Recession in 2023? Worldwide depression in 2025?
(Unsplash photo)
Might interest rate hikes trigger a recession or worse?
Notice the following:
How Much Longer Before The “Most Aggressive Hiking Cycle In History” Triggers The Recession
March 1, 2023
Everyone knows that monetary policy acts with a lag, but the $64 trillion question – and in the case of global capital markets, literally – is how big said lag is at a time when central banks have engaged in one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in history to stem the runaway inflation spawned by the Helicopter Money unleashed during the covid shock, and not just by the Fed, which in 2022 saw the most rate hikes in a calendar year in history…
US banks forecasting rising 2023 delinquencies is worse than Jan’07 levels. …
{Jim} Reid notes that DB’s recession probability model has risen to 90% over the next 12 months (on the other end, Goldman sees recession odds at 25% over the next year). https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-long-most-aggressive-hiking-cycle-history-triggers-recession
Recession talk has been in the air:
A recession is coming for most developed nations in 2023, and this is where economists predict the worst
January 3, 2023
With 2023 upon us, many bankers, economists, and business leaders have cautioned to brace for a global economic contraction that will send many countries plunging into a recession. As much as one-third of the global economy could enter recession territory this year, IMF director Kristalina Georgieva said over the weekend, warning of a “tough year” ahead for the world.
Georgieva said simultaneous contractions in three major economies—the U.S., the EU, and China—will be the driving forces behind a global recession, as wealthy nations will be unable to escape economic slowdowns.
U.K. in trouble
But with the lingering effects of the pandemic and the Ukraine war continuing to drag down growth for the rest of 2023, some developed countries are set to fare far worse than others.
The U.K. is facing a “deeper and more prolonged recession” than any nation in the G7, a global policy forum representing seven of the world’s most advanced economies, as around four-fifths of economists say the U.K. will be burdened by a much longer recession than its peers, according to a Financial Times survey released Monday. …
Vladimir Putin has punished Western sanctions by severely limiting Europe’s access to Russian natural gas, which sent energy prices soaring last year. The supply squeeze has sparked an energy crisis on U.K. shores, given the country relies on natural gas for 40% of its electricity generation and 84% of its heating, and unlike the EU has a very limited gas storage capacity to fall back on during times of high energy demand. https://fortune.com/2023/01/03/recession-2023-g7-nations-kristalina-georgieva/
There is a growing consensus that 2023 is going to be a miserable year for the U.S. economy and for the global economy as a whole.
#1 The IMF: “We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession. Even countries that are not in recession, it would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people”
#2 Bloomberg: “Economists say there is a 7-in-10 likelihood that the US economy will sink into a recession next year, slashing demand forecasts and trimming inflation projections in the wake of massive interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.”
#3 The World Bank: “As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies that would do them lasting harm, according to a comprehensive new study by the World Bank.”
#4 Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan: “We’re going to have a shallow recession” …
Our politicians in Washington kept borrowing and spending trillions upon trillions of dollars that we did not have, and that definitely delayed our day of reckoning.
And the Federal Reserve kept the financial markets artificially propped up for years by endlessly pumping giant mountains of fresh cash into the system.
But such foolish measures only made our long-term problems even worse, and now our leaders are losing control.
All of the “mega-bubbles” are starting to burst, and the system is beginning to fall apart all around us. 01/02/23 http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/11-ominous-predictions-for-2023/
The economies of many nations are built more and more on a foundation of debt.
Debt and interest are problems.
Yet, last September, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell claimed that there is not “a painless way” to get inflation behind us without raising interest rates (see AP: Powell’s stark message: Inflation fight may cause recession) is not quite the case.
The government of the USA and various of its states could easily change rules to allow more drilling of oil off the Gulf and California coasts, as well as in Alaska, plus open the Keystone pipeline. That would result in a massive reduction in the price of oil and fertilizers, plus would also reduce transportation costs. The governments could also provide incentives for more food production, which would lower food costs.
Instead, the Fed plan has been to repeatedly increase interest rates (which have been artificially low) in an effort to slow down the economy and reduce wage demands.
