Beginnings of a Trade War: Church of God writers have long warned this would come to pass
January-March 2018 cover of Bible News Prophecy magazine
The European Union imposed increased tariffs on the US yesterday and Donald Trump threatened to massively increase tariffs on European automobiles:
23 June 2018
US President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to impose a 20 percent tariff on US imports of vehicles assembled in the European Union, in a move that would hit German automakers hard.
Trump threatened to escalate a trade war after the EU on Friday imposed retaliatory tariffs worth €2.8 billion ($3.26 billion) in response US tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports.
Read more: EU’s retaliatory tariffs on US products come into effect
“Based on the Tariffs and Trade Barriers long placed on the U.S. and its great companies and workers by the European Union, if these Tariffs and Barriers are not soon broken down and removed, we will be placing a 20% Tariff on all of their cars coming into the US,” Trump tweeted. “Build them here!” …
The US imposes a tariff of 2.5 percent on EU-assembled cars and a 25 percent levy on trucks. The EU imposes a 10 percent tariff on imports of US cars. …
Moving closer to major trade war
Trump’s announcement on automobile tariffs added fuel to anxiety-gripped markets, as the US and China are poised to escalate a trade war.
Trump on Monday threatened to impose tariffs of $200 billion of Chinese goods if Beijing retaliates following US plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports into the US. Trump administration policies have also escalated trade conflict with Canada, Mexico, Turkey and India.
“The US-EU trade dispute, when viewed alongside the US-China trade tensions, means that we are edging closer to a full-blown global trade war,” John Ferguson, the head of global forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told the AFP news agency.
“The concern here is how Mr. Trump responds — he may look to enact further tariffs, or even subsidize US farmers who are likely to feel the brunt of the tariffs from US trading partners,” he said. “Both of these moves from Mr. Trump would likely lead to a further response from the EU, and this is how a trade war breaks out.” http://www.dw.com/en/trade-war-fears-mount-as-donald-trump-threatens-eu-with-higher-automobile-tariffs/a-44358542
The US trade war with the world is well underway. In retaliation for Washington’s levy of duties on aluminum and steel from the European Union, the 28-country trading bloc has now imposed a plethora of tariffs on hundreds of US goods. 06/22/18 https://qz.com/1312466/eu-tariffs-all-of-the-us-products-that-will-have-higher-duties/
Notice that Europe calls them “retaliatory tariffs,” hence a punch against the USA.
Is it a trade war? Some have said so, but some feel that a full-blown trade war can be avoided–and that may be the case–for now:
So does all this add up to a trade war yet? After all, imposing tariffs, which are met with retaliatory tariffs, which are then met with even more retaliatory tariffs, is the kind of tit-for-that behavior global trading rules were designed to prevent. But so far, the EU has shied away from using the words “trade war” to describe the current dispute. As Cecilia Malmström, the EU’s trade commissioner, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour earlier this month, “I wouldn’t say that we are in a trade war, but we are in a very difficult situation that could escalate. … There are no winners in this, so we definitely hope this is something that does not materialize.”
But how do you know when it has materialized? Marianne Schneider-Petsinger, a U.S. geoeconomics fellow at the London-based Chatham House, told me a trade war requires two elements. “One is the tit-for-tat tariffs that set off a downward spiral of protectionism,” she said. Check. “The other element is that there is no more space for negotiations to potentially de-escalate the dispute.”
It’s this element that’s missing so far. Though the EU has previously stated that it will not negotiate under threat, the bloc hasn’t ruled out negotiations entirely. 06/22/18 https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/trade-war-us-europe/563504/
Europe still feels that it needs to negotiate with the USA, so some aspects of a full trade war will not happen yet–though what is happening now is at least a partial trade war.
Trade concerns have been heating up in the past year or so, but have accelerated in recent weeks to threats, tariffs, counter-tariffs, etc..
Church of God writers have warned about a coming trade war and related disputes for decades.
Back in 1971, the late Pastor General of the old Worldwide Church of God Herbert W. Armstrong wrote the following:
Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III?
Either we start raising high tariff barriers against other countries, starting a TRADE WAR which in time will trigger the nuclear war that will DESTROY US – or, American workers are going to have to MEET the competition of the workers in other countries, by lowering living standards. Obviously American workers are not going to choose to do the latter. And if they don’t – well, THE HANDWRITING IS ON OUR NATIONAL WALL. (Armstrong HW. Trade War Looming to Trigger World War III? Plain Truth, March 1971)
And while his basic impression of timing was off it is correct that trade issues will be a factor that will trigger WWIII. A war that will be against the USA, Canada, and UK by a power that will reorganize (Revelation 17:12-13; Must the Ten Kings of Revelation 17:12 Rule over Ten Currently Existing Nations?) and then rise in Europe (watch also Can You Prove that the Beast to Come is European?). A Europe that is angry at the UK for Brexit and one that is mad at the USA for a host of reasons (including decisions of its President-elect Donald Trump).
