast sections of the economy, lowered industrial output and curbed consumer spending.
Some important metrics offer evidence of an economic contraction. The country’s exports dropped 9.9% in December 2022, while a slowdown in growth also weighs on the country’s outlook. …
As for its population, China suffers from a disadvantage in its demographics.
China’s population is getting older — fast. As its people age and retire, fewer working-age individuals are around to support them. The United Nations forecasts the nation’s population — now roughly 1.42 billion — to fall below 800 million by the year 2100.
The nation’s one-child policy, in place for more than three decades before it ended in 2016, exacerbated the problem and today threatens long-term economic prospects. …
China’s economy relies heavily on international trade; exports accounted for more than 20.4% of its nearly $18 trillion gross domestic product in 2021, according to the World Bank. That makes China the world’s largest exporter.
But trade dependence makes China vulnerable to global economic fluctuations and trade policy shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed that reliance when demand for Chinese products dropped. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-years-left-famed-geopolitical-160000503.html
Yes, China is facing problems.
And yes, various government policies are issues.
A few years ago Bloomberg News, reported some claimed that we have seen “Peak China”:
February 10, 2020
Plenty of experts have lived to regret their predictions of the downfall, the collapse — the peak of anything China. But here it is. A bold call for the ages: We very likely have just witnessed Peak China (as an export powerhouse). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/trade-war-latest-china-may-have-just-peaked-as-an-export-power
I have warned for many years that China would NOT be the power to lead the world’s economy in the 21st century as the Bible points to Europe doing that. Notice one such posted warning from 2014:
Now the Bible shows that Europe (Revelation 13 & 18), and not Asia, will be the major economic leader in the future prior to Jesus’ return (watch Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European?). But what about China?
Some believe that it is surpassing the USA and the rest of the world, and hence, China will be the leader of the 21st century. The Bible does not teach that it can hold that position for much time, if at all. (Thiel B. BRICS have a political agenda? China to soon be less relevant? COGwriter, January 25, 2014)
While China has grown tremendously, economically, one of the things that most Westerners do not realize is that China has a system that prevents its citizens from agrarian areas from having the same rights as those in urban areas. It is called the hukou. Here is more information about that:
The hukou
Through a rigorous and rigid household registration system designed to control the movement of China’s 1.3 billion people, the central government classifies all its citizens as either city dwellers or rural peasants. The registration, also known in Chinese as hukou, determines not only a citizen’s residence but also what kind of social services individuals are eligible for…In Beijing, which has an estimated 5 million migrant workers, none of these people are allowed to obtain state-sponsored health care or schooling if their hukou is registered in their hometowns—which most likely it is. As a result, their children—many of whom are born in the Chinese capital—can only attend privately-run and unapproved schools. (Mong A, Gu B. In Beijing, 40,000 students stranded. MSNBC, August 19, 2011. http://behindthewall.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/19/7413538-in-beijing-40000-students-stranded?lite)What is hukou …
A hukou determines where your kids can go to school, where you can own a home, city or regions where you can access healthcare, find permanent jobs and receive loans. …
Historically, the hukou system and the danwei have formed the basis of social order allowing Beijing to control any labour strikes or protests by workers. …
The hukou system has allowed the Beijing government to control labour mobility in the vast network of industrial production hubs across major cities.
As foreign travel and work opportunities have become difficult since the pandemic started, there is growing frustration among the youth. …
The change in the hukou system is responding to the lack of jobs and growing frustration with Beijing’s zero-Covid policy. Even the foreign talent China has relied on to fill the skills gap continues to exit the megacities. Beijing isn’t depending on the return of foreign workers anymore, and instead, the strategy appears to be to boost growth at home through policy realignment.
The jobs crisis and flailing economic growth has Beijing worried. The Chinese cities now seem confident with the idea of permitting a demographic change within their territories.
