RAND: Peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians would mean billions in economic gains

Symbol of Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

We all know that war is costly. A new RAND study attempted to quantify the economic benefits if Israel and the Palestinians would make a truly successful peace deal:

June 8, 2015

JERUSALEM—Israelis and Palestinians would gain billions of dollars from making peace with each other while both would face daunting economic losses in case of other alternatives, particularly in case of a return to violence, according to a new study released on Monday.

The RAND Corp., a U.S.-based nonprofit research organization, interviewed some 200 officials from the region and elsewhere during more than two years of research into the costs of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Its main finding was that following a peace agreement, Israelis stood to gain $120 billion over the course of a decade. The Palestinians would gain $50 billion, marking a 36-percent rise in their average per-capita income, the report said.

In contrast, the Israeli economy would lose some $250 billion in foregone economic opportunities in a return to violence, and the Palestinians would see their per-capita gross domestic product fall by as much as 46 percent, the report said.

The findings are in line with long-time arguments that peace is in the economic interest of both sides.

“We hope our analysis and tools can help Israelis, Palestinians and the international community understand more clearly how present trends are evolving and recognize the costs and benefits of alternatives to the current destructive cycle of action, reaction and inaction,” said C. Ross Anthony, co-leader of the study and director of RAND’s Israeli-Palestinian Initiative.

The study looked into five different scenarios: a two-state solution, a coordinated unilateral withdrawal, an uncoordinated unilateral withdrawal, nonviolent resistance and a violent uprising. Not surprisingly, the economic benefit for both sides dropped considerably in each alternative scenario down the ladder.

Some of the elements of the nonviolent resistance scenario are already unfolding with Palestinians taking actions to put economic and international pressure on Israel. The study found that Israelis could lose $80 billion and Palestinians could lose $12 billion relative to current trends. But compared with a two-state solution, losses from the non-violent resistance scenario become even more dramatic: about $200 billion for the Israelis and $60 billion for the Palestinians.

RAND teams are currently in the region, presenting their findings to both Israeli and Palestinians officials. The study was funded by an independent donor and the think tank insisted it was not advocating, just providing tools for leaders to make good decisions.

In reaching their conclusions, researchers devised a “cost-of-conflict calculator” that factored in issues like Israel’s defense budget, its trade relations and what it would cost to relocate West Bank settlers. For Palestinians, variable costs included potential destruction of property, freedom of movement and banking regulations.

The Palestinians seek the West Bank and Gaza Strip as part of their future state, yet numerous rounds of peace talks have been unsuccessful.

“A two-state solution produces by far the best economic outcomes for both Israelis and Palestinians,” said Charles Ries, co-leader of the study and an executive at RAND. “In a decade, the average Israeli would see his or her income rise by about $2,200, versus a $1,000 gain for Palestinians, compared with our projection for present trends. But that only works out to 5 percent for each Israeli versus 36 percent for the average Palestinian, meaning Israelis have far less and Palestinians far more economic incentive to move toward peace.”

RAND spokesman Jeffrey Hiday said copies of the study had been sent to officials on both sides of the conflict, including the Israeli prime minister’s office and Foreign Ministry and the Palestinian Finance Ministry. http://www.voanews.com/content/ap-study-israelis-palestinians-would-gain-billions-from-peace/2811777.html

There is no doubt that war, terrorism, and violent conflict hurts not only the economy, but every day life. It must also be concluded that Israeli and Palestinian leaders realize this. However, since it takes both sides to have peace, it remains elusive there.

However, according to biblical prophecy a type of peace deal will come to the region BEFORE Jesus returns.

It will be a temporary ‘peace deal’ (see the article The ‘Peace Deal’ of Daniel 9:27). Neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians will like the deal very much and the reality is that it will not end well for Israel. Lands that Israel currently claims will end up under control by those who are currently in opposition to Israel according to the Bible. A European leader will also be involved.