Several decades ago, Gene Hogberg of the old Worldwide Church of God wrote the following:
ENVISION the startling future of Western Europe. …
A new Western Europe controlling perhaps half of all world trade, by exclusive arrangements with dozens of nations who produce raw materials.
A “United States of Europe ” posses ing one single cttrrency – a currency so strong that it will replace the U. S. dollar as the kingpin currency of world trade. A United Europe developing great military strength to protect its unprecedented standard of living and its Number One position in the world. Visionary ideas?
Not at all.
Such a European powerhouse is now just over the horizon. …
Biggest Obstacle
The biggest obstacle to accomplishing this whole effort still remains. It’s the nagging political question. …
If Britain were not pleased with the ‘ way things are going in the Common Market by the end of 1975, she, along with any other dissatisfied member, could quit. In that case Britain would be Vlrtually isolated – cut off from Europe …
Handwriting Is on the Wall
It should be obvious that an expanding Europe will not forever tolerate monetary irresponsibility on the part of the United States – or look the other way should the U. S. institute protectionist trade legislation. The way things are now developing, it is only a ma tter of time before the Europeans cut loose from the dollar. They have already put the machinery in to motion. …
Should the dollar fail, a new European currency would automatically become the kingpin currency financing world trade. The dollar would become an unwanted commodity. Trading nations around the world would have to trade in the currency of this “beast” in order to survive. (Hogberg G. Rising World Colossus. Plain Truth, May 1971).
Prepare for Trade War
THE Free World’s 40-year period of unprecedented prosperity may soon come to a crashing halt. Support in the United States — the West’s leading trading nation — for maintaining free trade is crumbling fast.
Instead, there reverberate in the halls of Congress warnings to trade partners to open markets or face the retaliation of heightened tariffs and quotas. …
Mr. Reagan is painfully aware of where unbridled protectionism could lead. In recently rejecting a protectionist plea from one industry, the President evoked memories of the Depression — era Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. “Some of us remember the 1930s, when the most destructive trade bill in history, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, helped plunge this nation and the world into a decade of depression and despair,” he told a radio audience. “From now on, if the ghost of Smoot-Hawley rears its ugly head in Congress, if Congress creates a depression — making bill, I’ll fight it.”
But the ghost is rising, and support for the President’s trade policy is waning, even from those within his own party.
What Smoot-Hawley Did
Just how disastrous was the Smoot-Hawley bill? The devastating role it played in the Great Depression was explained in the September 5 issue of The Wall Street Journal, in an article written by its editor, Robert L. Bartley. “The stock-market crash of 1929 came in the midst of debate in Congress over the tariff,” wrote Mr. Bartley. “It had spent the year adding item after item to the protection list. In mid — 1930 the Smoot-Hawley Bill became law, with the highest tariffs in the nation’s history.” What might have been an ordinary correction, continued Mr. Bartley, “turned into the Great Depression…. As the international accounts closed down, the world economy choked.” …
Dangerous Security Changes
Other experts warn that American political leaders — responding to calls for immediate competitive relief from their constituents — may be ignoring another lesson of the Great Depression: that the severe contraction of world trade gave added impetus to imperialist surges in Asia and Europe, specifically Japan and Germany.
Since 1945 Japan has chosen the mercantile road as its path to power, prestige and national restoration. Germany, specifically the Federal Republic of Germany, is heavily dependent upon world trade, exporting a full third of its manufactured goods.
Access to the U.S. market is central to the economies of Japan and the other nations of the Pacific Basin, writes National Review executive editor John McLaughlin, “and hence perhaps to their stability.” If protectionism takes hold, what would happen to Japan and to Western Europe, whose economic heart is in Germany? Protectionism, leading to a full-blown trade war, would likely break the extensive joint defense relationships between the U.S. and its primary World War II foes, now allies for the past 40 years.
Americans should then prepare to witness the emergence of a nuclear — armed Japan as well as a nuclear — armed united Europe with Germany at its core. It’s doubtful whether the American public and its elected representatives have thought out the likely end results of actions now under way.