The growing moment to change the hukou system has the potential to transform the social order in Chinese society, which will leave an impact on politics. 07/06/22 https://theprint.in/opinion/eye-on-china/growing-frustration-in-youth-has-the-chinese-govt-worried-it-sees-solution-in-hukou/1026134/
The hukou looks to be a factor in economic problems and social unrest in China. Notice also:
August 16, 2022
- Independent estimates put the number of left-behind children at around 70 million with one or both parents away, and 31 million with both gone
- A major factor in decisions to leave children behind is the hukou, China’s rigid household registration system, which makes relocating very difficult …
China’s “left-behind” children. The term refers to families where either one or both parents live away for most of the time from their children, mainly as migrant workers in big cities.
Official government figures claimed there were almost 13 million left-behind children in 2020. However, most independent estimates put the figure at around 70 million for households where one or both parents live away, and 31 million for those with both parents gone. The vast majority of these children are from impoverished rural areas.
A major contributing factor to parents’ decision to leave their children for years at a time is the country’s rigid system of household registration, known as hukou.
Under this system, those without registration find accessing schooling, housing and healthcare extremely difficult. For migrant workers it is often impossible to register in the cities where they work, meaning their children are left without any public services unless they remain in the region where they were born. https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3189084/i-dont-want-money-i-just-want-mum-sobbing-boy
Even people who move from agrarian regions to the cities, they still are normally registered as agrarian/rural and do not get the same rights or even education for their children–so children are often left behind. This disparity of registration, combined with severe pollution, corruption, and a host of other problems, will affect China more than most realize–despite its generally rising wealth–a lot of which is invested in places that may default.
Problems in China will help Europe rise up.
Now the Bible does say that all trading nations will have become wealthy trading with Babylon (which will be the restored European Empire–not Asia), and that they really will prosper during the beginning years of the great tribulation:
3 For all the nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth have become rich through the abundance of her luxury (Revelation 18:3).
13 Javan, Tubal, and Meshech were your traders. They bartered human lives and vessels of bronze for your merchandise. 14 Those from the house of Togarmah traded for your wares with horses, steeds, and mules (Ezekiel 27:13-14).
Thus, merchandising Asia (Javan, Tubal, Meshech, and others), as the world’s most populous region, is prophesied to attain wealth from the coming restored European Empire, but it will not then be the economically, most-powerful block of nations in the world. It may well be because of debt defaults and internal unrest that China will not have the abilities to lead the world this century as it seems to hope.
Expect to see change in Europe and China.
UPDATE 08/06/23: We just uploaded the following related video:
China’s Rising, But …
China has risen to be recognized as a major economic power this century. A motto of China’s President Xi Jinping reportedly is “The rise of the East, and the decline of the West.” This rise of China has been concerning many in the West. Is China or Europe prophesied to economically-dominate the world before Jesus returns? What about “peak China”? Did Peter Zeihan say that China might collapse in ten years? Might China’s hukou system contribute to social unrest and other problems? Does the United Nations forecast that China’s population will drop by 620 million people by the end of this century? Has Europe been taking steps to reduce China’s influence in Latin America? Dr. Thiel and Steve Dupuie go over these matters.
Here is a link to our video: China’s Rising, But …
Biblical prophecies are coming to pass.
As Jesus said:
37 And what I say to you, I say to all: Watch!” (Mark 13:37)
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 1: Genesis and Chinese Characters Where did the Chinese people come from? Japeth, Javan, Magog? Is there evidence that the Chinese peoples must have known about various accounts in the Book of Genesis up until their dispersion after the Tower of Babel? What do Chinese writings and characters help show? What about the Garden of Eden, Noah’s Flood, and the Tower of Babel? Here is a link to a version of this article in Spanish: ¿Prueban los caracteres chinos la exactitud de la Biblia? A related sermon is also available: China’s biblical past and prophetic actions.
China, Its Biblical Past and Future, Part 2: The Sabbath and Some of God’s Witness in China When did Christianity first come to China? What about the Apostle Thomas? Did Confucius say anything to get the Chinese to possibly consider Christianity? Is there early evidence that they observed the seventh day sabbath? What about the Ten Commandments? What type of Church of God witness has there been to China? What has been happening with China that ties it together with prophecies in Revelation? What about the 200 million man army and Armageddon? What about the Belt and Road Initiative and end time Babylon the Great? A related sermon is also available: China’s biblical past and prophetic actions. Watch also China’s Silk Road and Babylon the Great.