This all has to do with Daniel 9:26-27 which states:

26 And the people of the prince who is to come Shall destroy the city and the sanctuary. The end of it shall be with a flood, And till the end of the war desolations are determined. 27 Then he shall confirm a covenant with many for one week; But in the middle of the week He shall bring an end to sacrifice and offering. And on the wing of abominations shall be one who makes desolate, Even until the consummation, which is determined, Is poured out on the desolate (Daniel 9:26-27).

The ‘one week’ has generally been understood by prophecy watchers to mean a seven year deal, that is broken in the middle of it (after 3 1/2 years).

There are several reasons that this “prince” in Daniel 9 is referring to the leader of the developing European empire (see King of the North and Europa, the Beast, and the Book of Revelation). One is that it was the people of the Roman Empire of the 1st century that fulfilled the portion of Daniel 9:26 as they destroyed the city (Jerusalem) in 70 A.D. The European Union includes much of the land and peoples that were part of the ancient Roman Empire. And it is the “prince” coming from that people that verse 27 is referring to. Thus, this prophecy tells us that a lower level European leader will somewhat officially start to rise up about 3 1/2 years before the great tribulation (and yes, according to Jesus, some “tribulation” does happen prior to the start of the Great Tribulation). Another is the fact that the “beast of the sea” (Revelation 13:1) fits with the beasts from the “great sea” (Daniel 7:2)–and that is the Mediterranean Sea according to the Old Testament–hence this is an empire like the old Roman one (for more details, please see Europa, the Beast, and the Book of Revelation).

This portion of scripture in Daniel seems to be discussing some type of peace deal that the Europeans will either propose or at least one from Europe will endorse. Those that claim that the “prince to come” in Daniel 9:26 is Jesus and that He is the one that confirms a covenant with many for one week, etc., will not understand what is happening related to this deal. The “prince to come” is the final European King of the North. He is the one in Daniel 11:31 who fulfills bringing the end of the sacrifice and offering 3 1/2 years (the middle of a seven year prophetic week). Jesus did not destroy the city nor the sanctuary, nor is there a biblical record that He confirmed a seven-year covenant. Perhaps it should also be pointed out that for sacrifices to stop, they first must start–it may very well be that the Israeli government will allow them after the deal of Daniel 9:27 is put together and/or confirmed. Although they could start earlier, after the deal seems to be more likely–and we know that they do occur after the deal (the Bible does not state whether they begin prior to the deal).

Why is this believed to be a type of ‘peace deal’?

There are several reasons, but notice some other scriptures that discuss this leader:

25 And through his policy also he shall cause craft to prosper in his hand; and he shall magnify himself in his heart, and by peace shall destroy many: he shall also stand up against the Prince of princes; but he shall be broken without hand. (Daniel 8:25, KJV).

23 And after the league is made with him he shall act deceitfully, for he shall come up and become strong with a small number of people. 24 He shall enter peaceably, even into the richest places of the province; and he shall do what his fathers have not done, nor his forefathers: he shall disperse among them the plunder, spoil, and riches; and he shall devise his plans against the strongholds, but only for a time. (Daniel 11:23-24, NKJV)

So this leader gives people the impression that there will be “peace” and is involved in some type of deal. Term is translated as “peace” in Daniel 8:25 is from the Hebrew term shalvah and essentially means security. In other words, this leader will destroy “many” who are under the impression that they are secure because of some type of security and/or trade arrangement. Such arrangements are now commonly referred to as peace deals or treaties. But as the prophesied one has not been confirmed, at least not publicly, the Great Tribulation would seem to be at least 3 1/2 years away (you may also wish to watch a YouTube video titled Can the Great Tribulation begin in 2014?). Verse 24 also shows that this leader will somehow also be accumulating wealth. Perhaps to back up a European supported currency, he may end up with personal and/or national gold reserves and/or wealth from the Vatican. The Vatican has a vast amount of wealth and is prophesied to be improperly involved with the kings of the earth in the end times per Revelation 17. A pope will probably endorse/encourage the deal (cf. Revelation 13:11-17). This ‘prince’ of Daniel 9:27 is not representing Russia as Russia is NOT the King of the North of biblical prophecy.