Former Senate majority leader Howard H. Baker Jr. sounded this warning: “The disastrous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was rushed through Congress… and it took 14 years and a world war to straighten out the mess.” (Hogberg G. Prepare for Trade War! Plain Truth, January 1986)
Notice something I wrote and posted back in 2008:
Negotiations will continue and some type of loose agreements will happen. In the spirit of accommodation and personal interest, many of the “standards” of the European Union will be adopted by the USA, Canada and Mexico, as well as by nearly all of the countries of the world. The Arab nations will most likely agree with many of the standards as they seem to be destined to form a brief end-time alliance with the Europeans (The Arab World In the Bible, History, and Prophecy).
However, over time, it will become increasingly clear that the British will be in more agreement with the Canadians and Americans and that the European Union in more agreement with the Mexicans than the EU will have with the English-speaking nations.
Trade wars and/or serious trade disputes will most likely arise.
The Brits will ultimately decide that they are more supportive of the Americans and Canadians. They will be so much more supportive that they will end up in a trading agreement with them (with the Australians and New Zealanders probably also becoming part of that agreement).
The EU will decide that Mexico and the rest of Latin America are in more agreement with it and thus make some type of serious trading agreement with most (or all) of Latin America. The Vatican will also have influence here as Latin America is highly Roman Catholic.
The Europeans and Americans, however, will continue to have military agreements, though many will be tense about them. (Thiel B. A Combined EU & North American Trade Block Coming? COGwriter.com, March 3, 2008)
Trade wars increase costs and international tensions. As far as Europe and Mexico go, in 2018 we saw EU and Mexico making a trade deal, partially to send Donald Trump a message.
As far as my own writings on trade go, notice the following two posts from 2013:
For at least two decades, I have believed that a split would happen between the USA and the Europeans partially because of how the Europeans will view how the USA handles/mishandles bilateral trade issues (USA debt, GMO foods, relative military decline of the USA, weather, etc. are likely to be other factors).
Thus, it is possible that a major trade deal will be the prelude for the disappointment to come. (Thiel B. Possible USA-EU trade deal: A prelude to the end? COGwriter, June 18, 2013)
Trade wars and other economic disagreements will be part of how European leaders will persuade many Europeans that the USA is not a friend, but an enemy. This is consistent with what I have been warning for years. …
The European Union is larger than the USA, generally has a total economic output greater than that of the USA, is (in some areas) becoming more technologically advanced than the USA, and can exert unique pressures on the USA. (Thiel B. EU Commissioner: USA espionage is for economic advantage, not terrorism. COGwriter, October 30, 2013)
Notice something from me in 2016:
Tariffs can lead to trade wars, and trade wars can lead to real wars. The Bible teaches that Europe will one day, relatively soon, dominate international trade (cf. Revelation 18). (Thiel B. Donald tweets and Boris speaks on tariffs. COGwriter.com, December 4, 2016)
Here is something from me a day before Donald Trump took office in 2017:
Trade wars have causalities and tariffs increase prices and can cause inflation.
Various nations will not like the policies that Donald Trump has advocated.
Trade wars have been listed as part of the Twelve ‘grey swan’ events to watch for in 2017?
Trade disputes are likely to be a factor that will lead to World War III. …
There is a cost to trade wars and tariffs. Those who think otherwise are fooling themselves. (Thiel B. ‘America’s Tariff Trouble’. COGwriter.com, January 19, 2017)
We are seeing the world move closer to trade wars.
Notice also the following:
Cecilia Malmstrom
“We did not want to be in this position,” EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said in a statement. …
“The rules of international trade that we have developed over the years with our American partners cannot be violated without a reaction from our side,” Malmstrom said. She called the EU’s response “measured, proportionate and fully in line with WTO rules.”
Trade war looming 06/20/18 http://www.dw.com/en/eu-to-impose-countertariffs-on-us-products-as-of-friday/a-44315190
Europe believes IT is following World Trade Organization (WTO) rules but the USA is not.
In December 2017, I warned in my article (and sermon 18 items to prophetically watch in 2018), 18 items to prophetically watch in 2018, that trade was one thing to watch:
7. Trade
Not all warfare is militaristic. There is also economic warfare.
This often involves trade.
Europe will get more involved.
For a time, Babylon will dominate world trade:
2 And he cried mightily with a loud voice, saying, “Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and has become a dwelling place of demons, a prison for every foul spirit, and a cage for every unclean and hated bird! 3 For all the nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth have become rich through the abundance of her luxury.” (Revelation 18:2-3).
While ‘Babylon’ will not reign in 2018, with the USA pulling out of trade deals and/or wishing to change them, steps are occurring that are pushing Europe to dominate trade (watch Trade Wars: Are COG warnings coming to pass?).