Anyway, one of the reasons I made this post is that I saw the following:
Global Depression By 2025, Caused By Interest Rates & Inflation: Simon Hunt
{Simon Hunt} predicted a rocky road ahead for the global economy, that will eventually culminate in the massive pile of $trillions in global unserviceable debt going into default causing a worldwide depression by 2025. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2023-02-28/global-depression-2025-caused-double-digit-interest-rates-inflation-simon-hunt
Yes, depression is possible.
Yes, the USA is getting to the point where its debt is “unserviceable.”
The Bible warns about something that will happen to a heavily indebted nation. Notice what the Hebrew seer Habakkuk wrote over 2,600 years ago:
3 For the vision is yet for an appointed time; But at the end it will speak, and it will not lie. Though it tarries, wait for it; Because it will surely come, It will not tarry … 5 Indeed, because he transgresses by wine, He is a proud man … 6 “Will not all these take up a proverb against him, And a taunting riddle against him, and say, ‘Woe to him who increases What is not his—how long? And to him who loads himself with many pledges’? 7 Will not your creditors rise up suddenly? Will they not awaken who oppress you? And you will become their booty. 8 Because you have plundered many nations, All the remnant of the people shall plunder you… (Habakkuk 2:2-3,6–8). …
Notice that what is to happen is so bad, that people who read the prophecy should run, when it is time for it to be fulfilled. Since that prophecy is to be fulfilled at the appointed time of the end, it is still for the future, but perhaps not too far distant in the future. No nation has ever been in as much total debt as the U.S.A. And on a per capita basis, the U.K. and Canada are in similar positions.
Notice also:
President Biden has put his lack of financial acumen on full display while blithely presiding over unbridled inflation that is shoving our economy toward a leaden recession. The dismal phenomenon could not be more appropriately named: Bideninflation.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday that personal consumption expenditures leaped 0.6% in January — more than the 0.4% predicted by analysts and far greater than the 0.2% increase in December. And prices on an annualized basis that had been trending downward for the past several months have veered upward again, from 5.3% in December to 5.4% in January.
The bureau has also reported that year-over-year inflation in January measured 6.4%, outpacing a 6.1% increase in wages. Yet Mr. Biden doesn’t seem to grasp the bottom line. “Annual inflation in January is down from the summer,” he said in a Friday statement, “while the unemployment rate has remained at or near a 50-year low and take-home pay has gone up.” His cherry-picked economic metrics are accurate, but they tiptoe around the fact that Americans continue to slip backward along the path to prosperity.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s white-knuckle struggle to bring down prices by raising interest rates makes a recession virtually inevitable. That’s the assessment contained in a new white paper written by former Federal Reserve Gov. Frederic Mishkin and a group of prominent U.S. economists. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/28/editorial-in-bidenflation-nation-presidents-polici/
To deal with inflation, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Now, just paying interest on the USA official debt is coming to close to $1 trillion per year.
But those rates are still artificially low.
When the time comes that the Federal Reserve is no longer able to keep interest rates artificially low, the U.S.A. will continue past the point of no return. And its debt level already seems to be there.
The USA, etc. remain greedy. Notice that is believed to have been a cause of the Great Depression:
GREED — the Root Cause of the Crash
The true causes of the Depression are still with us. Burgeoning personal debt, workers demanding higher wages (often without producing any more), business cutting corners, employee theft, and stock market speculation.
The question is: HOW will these causes express themselves in the nation’s economic picture?
Statistician Roger Babson, who successfully predicted both the 1920 and 1929 crashes, has made this point clear over more than half a century of economic forecasts, and dozens of books on the subject. In essence, he said the technical statistics that economists watch are only wall thermometers telling the present “temperature” of today’s economy.
If you want to see what the temperature of the future will be, Babson counseled, look at the barometer reading — the way people as a whole are dealing with each other and how they live their own lives. In other words, are workers producing more, are employee and shoplifting thefts down, are we borrowing less, is the federal economy in the black?
On such readings of the economy, Babson was virtually the only major economist to foresee the serious crash.