Although Jesus said that the ‘peacemakers’ are blessed (Matthew 5:9), He also warned about those who like like sheep/lambs that are truly dangerous:

15 “Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravenous wolves. (Matthew 7:15)

11 Then I saw another beast coming up out of the earth, and he had two horns like a lamb and spoke like a dragon. (Revelation 13:11)

People will be misled about the deal and will tend to believe it is good (1 Thessalonians 5:3; cf. Ezekiel 13:10-14). USA political leaders, such as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have endorsed proposals for peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis that could be modified and perhaps temporarily adopted. Destruction of the USA will happen about three and 1/2 years after the deal is confirmed by the European leader (cf. Daniel 9:27, 11:31-39).

Notice something that the Apostle Paul wrote about:

3 For when they say, “Peace and safety!” then sudden destruction comes upon them, as labor pains upon a pregnant woman. And they shall not escape. 4 But you, brethren, are not in darkness, so that this Day should overtake you as a thief. (1 Thessalonians 5:3-4)

Many will NOT understand but will be deceived about the temporal peace that will come.

Based upon what the Bible teaches about the seven churches of Revelation 2 & 3, it is my position that the seven-year component of the deal in Daniel 9:27 will not be clear enough to Catholics, Protestants, nor most who claim to be in the Church of God for them to realize this is the deal. Just like they do not consider certain prophetic matters clear enough (e.g. How To Determine If Someone is a True Prophet of God), the vast majority will not truly understand the prophetic implications when the related deal is made.

I also should add that there are also biblical reasons to believe that the Vatican will be involved in the peace deal and items that happen prophetically thereafter. The Vatican wants more access to certain sites in Jerusalem (such as Church of God on Jerusalem’s Western Hill) and wants to establish itself as an intermediary between more nations and has taken some steps related to this. The Vatican more officially ‘recognized’ the ‘state’ of Palestine last month (see Vatican recognizes Palestinian state).

Anyway, like the RAND study indicates, there certainly are economic and other benefits to peace–and these may well be factors in getting the Israelis and Palestinians to make a real, though temporary, deal.

However, real lasting peace will not occur until the establishment of the true Kingdom of God (Isaiah 2:4; Micah 4:3, Revelation 21). Until then, the Bible warns of times of false declarations of peace (e.g. 1 Thessalonians 5:3; Ezekiel 13:10-14). Christians need to watch and pray (Luke 21:36) and not be deceived like the world will be (2 Thessalonians 2:9-12).

Some items of possibly related interest may include:

The ‘Peace Deal’ of Daniel 9:27 This prophecy could give up to 3 1/2 years advance notice of the coming Great Tribulation. Will most ignore or misunderstand its fulfillment? Here is a link to a related sermon video Daniel 9:27 and the Start of the Great Tribulation.
How Will Middle East Peace be Brought About? Can humans bring peace to the Middle East? Here is a link to a related video: Middle East Peace? When?
Jerusalem: Past, Present, and Future What does the Bible say about Jerusalem and its future? Is Jerusalem going to be divided and eliminated? Is Jesus returning to the area of Jerusalem? There is also a related YouTube video you can watch titled Jerusalem To be divided and eliminated.
Gaza and the Palestinians in Bible Prophecy What does the Bible teach about Gaza and the fate of the Palestinians? Here is a link to a related video: Gaza and Palestine in Prophecy.
United Nations: Humankind’s Last Hope or New World Order? Is the UN the last hope for humanity? Or might its goals end up with sinister results? A related video would be United Nations and Vatican Are Planning the New World Order.
Is the Future King of the South Rising Up? Some no longer believe there needs to be a future King of the South. Might Egypt, Islam, Iran, Arabs, or Ethiopia be involved? Might this King be called the Mahdi or Caliph? What does the Bible say? A YouTube video of related interest may be: The Future King of the South is Rising.
The Arab and Islamic World In the Bible, History, and Prophecy The Bible discusses the origins of the Arab world and discusses the Middle East in prophecy. What is ahead for the Middle East and those who follow Islam? What about the Imam Mahdi? What lies ahead for Turkey, Iran, and the other non-Arabic Muslims? An item of possibly related interest in the Spanish language would be: Líderes iraníes condenan la hipocresía de Occidente y declaran que ahora es tiempo para prepararse para el Armagedón, la guerra, y el Imán Mahdi.
The Prophesied ‘Islamic’ Confederation Where is an Islamic caliphate prophesied? Will one happen? Should you be concerned about it? Here is a link to a related video video: Will an Arabic Calphiphate Destroy the West?
Will the Interfaith Movement Lead to Peace or Sudden Destruction? Is the interfaith movement going to lead to lasting peace or is it warned against?
Anglo – America in Prophecy & the Lost Tribes of Israel Are the Americans, Canadians, English, Scottish, Welsh, Australians, Anglo-Saxon (non-Dutch) Southern Africans, and New Zealanders descendants of Joseph? Where are the lost ten-tribes of Israel? Who are the lost tribes of Israel? What will happen to Jerusalem and the Jews in Israel? Will God punish the U.S.A., Canada, United Kingdom, and other Anglo-Saxon nations? Why might God allow them to be punished first? Here is a link to the Spanish version of this article: Anglo-América & las Tribus Perdidas de Israel. Information is also in the YouTube sermons titled Where are the Ten Lost Tribes? Why does it matter? and British are the Covenant People. A short YouTube of prophetic interest may be Barack Obama and the State of the Apocalypse.
Will the Anglo-Saxon Nations be Divided and Have People Taken as Slaves? Will the lands of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand be divided? What about Jerusalem? What does Bible prophecy teach? Are there non-biblical prophecies that support this idea? Who will divide those lands? Who will end up with the lands and the people? Here is a link to a video titled Will the USA and other Anglo-nations be Divided and Their People Made Slaves? Here is a related item in the Spanish language ¿Serán divididas las naciones anglosajonas?
British are the Covenant People What do ‘British’ and ‘Britain’ mean in Hebrew? Are the descendants of the Anglo-Saxons people of the covenant? Does the British royal family connect to the throne of David? What does the Bible teach? What does history show us? Is there any DNA evidence related to British-Israelism? When did Christianity make it to the British Isles? Could Jeremiah have made it to the British Isles? What type of Christians made it to the British Isles? Did the last King of England believe in British Israelism?
World War III: Steps in Progress Are there surprising actions going on now that are leading to WWIII? Might a nuclear attack be expected? Does the Bible promise protection to all or only some Christians? How can you be part of those that will be protected? A related video would be Is World War III About to Begin? Can You Escape?
Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Edition for Second Obama Term This is a 160 page book for people truly interested in prophecies related to Barack Obama and the United States, including learning about many that have already been fulfilled (which the book documents in detail) and those that will be fulfilled in the future. It also has a chapter about a Republican choice. This book is available to order at www.barackobamaprophecy.com. The physical book can also be purchased at Amazon from the following link: Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States: Is Barack Obama Fulfilling Biblical, Islamic Catholic, Kenyan, and other America-Related Prophecies? What About Republican Leaders? Second Edition for Second Obama Term.
Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Term-Amazon Kindle edition. This electronic version is available for only US$2.99. And you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to for your free Kindle reader and then go to Barack Obama, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Second Term-Amazon Kindle edition.
Hillary Clinton, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States This is a 188 page book for people truly interested in prophecies related to Hillary Clinton and the United States, including learning about many that have already been fulfilled and those that will be fulfilled in the future. It also discusses Republicans. The physical book can be purchased at Amazon from the following link: Hillary Clinton, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States: Is Hillary Clinton Fulfilling Biblical, Islamic Catholic, Hopi, and other America-Related Prophecies? $11.99.
Hillary Clinton, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Amazon Kindle edition. This electronic version of the 188 page print edition is available for only US$3.99. And you do not need an actual Kindle device to read it. Why? Amazon will allow you to download it to almost any device: Please click HERE to download one of Amazon s Free Reader Apps. After you go to for your free Kindle reader and then go to Hillary Clinton, Prophecy, and the Destruction of the United States-Amazon Kindle edition.