In the cover article of the January-March 2018 edition of Bible News Prophecy magazine, I wrote:
Trade wars increase costs and international tensions. …
US President Trump’s statements to the United Nations about trade and “America first” on September 19, 2017, further told parts of the world that the US wants to change trade practices in ways that many nations do not believe will be beneficial—and this helps open the door for the European Union
Additionally, European leaders have stated that they no longer want ‘subservience’ to the USA and want to put “Europe first” (in contrast to the “America first” campaign slogan that Donald Trump has used). …
The Europeans warned that the US sanctions bill could lead to a trade war—a trade war some EU leaders claimed that Europe would win.
While nations do not normally economically ‘win’ a trade war, political leaders have found them helpful for a variety of reasons.
Trade issues are important and consistent with end time biblical prophecies.
Events in the USA and Europe are aligning with the understanding of biblical prophecy that we in the Continuing Church of God hold and teach.
We in the Continuing Church of God “have also a more sure word of prophecy; whereunto ye do well that ye take heed, as unto a light that shineth in a dark place, until the day dawn, and the day star arise in your hearts” (2 Peter 1:19, KJV).”
In 2018, we have clearly seen trade disputes and what many have stated is a start of trade wars (see Finance expert says Europeans are in ‘over their heads’ as Trump TRADE WAR begins and China: ‘The US has launched a trade war’).
The USA has upset the Europeans and many others.
Trade will be a factor in what can be called World War III–and this war will be a conflict with Europe. But the ‘shooting’ aspect of this will not happen before 2022 (for some details, watch Can the Great Tribulation begin in 2018?).
The Europeans are taking steps that will not end well for the USA.
Yesterday’s tariffs were only a small step–more serious responses will happen in the future.
UPDATE: 06/24/18: Here is a link to our latest video: Trade Disputes: CCOG Warnings Are Coming to Pass.
Some items of possibly related interest may include:
Trade Wars: Are COG warnings coming to pass? Trade issues, tariffs, and talk of trade wars are in the news. Can trade wars lead to World War III like they did to World War II? Are the events going on with the USA, UK, Asia, and Europe consistent with warnings published by the true Church of God (COG) over the past several years and decades? Do Germany and China hope to take advantage of trade frictions involving the Trump Administration and the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement? What about Mexico and South America? Does the Bible teach that Europe will become a major trading power? Will the final European Babylonian trading power be destroyed? Dr. Thiel addresses these issues and more in this video.
18 items to prophetically watch in 2018 Much is happening. Dr. Thiel points to 18 in this article. Here is a link to a related sermon: 18 items to prophetically watch in 2018.
Donald Trump and Mexico’s future Mexico has increasingly been in the news because of statements and policies of US President Donald Trump. Many in Mexico are not intending to sit back and accept whatever Donald Trump attempts to force them to do. What will happen to Mexico? Will it make trade deals with Europe? Will it ultimately go to was against the USA? Will the Mexican economy drop at times and then improve? Dr. Thiel answers these questions and more in this video.
US Dollar being challenged by Gold-Petro-Yuan The US dollar has been the world’s primary reserve currency for decades. Is this about to change? What is going on with the Chinese yuan and oil and gold? What do the BRICS nations want? What did Venezuela do? Do the Europeans want to dislodge the US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency? Does US debt play any role? Does the Bible tell us what will happen to the USA and its dollar? What happens if the USA loses its status? Will gold outlast the US dollar? Dr. Thiel addresses those issues and more in this video.
Gentile Cryptocurrency Proposal Two Russian leaders have called for a BRICS-wide and/or EAEU-wide cryptocurrency. This is hoped to be used to replace the US dollar for international trade. BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The BRICS nations represent 3.6 billion people. The EAEU includes Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Will Gentiles rise up? Are there any prophetic ramifications of what these nations are looking to do? This is a video.
World War III: Steps in Progress Are there surprising actions going on now that are leading to WWIII? Might a nuclear attack be expected? Does the Bible promise protection to all or only some Christians? How can you be part of those that will be protected? A related video would be Is World War III About to Begin? Can You Escape?
Forbes’ Brexit Monster is the Beast of Revelation Various ones have been properly convinced that there is a plan for a European superstate. Forbes’ writer Tom Worstall wrote that the Brexit vote was about the United Kingdom “not joining the monster of the European Union to come.” The Bible tells of a Beast monster that will arise in the end times in Europe. Dr. Thiel cites news reports, as well as the Old and New Testaments, to show that the monster many fear will arise in Europe, despite the vote by the British to exit the European Union.