Asia in Prophecy What is Ahead for Asia? Who are the “Kings of the East”? What will happen to nearly all the Chinese, Russians, Indians, and others of Asia? China in prophecy, where? Who has the 200,000,000 man army related to Armageddon? Two YouTube video are Is China THE Threat to the United States of America? and China: A King of the East.
Mexico, Central America, South America, Brazil, and the Caribbean in Prophecy [Español: México, América central, Suramérica, Brasil y el Caribe en la profecía] [Português: México, América Central, Ámérica do Sul, e Brasil na profecia] What will happen to those of Latin America? Will they have prosperity? Will they cooperate with Europe? Will they suffer in the future? What role might the various Caribbean nations/territories play? Two videos of related interest are available: Will Mexico Regain USA Territories? and Donald Trump and Mexico’s future. A sermon of related interest is available: Latin America in Prophecy.
Europa, the Beast, and Revelation Where did Europe get its name? What might Europe have to do with the Book of Revelation? What about “the Beast”? Is an emerging European power “the daughter of Babylon”? What is ahead for Europe? Here is a link to a video titled: Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European?
European Technology and the Beast of Revelation Will the coming European Beast power would use and develop technology that will result in the taking over of the USA and its Anglo-Saxon allies? Is this possible? What does the Bible teach? Here is a related YouTube video: Military Technology and the Beast of Revelation.
Might German Baron Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg become the King of the North? Is the former German Defense Minister (who is also the former German Minister for Economics and Technology) one to watch? What do Catholic, Byzantine, and biblical prophecies suggest?
Germany’s Assyrian Roots Throughout History Are the Germanic peoples descended from Asshur of the Bible? Have there been real Christians in Germanic history? What about the “Holy Roman Empire”? There is also a You-Tube video sermon on this titled Germany’s Biblical Origins.
Germany in Biblical and Catholic Prophecy Does Assyria in the Bible equate to an end time power inhabiting the area of the old Roman Empire? What does prophecy say Germany will do and what does it say will happen to most of the German people?
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? In the Spanish language check out ¿Quién es el Rey del Norte? Here are links to two related videos: The King of the North is Alive: What to Look Out For and The Future King of the North.
The Great Monarch: Biblical and Catholic Prophecies Is the ‘Great Monarch’ of Catholic prophecies endorsed or condemned by the Bible? Two sermons of related interest are also available: Great Monarch: Messiah or False Christ? and Great Monarch in 50+ Beast Prophecies.
Must the Ten Kings of Revelation 17:12 Rule over Ten Currently Existing Nations? Some claim that these passages refer to a gathering of 10 currently existing nations together, while one group teaches that this is referring to 11 nations getting together. Is that what Revelation 17:12-13 refers to? The ramifications of misunderstanding this are enormous. A related sermon is titled Ten Kings of Revelation and the Great Tribulation.
WTO/TTIP and the Babylonian Beast Will international trade agreements like WTO/TTIP/CETA lead to the fulfillment of end time prophecies concerning the Babylonian Beast power that the Book of Revelation warns against? What does the Bible teach? A related video would be WTO Trade Deal and the Rise of the European Beast Power.
USA in Prophecy: The Strongest Fortresses Can you point to scriptures, like Daniel 11:39, that point to the USA in the 21st century? This article does. Two related sermon are available: Identifying the USA and its Destruction in Prophecy and Do these 7 prophesies point to the end of the USA?
Who is the King of the West? Why is there no Final End-Time King of the West in Bible Prophecy? Is the United States the King of the West? Here is a version in the Spanish language: ¿Quién es el Rey del Occidente? ¿Por qué no hay un Rey del Occidente en la profecía del tiempo del fin? A related sermon is also available: The Bible, the USA, and the King of the West.