The top economists scoffed when he said, on September 5, 1929, “Sooner or later a crash is coming and it may be terrific… factories will shut down… men will be thrown out of work… the vicious circle will get in full swing and the result will be a serious business depression” (John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash, Houghton-Mifflin, 1955, pp. 89-90).
Government economists, on the other hand, seemingly clambered over each other to reassure the many paper-thin speculators that such talk was impossible, unthinkable, perhaps even un-American. “Don’t Sell America Short” was a common aphorism in 1929.
The Money Scramble
But had the economists looked at the furnace room — at the basic social or moral problems expressing themselves economically they would have KNOWN some kind of a “crash” was coming. Had the economists based their forecast on the materialistic attitude of most Americans, they would have seen the handwriting on the wall.
The root motivation was greed, but the main specific cause of the 1929 Depression in particular was “that private indebtedness was increasing faster than earning power, that purchasing was not keeping pace with production …” (Bining and Kleen, op. cit., p. 452).
In other words, people had bought so many items on time payments, that they couldn’t afford any more — even on installments! The people were “bought out” while the newly installed assembly lines were producing record numbers of new gadgets.
In 1929, there was a surplus of goods, but almost no buying power (money). The situation in America today is different — too few American-made goods are chasing too much available money. One causes depression, the other inflation. Both are equally catastrophic to a nation.
What then are the chances for a new kind of “depression”?
Today, America and the West still have not learned their lesson. Money madness is still a fixation of a significant sector, especially of the U. S. public. (Alexander G. THE GREAT DEPRESSION COULD it Happen AGAIN? Plain Truth, December 1970)
Yes, a great depression could happen again.
A recession and/or depression is likely to become one of the final factors that will cause creditors to rise up and destroy the U.S.A.
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
Might the U.S.A. Be Gone by 2028? Could the USA be gone by the end of 2028 or earlier? There is a tradition attributed to the Hebrew prophet Elijah that humanity had 6,000 years to live before being replaced by God’s Kingdom. There are scriptures, writings in the Talmud, early Christian teachings that support this. Also, even certain Hindu writings support it. Here is a link to a related video: Is the USA prophesied to be destroyed by 2028? In Spanish: Seran los Estados Unidos Destruidos en el 2028?
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. Information is also in the YouTube sermons titled Where are the Ten Lost Tribes? Why does it matter? and British are the Covenant People. A short YouTube of prophetic interest may be: Are Chinese threats against Australia for real?
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2023, 2024, or 2025? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede la Gran Tribulación comenzar en el 2020 o 2021? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? A related video is: Great Tribulation: 2026 or 2027? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation start in 2022 or 2023? Notice also: Can Jesus return in 2023 or 2024? Here is a video in the Spanish language: Es El 2021 el año de La Gran Tribulación o el Grande Reseteo Financiero.
Lost Tribes and Prophecies: What will happen to Australia, the British Isles, Canada, Europe, New Zealand and the United States of America? Where did those people come from? Can you totally rely on DNA? What about other peoples? Do you really know what will happen to Europe and the English-speaking peoples? What about Africa, Asia, South America, and the Islands? This free online book provides scriptural, scientific, historical references, and commentary to address those matters. Here are links to related sermons: Lost tribes, the Bible, and DNA; Lost tribes, prophecies, and identifications; 11 Tribes, 144,000, and Multitudes; Israel, Jeremiah, Tea Tephi, and British Royalty; Gentile European Beast; Royal Succession, Samaria, and Prophecies; Asia, Islands, Latin America, Africa, and Armageddon; When Will the End of the Age Come?; Rise of the Prophesied King of the North; Christian Persecution from the Beast; WWIII and the Coming New World Order; and Woes, WWIV, and the Good News of the Kingdom of God.
Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction Can the USA survive two full presidential terms? In what ways are Joe Biden and Kamala Harris apocalyptic? This book has hundreds of prophecies and scriptures to provide details. A Kindle version is also available and you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to your free Kindle reader app (or if you already have one or a Kindle), you can go to: Biden-Harris: Prophecies and Destruction (Kindle) to get the book in seconds.
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