Post Brexit Prophecy On June 23, 2016, the voters of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) chose to leave the European Union. Now with this BRitish EXIT (Brexit) vote, what is prophesied to happen to the UK? Will the UK do well or be taken over and made slaves? Dr. Thiel explains from biblical prophecies what is ahead for the UK, Europe, and even the USA, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is a video.
How To Determine If Someone is a True Prophet of God There are many false prophets. How can Christians determine who is a true prophet? There is also a sermon-length video titled How to determine if someone is a true prophet of God. Here is a related link in Spanish/español: ¿Cómo determinar si alguien es un verdadero profeta de Dios?
Just What Do You Mean — Repentance? Do you know what repentance is? Have you truly repented? Repented of what? Herbert W. Armstrong wrote this as a booklet on this important subject.
Who is the King of the North? Is there one? Do biblical and Roman Catholic prophecies for the Great Monarch point to the same leader? Should he be followed? Who will be the King of the North discussed in Daniel 11? Is a nuclear attack prophesied to happen to the English-speaking peoples of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand? When do the 1335 days, 1290 days, and 1260 days (the time, times, and half a time) of Daniel 12 begin? When does the Bible show that economic collapse will affect the United States? In the Spanish language check out ¿Quién es el Rey del Norte? Here is a link to a video titled: The Future King of the North.
Does God Have a 6,000 Year Plan? What Year Does the 6,000 Years End? Was a 6000 year time allowed for humans to rule followed by a literal thousand year reign of Christ on Earth taught by the early Christians? Does God have 7,000 year plan? What year may the six thousand years of human rule end? When will Jesus return? 2026 or 20xx? There is also a video titled 6000 Years: When will God’s Kingdom Come? Here is a link to the article in Spanish: ¿Tiene Dios un plan de 6,000 años?
When Will the Great Tribulation Begin? 2018, 2019, or 2020? Can the Great Tribulation begin today? What happens before the Great Tribulation in the “beginning of sorrows”? What happens in the Great Tribulation and the Day of the Lord? Is this the time of the Gentiles? When is the earliest that the Great Tribulation can begin? What is the Day of the Lord? Who are the 144,000? Here is a version of the article in the Spanish language: ¿Puede comenzar la Gran Tribulación en 2018 o 2019? ¿Es el Tiempo de los Gentiles? You can also see the English language sermon videos: The Great Tribulation from the Mount of Olives and Can the Great Tribulation begin before 2020? A shorter video is: Can the Great Tribulation begin in 2018?
The Times of the Gentiles Has there been more than one time of the Gentiles? Are we in it now or in the time of Anglo-America? What will the final time of the Gentiles be like? A related sermon is available and is titled: The Times of the Gentiles.
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Must the Ten Kings of Revelation 17:12 Rule over Ten Currently Existing Nations? Some claim that these passages refer to a gathering of 10 currently existing nations together, while one group teaches that this is referring to 11 nations getting together. Is that what Revelation 17:12-13 refers to? The ramifications of misunderstanding this are enormous. A related sermon is titled Ten Kings of Revelation and the Great Tribulation.
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Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. Information is also in the YouTube sermons titled Where are the Ten Lost Tribes? Why does it matter? and British are the Covenant People. A short YouTube of prophetic interest may be: Are Chinese threats against Australia for real?
Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
British are the Covenant People What do ‘British’ and ‘Britain’ mean in Hebrew? Are the descendants of the Anglo-Saxons people of the covenant? Does the British royal family connect to the throne of David? What does the Bible teach? What does history show us? Is there any DNA evidence related to British-Israelism? When did Christianity make it to the British Isles? Could Jeremiah have made it to the British Isles? What type of Christians made it to the British Isles? Did the last King of England believe in British Israelism?
Donald Trump in Prophecy Prophecy, Donald Trump? Are there prophecies that Donald Trump may fulfill? Are there any prophecies that he has already helped fulfill? Is a Donald Trump presidency proving to be apocalyptic? Two related videos are available: Donald: ‘Trump of God’ or Apocalyptic? and Donald Trump’s Prophetic Presidency.
Trump Presidency Magic 8 Ball or Bible Prophecy? BBC reported that one might as well use a ‘Magic Eight-Ball’ to try to predict what will happen in the remaining time of Donald Trump’s presidency. What is a ‘Magic Eight-Ball’? Dr. Thiel not only explains that, but also briefly goes over 10 biblically-based warnings he wrote would happen if Donald Trump were elected that have already began to come to pass. He also goes over something he wrote back in 2008 that the Trump presidency is also helping lead to fulfillment. Should you trust Bible prophecy or not? Dr. Thiel says that Bible prophecy can be trusted, despite the view of skeptics and others that either overlook or despise the Bible. This is a video.
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