Lost Tribes and Prophecies: What will happen to Australia, the British Isles, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the United States of America? Where did those people come from? Can you totally rely on DNA? What about other peoples? Do you really know what will happen to Europe and the English-speaking peoples? What about Africa, Asia, South America, and the Islands? This free online book provides scriptural, scientific, historical references, and commentary to address those matters. Here are links to related sermons: Lost tribes, the Bible, and DNA; Lost tribes, prophecies, and identifications; 11 Tribes, 144,000, and Multitudes; Israel, Jeremiah, Tea Tephi, and British Royalty; Gentile European Beast; Royal Succession, Samaria, and Prophecies; Asia, Islands, Latin America, Africa, and Armageddon; When Will the End of the Age Come?; Rise of the Prophesied King of the North; Christian Persecution from the Beast; WWIII and the Coming New World Order; and Woes, WWIV, and the Good News of the Kingdom of God.
Does God Have a 6,000 Year Plan? What Year Does the 6,000 Years End? Was a 6000 year time allowed for humans to rule followed by a literal thousand year reign of Christ on Earth taught by the early Christians? Does God have 7,000 year plan? What year may the six thousand years of human rule end? When will Jesus return? 2031 or ? There is also a video titled 6000 Years: When will God’s Kingdom Come? Here is a link to the article in Spanish: ¿Tiene Dios un plan de 6,000 años?
Might the U.S.A. Be Gone by 2028? Could the USA be gone by the end of 2028 or earlier? There is a tradition attributed to the Hebrew prophet Elijah that humanity had 6,000 years to live before being replaced by God’s Kingdom. There are scriptures, writings in the Talmud, early Christian teachings that support this. Also, even certain Hindu writings support it. Here is a link to a related video: Is the USA prophesied to be destroyed by 2028? In Spanish: Seran los Estados Unidos Destruidos en el 2028?
The Great Tribulation: What Happens First? What events have happened? What are some events that are now happening? And what events need to happen for the Great Tribulation to start? Here is a link to a related sermon video: Counting Down to the Great Tribulation. Here is a video in the Spanish language: Contando los eventos y el inicio de la Gran Tribulación.
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2023, 2024, or 2025? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede la Gran Tribulación comenzar en el 2020 o 2021? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? A related video is: Great Tribulation: 2026 or 2027? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation start in 2022 or 2023? Notice also: Can Jesus return in 2023 or 2024? Here is a video in the Spanish language: Es El 2021 el año de La Gran Tribulación o el Grande Reseteo Financiero.
The Times of the Gentiles Has there been more than one time of the Gentiles? Are we in it now or in the time of Anglo-America? What will the final time of the Gentiles be like? A related sermon is available and is titled: The Times of the Gentiles.
Armageddon Who is involved and when will this gathering happen? Here is also a video from Dr. Thiel, from Tel Megiddo in Israel: Armageddon. Other videos include: Armageddon Will it come on Trump’s watch?, Iraq, Armageddon, & Prophecy, Freemasonry, Armageddon, and Rome, Is China paving roads to Armageddon?, and Jordan, Petra, and Armageddon.
Lost Tribes and Prophecies: What will happen to Australia, the British Isles, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the United States of America? Where did those people come from? Can you totally rely on DNA? What about other peoples? Do you really know what will happen to Europe and the English-speaking peoples? What about Africa, Asia, South America, and the Islands? This free online book provides scriptural, scientific, historical references, and commentary to address those matters. Here are links to related sermons: Lost tribes, the Bible, and DNA; Lost tribes, prophecies, and identifications; 11 Tribes, 144,000, and Multitudes; Israel, Jeremiah, Tea Tephi, and British Royalty; Gentile European Beast; Royal Succession, Samaria, and Prophecies; Asia, Islands, Latin America, Africa, and Armageddon; When Will the End of the Age Come?; Rise of the Prophesied King of the North; Christian Persecution from the Beast; WWIII and the Coming New World Order; and Woes, WWIV, and the Good News of the Kingdom of God.
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